Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
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Churchill Downs Race 1: Post: 11:00 ET Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 8-Sansone; 11-Coffee Talk; 12-Chillax
Backups: 2-Cromwell; 4-Sturdy.
Forecast: The Derby Day opener is a messy maiden main track affair in which nothing would surprise, especially if the track comes up wet. Use as many as you can afford to. Sansone was well-backed in his debut at Saratoga last summer and was virtually eased but returned to display some promise when a willing and solid runner-up in a representative extended sprint at Gulfstream Park (didn’t get the clearest or runs) and seems quite likely to produce a forward move on the stretch out for Shug. Based strictly on the number he earned in that race the son of Uncle Mo is a solid fit against this group and his morning line of 6-1 makes him intriguing. Coffee Talk shows an improving pattern – he was a strong runner-up at Keeneland at 21-1 two turning last month – and not much more will be needed today. Chillax is stuck outside but has the best number in the field (86 Beyer last time out when taking a lot of dirt in traffic) so if he can get over and negotiate a decent trip the son of Bernardini should be a major player throughout.
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Churchill Downs Race 2: Post: 11:32 ET Grade: B
Main Ticket: 10 Generous Lover; 7-Normandy Queen
Backups: 4-Home Game; 5-Tapit Quick.
Forecast: Generous Lover has been away since October but if she repeats her best form from last year the daughter of Bolt d’Oro can handle this assignment. She’s a versatile type that can handle any distance or surface and this one turn mile should be right up her alley. A recent bullet work for her high percentage connections should have her right on edge. Normandy Queen earned a career top number when second at this level at Oaklawn Park last month around two turns. She’s another that should enjoy this shorter distance and projects to find herself on or near the lead throughout. We’ll make her a “must use” at 9/2 on the morning line with the switch to F. Prat.
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Churchill Downs Race 3: Post: 12:05 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5-Goal Oriented; 11-Sorcerer’s Silver.
Backups: 3-Valentinian; 6-Rapture.
Forecast: Despite racing greenly during the early stages, Goal Oriented rallied from last to first – almost an impossible task sprinting at Santa Anita – to win his debut like a good thing for B. Baffert and in the process gave every indication that he’ll be even better with experience and distance. This is a stakes quality first level allowance field that may even produce a starter or two in the Preakness. We’re thinking that this colt could be of that ilk. Sorcerer’s Silver was equally impressive in his maiden tally sprinting at Gulfstream Park but had the misfortune of drawing the extreme outside post. He’s a lovely mover and a terrific athlete with a pedigree to stay the trip but he’ll have to be pretty special to win under these circumstances. At the price, you have to include him somewhere.
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Churchill Downs Race 4: Post: 12:38 ET Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 9-Liberal Arts; 6-Kapuna; 3-Accretive.
Backups: 5-Keen Cat; 10-Implementation; New King.
Forecast: This is an inscrutable overnight stakes for older horses; we’ll have six on our ticket and even that might not be enough. Liberal Arts is a two-time winner over the Churchill Downs main track and that alone makes him a major contender. His recent two races were below his best but perhaps a return to the Louisville track will snap him back. Kapuna has races that are good enough to win but you’ll have to get past the fact that he’s blanked in eight starts under Twin Spires. Accretive hails from a high percentage outfit and arrives fresh from a highly rated off track win in Louisiana. He's 6-1 on the morning line and has a decent look at that price.
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Churchill Downs Race 5: Post: 1:12 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 6-Sacred Wish; 10-Special Wan (Ire).
Backups: 2-Movin; On Up.
Forecast: Sacred Wish returns to Grade 2 company in this year’s renewal of the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile and appears to have found a winning spot. She employs an effective second flight stalking strategy that usually keeps her free and clear of trouble and based on her recent strong and consistent figures seems certain to be in the fray throughout. Special Wan (Ire) has won two of three since being imported from Europe and may be the one to beat. Her recent win in the Honey Fox S.-G3 was visually quite pleasing and it would be surprising If she weren’t highly competitive right back.
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Churchill Downs Race 6: Post: 1:53 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-Built.
Backups: 6-Gaming.
Forecast: If Built is going to be a legitimate player in this year’s sophomore class we suspect it’ll be under the conditions of the Pat Day Mile-G2. Yes, he did win around two turns earlier this year when benefitting from a phony slow pace that gave his connections the false hope that he would develop into Derby material, but the evidence since then suggests the son of Hard Spun has distance limitations and almost certainly will prove to be most effective around one turn up to a mile. Freshened and showing a considerable amount of spark in the morning in recent weeks, the W. Catalano-trained colt switches to U. Rispoli and should get the patient ride he apparently prefers. Assuming we’re correct about his preferred style and trip, this is a race he can win. Gaming is another that should show his best stuff under these conditions. The winner of the Del Mar Futurity-G1 over seven furlongs last summer, the B. Baffert-trained colt has been flattening out going long in subsequent races but should have no excuses at this extended one turn distance.
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Churchill Downs Race 7: Post: 2:38 ET Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2-Nobals; 8-Rogue Lightning (Ire); 7-Think Big.
Backups: 5-Arrest Me Red.
Forecast: This group tends to take turns, so anything goes. Nobals is partial to the Churchill Downs turf course so on that angle alone we’ll put him slightly on top in this year’s edition of the Twin Spires Turf Sprint-G2 at 6-1 on the morning line. He’s one of several in the field capable of winning. Rogue Lightning (IRE) ran a terrific race in his U.S. debut at Keeneland when collared late in the Shakertown S.-G2 and a repeat of that performance could easily be good enough. edged ‘Lighting in that race at Keeneland with a courageous late surge that produced a career top number, and with just eight career outings the son of Twirling Candy most likely has yet to reach his peak.
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Churchill Downs Race 8: Post: 3:23 ET Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 10-Nysos; 2-Banishing; 7-Mindframe.
Backups: 11-Mullikin.
Forecast: Up until the time he was injured in early February of last year, Nysos was America’s best 3-year-old with a resume that rivaled trainer Bob Baffert’s most recent Triple Crown winner, Justify. However, after three runaway victories by a combined nearly 27 lengths that included a pair of graded stakes scores, the son of Nyquist was stopped on, returned to training briefly in October, stopped on again, and now finally makes it back to action in a killer of a race, the $1 million Churchill Downs Stakes-G1 over a salty seven furlongs. He’s trained as well as ever in recent works to indicate he’s retained all of his speed, but this assignment couldn’t have come up much tougher. Listed at 4-1 on the morning line, he’s a modest gamble at that price, but we wouldn’t take anything less. Banishing turns back to a sprint – he’s tough at any distance – and has been thoroughly consistent based on his speed figures (all very fast) for trainer D. Jacobson, who took over training last summer of the Ghostzapper gelding, who has never been worse than second in eight starts since the barn change. Mindframe, himself a high class member of the 2024 sophomore class, returned in winning form in his first outing since July with a facile score in the Gulfstream Park Mile-G2 in early March and has trained steadily and sharply since. In his only previous race at this distance (his debut) a year ago March, the son of Constitution won by almost 14 lengths. However, he’s never produced a number quite as fast as what it may take to beat Nysos or Banishing.
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Churchill Downs Race 9: Post: 4:06 ET Grade: A
Main Ticket: 10-Iron Man Cal
Backups: 7-Zulu Kingdom.
Forecast: Iron Man Cal developed into an outstanding 2-year-old turf performer and when last seen missed by a neck while perhaps best in the 2024 BC Juvenile Turf S.-G1. We’re expecting even better things this time around based on the way he’s been breezing (brilliantly) for trainer P. D’Amato leading up to 3-year-old debut. The son of Collected has excellent tactical speed but can really finish, too, and if he performs up to expectations in this year’s edition of the American Turf S.-G1 he’ll offer extreme value at or near his morning line of 9/2. Simply put, we regard him as one of the best gambles on the card.
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Churchill Downs Race 10: Post: 1:50 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-Kopion
Backups: 8-Ways and Means.
Forecast: Kopion was absolutely stunning in a pair of fast, highly rated graded stakes wins this winter at Santa Anita, first winning the La Brea S.-G1 at the absurd price of 37-1 and then proving that performance was no fluke but coming back to dispose of older rivals (this time at 6/5) in the Santa Monica S.-G1 in early February with a BC-level speed figure of 110. Both of those races were over seven furlongs, the same as today’s Derby City Distaff-G1. In the interim the daughter of Omaha Beach has looked every bit as sharp now as she’s always been through a series of breezes that have kept her right on edge. Listed at 8-1 on the morning line, the R. Mandella-trained filly is a major gamble at that number and remains so even at a few ticks lower on the tote, which seems likely.
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Churchill Downs Race 11: Post: 2:39 ET Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7-Running Bee; 10-Spirit of St Louis.
Backups: 3-Highway Robbery; 1-Integration.
Forecast: Runaway Bee rates the call in this typically competitive edition of the Turf Classic-G1 over nine furlongs. Winner of four of his last six outings, most recently the Tampa Bay S.-G3 in early February, the veteran son of English Channel retains F. Prat and has shown the versatility to win gate to wire or from 10 lengths off the pace, whatever the situation calls for. He’s never been tested over the local lawn but there’s no reason he won’t be inconvenienced, even if there’s a bit of moisture in it. Spirit of St Louis was a beaten favorite when fourth at Fair Grounds last time but overall he’s won 10 of 15 career starts and could easily bounce back. He’s reunited with “win rider” M. Franco and probably is the one to fear most.
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Churchill Downs Race 12: Post: 6:57 ET Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 8-Journalism
Backups: 18-Sovereignty; 3-Final Gambit.
Forecast: There are nothing but positive factors in the past performance chart of Journalism, which is why he’s listed as the 3-1 morning line favorite in this year’s Kentucky Derby. He may even go a tick or two lower. Fast and dominate on figures and with the pedigree and running style to adore the classic American distance of a mile and one-quarter, the Michael McCarthy-trained sophomore continues to impress in his morning trials leading up to the race, and he couldn’t have drawn better than his eight post position (now seven) in the 20-runner lineup. Sure, if he doesn’t show up with his “A” game, the son of Curlin could get beat, but there is no evidence to expect that. We’ve loved him since his broke his maiden in his second career start at Del Mar in November and everything he’s done since has solidified our opinion that he’s head and shoulders the top colt in his class.
From a gambling standpoint, exacta/trifecta players should consider three horses underneath. Sovereignty will love 10 furlongs, and we already know he loves this main track, having won the Street Sense S.-G3 here last fall by five widening lengths. The Gulfstream Park track profile didn’t fit his deep closing running style when he was second in Florida Derby-G1, but if the pace is faster than par today – and it might be even without the late scratching Rodriguez – the W. Mott-trained son of Into Mischief could make his presence felt late. Final Gambit is for big price players – he's 30-1 on the morning line – but while he’s unproven over conventional dirt and he’s entirely pace dependent the son of Not This Time has a chance to at least hit the board if he can transfer his all-weather form to this main track.
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Churchill Downs Race 13: Post: 8:00 ET Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 14-Big Truzz; 11-Patch Adams.
Backups: 9-Romanesque.
Forecast: We’re not sure Big Truzz was anywhere near cranked up in his debut last month at Keeneland but that didn’t stop the son of Justify from demolishing his maiden rivals with a powerful late kick and strong Beyer (86) speed figure. He returns in three weeks on the one level raise at this same six and one-half furlong distance, and from his outside draw the B. Lynch-trained sophomore can settle early and then blast home from the quarter pole to the wire. If he’s as good as we think he is, he can win right back. Patch Adams shortens to a sprint after two failed runs over a distance of ground. If you expect him to return to his runaway sprint maiden win three races back that produced a stakes quality 98 Beyer speed figure, the son of Into Mischief should leave as the logical favorite, especially with the addition of Lasix and the switch back to F. Prat. This looks like a legitimate graded stakes race masquerading as a first level allowance dash, and it will take a very good colt to win it.
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Churchill Downs Race 14: Post: 8:33 ET Grade: A
Main Ticket: 12-Pursuitneversleeps
Backups: 14-Mainstream; 4-Advanced Spirit.
Forecast: Pursuitneversleeps deserved better when finishing a smart second in a fast, highly rated six furlong maiden affair at Gulfstream Park in mid-March in a race already franked by the winner of that race, Here Comes Francis, who returned to pulverize a first level allowance field at Tampa Bay Downs in his next outing. This son of Ghostzapper wound up more than 10 lengths clear of the rest, galloped out past ‘Francis into the clubhouse turn, and earned a 93 Beyer figure, good enough to win many stakes races around these parts, let alone a maiden event. His morning line in today’s race of 3-1 belongs in fantasy land, but, hey, if we can get It, we’ll take it.
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