I thought the Kentucky Derby picture would become clearer to me following the Grade I Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, Grade I Blue Grass Stakes and Grade II Wood Memorial last Saturday (April 8).
I was wrong.
Oh, I did not have a great deal of trouble coming with a Top 10 this week. It was ranking them that gave me a headache. I would jot down my Top 10, look at it, then adjust it. I kept doing that over and over and over until I finally settled on the rankings.
I now see this as a wide-open Kentucky Derby. I think Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin put it well when writing this week that “this is the kind of year when any of the Top 12 or so horses can win the [Kentucky] Derby without it being a surprise, so all we can do is see how the race shapes up and see who gets the best trip.”
Below is my Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week, followed by the horse’s current ranking by the Thoroughbred Daily News’ T.D. Thornton, the aforementioned Haskin and BloodHorse’s Byron King:
My Ranking Horse (TDN, Haskin, BloodHorse)
1. Practical Move (1, 4, 4)
2. Kingsbarns (6, 10, 7)
3. Tapit Trice (5, 2, 2)
4. Angel of Empire (9, 5, 3)
5. Forte (2, 1, 1)
6. Derma Sotogake (15, 3, 8)
7. Skinner (13, 9, 10)
8. Two Phil’s (10, 8, 5)
9. Mandarin Hero (11, 12, not ranked in the BH Top 12)
10. Verifying (4, 6, 6)
Now here is a horse-by-horse look at my Top 10:
1. PRACTICAL MOVE (trainer Tim Yakteen). I have had Practical Move ranked No. 1 each week since his win in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes on March 4. When he won the Santa Anita Derby by just a nose last weekend, I initially seriously considered moving him down on my Top 10 this week.
One of the reasons I am keeping Practical Move at the top of the list is he was credited with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure for his Santa Anita performance, matching his figure in the San Felipe.
Practical Move is going to be the only Kentucky Derby entrant this year with more than one triple-digit Beyer. That in itself makes him a serious player in the May 6 classic. (The fact that no other Kentucky Derby candidate owns more than a single triple-digit Beyer also might be telling us that this 3-year-old male class might not be a particularly strong one).
The TDN’s Thornton points out that Practical Move’s winning time of 1:48.69 in the Santa Anita Derby has the distinction of being the fastest of all the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Derby qualifying stakes races in 2022-23.
Additionally, Thornton notes that Practical Move won the two fastest 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Derby qualifying stakes races in 2022-23. Practical Move won the Grade II Los Alamitos Futurity in 1:41.65. He won the San Felipe in 1:42.01.
Thorton, like yours truly, has Practical Move ranked No. 1 for the Kentucky Derby this week.
“Practical Move leapfrogs into the No. 1 spot because his well-executed Santa Anita Derby score (100 Beyer Speed Figure) asserts him as the no-nonsense ‘momentum’ horse heading to Louisville,” Thorton wrote. “In winning the strongest of the three nine-furlong preps run Saturday [April 8], this son of Practical Joke pressured the field into submission, and he has not yet indicated he is close to bottoming out, stamina-wise. His stay-in-touch stalking style and obvious comfort level at being covered up on the inside are highly desirable traits for a [Kentucky] Derby contender.”
Of course, inasmuch as I stand to collect nearly $17,000 on a $200 Kentucky Derby future bet I made on Practical Move at odds of 83-1 on Feb. 12 if he wins the roses, I am delighted to see Thornton has him ranked No. 1.
Thornton wrote that Practical Move “has not yet indicated he is close to bottoming out, stamina-wise,” but I must admit that what Practical Move did in the final furlong of the Santa Anita Derby does concern me. When he was in front by one length a furlong out, I was looking for him to kick clear and win by something like two or three lengths. But instead of that, he had to dig deep and run his heart out to eke out a win by the slimmest of margins.
Yes, Practical Move deserves much credit for being so game in victory last Saturday. But in light of a narrow win when stretched out to 1 1/8 miles, I can’t help wondering if being asked to travel 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May might be farther than he truly wants to go. There really is no getting around the fact that Practical Move is a son of Practical Joke, who was pretty much a sprinter/miler.
Nevertheless, even though Practical Move’s lead in the Santa Anita Derby shrank from one length to a nose in the last furlong, Thornton obviously is of the opinion that the colt has the right stuff to become a Kentucky Derby winner by ranking him No. 1.
“Practical Move has yet to display an overdriven ‘Wow!’ gear late in the lane,” Thornton wrote. “But being able to crank up the torque without being flashy about it can certainly earn a blanket of roses on Derby day.”
2. KINGSBARNS (trainer Todd Pletcher). I have Practical Move and Kingsbarns ranked 1-2 primarily in the belief that they both could find themselves in a good, forward position early in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby, which doesn’t appear to be loaded with front-running types this year.
Thornton points out that eight of the last nine Kentucky Derbies have been won by horses racing either right up front or just off the lead.
My thinking on Kingsbarns is we just don’t know how good he is at this point. Is he the Justify of 2023?
Kingsbarns is three for three, winning by 1 3/4, 7 3/4 and 3 1/2 lengths.
Justify likewise was three for three going into the Kentucky Derby, winning by 9 1/2, 6 1/2 and 3 lengths. He won the Kentucky Derby by 2 1/2 lengths while on his way to a sweep of the coveted Triple Crown.
One difference between Kingsbarns and Justify are their Beyers. Kingsbarns’ figures have been 74, 85, 95. Justify’s first three Beyers were 104, 102 and 107.
While Kingsbarns’ first three Beyers have been lower than Justify’s, I do like Kingsbarns’ improving pattern. If he continues the upward trajectory in the Kentucky Derby, he has as good a chance of winning as anyone.
I know a lot of people knock Kingsbarns because he got away with setting a slow pace in the Louisiana Derby. But it’s not as if he’s a need-the-early-lead colt style-wise. He won his first two races from off the pace. I think he actually might be better off having a target to run at on the first Saturday in May.
Justify became the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby without have raced as a 2-year-old since Apollo in 1882. Will Kingsbarns be the third to do it? I think it could happen.
3. TAPIT TRICE (trainer Todd Pletcher). I had Tapit Trice ranked No. 5 last week. He climbs to No. 3 this week off his win in the Blue Grass. The $1.3 million auction purchase now has reeled off four consecutive victories since finishing third in his career debut.
There were two things that I really liked about Tapit Trice’s Blue Grass. First, he wasn’t as far back on the backstretch in the Blue Grass as he had been when he won the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby. Second, like Practical Move in the Santa Anita Derby, Tapit Trice showed the gameness needed in order to narrowly prevail in a fierce battle down to the wire.
It’s also meaningful to me that Tapit Trice was able to make his rally early enough in the Blue Grass to be second with a furlong left to run. This indicates that he is capable of being first or second with a furlong remaining in the Kentucky Derby. And that’s very important to me because 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second a furlong out.
4. ANGEL OF EMPIRE (trainer Brad Cox). Cox has felt all along that Angel of Empire is the type who would relish running in races at 1 1/8 miles and longer. This certainly has proven to be the case in that the Pennsylvania-bred Classic Empire colt heads to the Kentucky Derby off back-to-back 1 1/8-mile successes in Fair Grounds’ Grade II Risen Star Stakes and Oaklawn Park’s Grade I Arkansas Derby.
Angel of Empire’s Arkansas Derby was especially impressive in that he sustained a long rally. Also, it was significant to me that he managed to already be 2 1/2 lengths in front a furlong out, then increased his advantage to win by 4 1/4 lengths.
In other words, Angel of Empire’s Arkansas Derby effort strongly suggests that he isn’t a come-from-the-clouds 3-year-old who seemingly has little chance of being first or second with a furlong to go in the Kentucky Derby.
Meanwhile, I’d say that it has to be considered a plus for Angel of Empire that Flavien Prat has opted to ride him instead of Kingsbarns in the Kentucky Derby. Prat won the Arkansas Derby on Angel Empire after taking the Louisiana Derby aboard Kingsbarns.
All in all, I see Angel of Empire as being a serious threat in the Kentucky Derby.
5. FORTE (trainer Todd Pletcher). Talk about holding a strong hand. Pletcher trains No. 2 Kingsbarns, No. 3 Tapit Trice and No. 5 Forte.
Forte was last year’s Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male champion. He was a three-time Grade I winner last year during a campaign highlighted by a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
After being the top 2-year-old male, Forte also might be the top 3-year-old male. He goes into the Kentucky Derby off wins this year in Gulfstream’s Grade II Fountain of Youth and Grade I Florida Derby.
I respect Forte a lot for what he has accomplished so far. He’s tasted defeat just once in seven career starts.
Then why in the heck don’t I have Forte ranked higher than No. 5? The answer is, unlike fellow Pletcher trainees Kingsbarns and Tapit Trice, Forte’s Beyers are going in the wrong direction.
After Forte registered a 100 Beyer in the BC Juvenile, he ran a 98 in the Fountain of Youth, then slid further down to a 95 in the Florida Derby.
In addition to Forte’s declining Beyers, a big concern I have is he was third at the eighth pole in the Fountain of Youth, then fifth at that point in the Florida Derby.
That raises a red flag to me in that there is a distinct possibility Forte will not be first or second a furlong out in the Kentucky Derby. Again, if he’s not one-two with a furlong to go in the Kentucky Derby, the odds will be against him winning. As mentioned earlier, 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second at with a furlong left to run.
6. DERMA SOTOGAKE (trainer Hidetaka Otonashi). I, for one, certainly won’t be surprised if Derma Sotogake wins the Kentucky Derby. I also won’t be surprised if he finishes fifth or worse.
Japanese horses are running big races all over the globe. Just last Saturday, Mandarin Hero posted a 100 Beyer Speed Figure when he came within a whisker of winning the Santa Anita Derby despite having previously raced exclusively at a so-called B track in Japan.
Not only did Derma Sotogake win the UAE Derby emphatically by 5 1/2 lengths, he led a 1-2-3-4 sweep in the Grade II event by Japanese runners.
Derma Sotogake is considered to be superior to Mandarin Hero. Hence, considering what a fine race Mandarin Hero ran in defeat in the Santa Anita Derby, it’s perfectly understandable why so many think Derma Sotogake has a huge chance to win the Kentucky Derby.
The fly in the ointment for Derma Sotogake is the abysmal record by UAE starters in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish of 18 UAE starters in the Kentucky Derby was fifth by Master of Hounds in 2011.
The best finish by a winner of the UAE Derby was sixth by China Visit all the way back in 2000.
This year’s UAE Derby and Group I Dubai World Cup for older horses do not have official Beyer Speed Figures. However, Randy Moss of the Beyer Speed Figure-making team has said that the estimate is that Derma Sotogake not only would have run a triple-digit figure in the UAE Derby, his figure would be higher than that of Ushba Tesora for his win in the Dubai World Cup.
Derma Sotogake’s final time in the UAE Derby was 1:55.81, making it the second-fastest since the race’s distance was changed to 1,900 meters, or about 1 3/16 miles, in 2010. The fastest winner at this distance was Mendelssohn’s 1:55.18 when he won by 18 1/2 lengths in 2018.
In the Kentucky Derby, Mendelssohn was banged around early before finishing last in the field of 20.
Derma Sotogake is a very talented equine athlete. And like Practical Move and Kingsbarns, the Japanese star’s early speed should play well in this year’s Kentucky Derby. But can he overcome the UAE Derby jinx?
7. SKINNER (trainer John Shirreffs). What makes Skinner look scary to me as a possible Kentucky Derby victor is it seems he’s getting better and better for a horseman who is outstanding in terms of being able to have a horse peak for an important race.
Shirreffs, best known as trainer of the great Zenyatta, won the 2005 Kentucky Derby with Giacomo. I think Skinner might well be better than Giacomo.
Giacomo finished second in the San Felipe, then fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, then peaked on the first Saturday in May to pull off a Kentucky Derby upset. His Beyers in those three races were 93, then 95, then 100.
Skinner finished third in the San Felipe, then a much closer third in the Santa Anita Derby. His Beyers in those two races were 94, then 99.
If Skinner’s Beyer trend continues, he stands a good chance to record a triple-digit Beyer in the Kentucky Derby. That makes him dangerous at what should be a very nice price, though probably nowhere close to Giacomo’s Kentucky Derby odds of 50-1.
8. TWO PHIL’S (trainer Larry Rivelli). This is the 3-year-old who will boast the highest Beyer Speed Figure among the 2023 Kentucky Derby participants, a 101 he received when he won Turfway Park’s Grade III Jeff Ruby by 5 1/2 lengths on March 25.
But that 101 Beyer came in a race that was run on a synthetic surface. Did Two Phil’s look so terrific and reach 101 on the Beyer scale in the Jeff Ruby because of the synthetic surface?
The main reason I don’t have Two Phil’s ranked higher than No. 8 is the top Beyer that he’s recorded on dirt is only an 88.
But one also should be aware of the possibility that Two Phil’s came up with such a glittering performance in the Jeff Ruby because he is blossoming at this time of the year, as 3-year-olds sometimes do, such as Charismatic in 1999.
9. MANDARIN HERO (trainer Bokujo Fujita). With 40 points to his credit, Mandarin Hero is going to need help to get into the Kentucky Derby. But if he somehow does get into the race, he is not one to cavalierly dismiss after losing the Santa Anita Derby by a only a nose.
Mandarin Hero started off his racing career with four straight wins in Japan. He then finished second to Hero Call in Japan’s Kumostori Sho at about 1 1/8 miles on Feb. 23 in his 2023 debut. His past performances show him losing that race by a neck. Well, when I watch the video on YouTube, I do not agree with that margin. It appears to me that he gets beat by one length or maybe three-quarters of a length, but definitely more than by a neck.
This is a link to Mandarin Hero’s Kumostori Sho on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwUpR81qYjc
10. VERIFYING (trainer Brad Cox). Largely because of Verifying’s breeding, I have had my eye on him ever since he won a six-furlong maiden special weight race when unveiled at Saratoga last summer.
Verifying, whose sire is 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, is a half-brother to Midnight Bisou, who was voted a 2019 Eclipse Award as champion older female dirt champion.
In his first 2023 start, Verifying won a one-mile allowance/optional claiming contest at Oaklawn by 5 1/4 lengths. But he then finished fourth in Oaklawn’s Grade II Rebel Stakes on Feb. 25, a race in which he ran a sloppy track and didn’t have the best of trips.
Back on dry land in the Blue Grass last Saturday, Verifying rebounded from his disappointing Rebel to finish second in the Blue Grass. At the end of a fierce battle with Tapit Trice in the final furlong, Verifying lost the Blue Grass by a neck.
Verifying ran too good to lose last Saturday. It looks like he might have a big say in the Kentucky Derby, though I like Tapit Trice better than Verifying at 1 1/4 miles.
LEXINGTON STAKES SELECTIONS
Keeneland’s Lexington Stakes, the final race offering points toward the 2023 Kentucky Derby, will be contested at 1 1/16 miles this Saturday (April 15). The Grade III affair has 20-8-6-4-2 Kentucky Derby points up for grabs.
My top pick is Disarm, who currently has 40 Kentucky Derby points. If he finishes first, second or third in the Lexington, he probably will have enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
Trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, Disarm is coming off a second in the Louisiana Derby. If the Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt does win the Lexington, I think he will be a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby.
Disarm recorded a 90 Beyer for his runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby.
First Mission, a Cox-trained Kentucky-bred Street Sense colt, goes into the Lexington off a 6 3/4-length Fair Grounds maiden special weight score at 1 1/16 miles on March 18.
In First Mission’s maiden win, he recorded an 89 Beyer. That followed a 96 when he finished second in his Feb. 18 career debut to the highly regarded Bishops Bay, also trained by Cox.
Arabian Lion, trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, kicked off his racing career with a three-length maiden special weight victory (92 Beyer) in a six-furlong race at Santa Anita last Oct. 9. However, the Kentucky-bred Justify colt has lost three in a row since earning his maiden diploma.
A sharp six-furlong workout in 1:11.20 at Santa Anita last Sunday (April 9) could be a sign that Arabian Lion might prove a tough customer in the Lexington, though drawing post 11 doesn’t help.
Empirestrikesfast should not be taken lightly. He was credited with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure when he won a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight race at Gulfstream Park on March 11 in his lone start to date. Hall of Famer Bill Mott trains the Kentucky-bred Empire Maker colt.
My selections for the Lexington Stakes are below:
1. Disarm
2. First Mission
3. Arabian Lion
4. Empirestrikesfast
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM
I developed my Derby Strikes System (DSS) in 1999. Its purpose is to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.
Various “rules” for the Kentucky Derby were quite popular for many years. A “Derby rule” meant that a horse needed to have done this or that, or not done this or that, in order to win the Kentucky Derby. But when many of the “Derby rules” were broken through the years, their popularity waned.
I think it’s the marriage of both the TACTICAL with the HISTORICAL that makes the Derby Strikes System better than any single “Derby rule.”
A number of the categories in the Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Thus, when the 2020 running was changed from May 2 to Sept. 5 because of COVID, the Derby Strikes System was unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby returned to its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021 and 2022, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.
It’s when a 3-year-old makes his or her final start before the Kentucky Derby that I can determine their number of strikes in the DSS.
The DSS consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.
The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.
History shows that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more. According to the DSS, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 83% of the Kentucky Derby winners (40 out of 49) have had zero strikes or one strike going back to 1973.
The eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes were Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).
Only one horse, Mine That Bird in 2009, has had more than two strikes. He had four.
The strikes for a number of horses scheduled to make their next start in the Kentucky Derby are listed below:
ZERO STRIKES
Angel of Empire
Derma Sotogake
Hit Show
Major Dude
Practical Move
Tapit Trice
ONE STRIKE
Confidence Game (Category 5)
Disarm (Category 2)
Forte (Category 3)
Kingsbarns (Category 7)
Lord Miles (Category 3)
Raise Cain (Category 5)
Reincarnate (Category 4)
Rocket Can (Category 5)
Two Phil’s (Category 4)
Wild On Ice (Category 8)
TWO STRIKES
Blazing Sevens (Categories 3 and 6)
Cyclone Mischief (Categories 2 and 4)
Jace’s Road (Categories 2 and 4)
Mandarin Hero (Categories 1 and 2)
Skinner (Categories 2 and 3)
Sun Thunder (Categories 2 and 3)
Verifying (Categories 2 and 4)
THREE STRIKES
Continuar (Categories 2, 3 and 4)
King Russell (Categories 1, 2 and 3)
Mage (Categories 2, 4 and 7)
WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973
Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. That’s because two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
Maximum Security finished first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But the stewards disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th for committing a foul when he veered out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy. Country House was declared the winner of the 2019 Kentucky Derby.
Medina Spirit finished first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But Medina Spirit was disqualified due to testing positive for traces of betamethasone, a medication that is legal to use but not on race day.
The strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:
2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)
*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money
**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES
What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:
1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005 and Rich Strike in 2022 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners through 2022 have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010 and Mandaloun in 2021, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)
7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 1 for 67 in the Kentucky Derby through 2022. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)
8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 331 Elite Power (25)
2. 250 Stilleto Boy (3)
3. 238 Art Collector (6)
4. 195 West Will Power
5. 160 Secret Oath (1)
6. 123 Last Samurai (1)
7. 111 Goodnight Olive
7. 111 Cody’s Wish (1)
9. 103 Country Grammer (1)
10. 58 Nest
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 372 Forte (32)
2. 308 Tapit Trice (4)
3. 282 Practical Move (1)
3. 263 Angel of Empire
5. 199 Kingsbarns (1)
6. 118 Derma Sotogake
7. 101 Two Phil’s
8. 79 Verifying
8. 70 Mandarin Hero
10. 68 Confidence Game
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