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With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror and the stakes getting higher in Triple Crown preps starting this Saturday with the Risen Star (G2), it felt like the right time to start my newest blog. The purpose of this piece of content each week will be to look back at some of the recent Derby qualifiers with an eye towards making money moving forward. We have a little catching up to do, so let’s dive right into the first edition of “Prep School”.
Most Impressive Prep Effort to Date: Renegade
The Sam F. Davis has not been the most productive prep when it comes to Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown success, but as Justify illustrated in 2018 trends are made to be broken. Only six horses this decade have competed in the “Run for the Roses” out of the race conducted each February at Tampa Bay Downs with Owen Almighty being 2025’s representative in Louisville in May, so it is fair to be dubious about the quality of the event, as well as wondering about the spacing being ideal to peak at the right time, but perhaps 2026 is different. Not only has there yet to be many “wow” performances from the crop, but Renegade brought proven form into Oldsmar despite not officially having a win before the race. Trainer Todd Pletcher is likely to get the regally bred son of Into Mischief colt to peak in the Arkansas Derby, but the question is can he save his biggest effort for May.
Top Contender (as of now) I am willing to fade on first Saturday in May: Nearly
It is early to make over-the-top, bold statements about a young horse’s chances of running well in three months, but at this point I am willing to let Nearly beat me at what his likely off odds would be in Louisville for the Kentucky Derby. The son of Not This Time has done little wrong since arriving in Florida in November after a forgivable debut in New York to kick off his career. On paper, he is tough to knock, but historically these horses that lack solid efforts outside the Sunshine State have been hard to trust. Plus, as dominant as his effort was in the Holy Bull (G3) it came with him taking advantage of racing in the clear on a day where the outside was the certain place to be over the main track at Gulfstream Park. Nearly has been very good thus far, but currently is not a horse I am interested in wagering on in any futures pool -- and we have a Kentucky Derby Future Wager this Friday through Sunday.
Horse I am Keeping an Eye On: Solider N Diplomat
Trainer Steve Asmussen has won more races than anyone in North American racing history, but still is in search of his first Kentucky Derby score. I am not sure he gets it in 2026, but he definitely has a nice-looking colt in Soldier N Diplomat. The St Elias Stable runner is not bred to get the classic distance, so that could be his undoing, but he continues to get better. The son of Army Mule had every reason to give it up earlier last Friday in the Southwest (G3) when, despite a good break, he was forced four-wide into the first turn and remained three-wide the rest of the way, yet was still able to out-finish the other speed types involved early along the inside paths. At some point, Soldier N Diplomat’s lack of stamina is likely to be his demise, but he certainly is one to keep an eye on for the Pat Day Mile (G2) if 10 furlongs turns out to be too far.
Runner with Most to Prove This Coming Weekend: Golden Tempo
The Risen Star (G2) headlines North American thoroughbred racing this coming weekend and marks the return of Palladin. The son of Gun Runner was beaten to the wire by Renegade on debut, but placed first via DQ and then beat the Sam F. Davis winner on the square in the Remsen (G2) before getting some time off from trainer Chad Brown. He will be the public choice, but Lecomte (G3) winner Golden Tempo has more to prove. The late-running Cherie DeVaux trainee enters his third career start a perfect 2 for 2 with both wins coming over the Fair Grounds main track. That said, he has lacked early speed in both starts to date and took advantage of a favorable flow to outfinish stablemate Mesquite last month. The competition gets tougher here for the son of Curlin that clearly has talent, but needs to take a step forward in terms of figures on Saturday to be considered a serious contender in the biggest races this spring.
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