Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
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Churchill Downs Race 1: Post: 11:00 ET Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 3-Shred the Gnar.
Backups: 1-Anomima.
Forecast: Shred the Gnar was supposed to dominate her maiden competition at Gulfstream Park in her second career start in mid-March – she left at 2/5 - and she did just that, establishing the pace and then drawing away with authority to register a six length-plus win over a mile while earning a stronger than par speed figure for the level. The daughter of Into Mischief, with the preferred two one-turn races under her belt, stretches out for the first time to a mile and one-sixteenth and projects to be the controlling speed. She’s clearly a potential stakes type but is wisely being allowed to go through her conditions by trainer B. Lynch. She’ll offer good wagering value at or near her morning line of 5/2 if you can get it.
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Churchill Downs Race 2: Post: 11:58 ET Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5-Endorse; 4-Defiant Lass; 3-Saucier.
Backups: 7-Contorted; 9-Salted.
Forecast: Lots of question marks in this borderline inscrutable maiden main track route affair for fillies and mares, so we suggest you spread deeply. The known element doesn’t really inspire, so let’s try a gamble on the newcomer Endorse, listed at 8-1 on the morning line for T. Pletcher and F. Pratt. The daughter of Curlin displayed plenty of talent last summer when breezing as a 2-year-old at Saratoga but never made it to the races and debuts going long (not surprising based on pedigree) with a series of drills at Palm Beach Downs that look promising. Recently, she breezed a half mile stride for stride with Florida Derby fifth place finisher Disruptor and may have been slightly best. Defiant Lass shows the classic two sprints and a stretch-out pattern for D. Romans (who has strong stats with the second-off-a-layoff angle as well) and finished in the frame in both of her prior outings while showing a significant rise in speed figures in her Keeneland dash last month. The daughter of Dialed In projects to be forwardly placed and have every chance. Saucier seems likely to improve for B. Cox (excellent with second timers) after earning a solid fig when sprinting in March at Fair Grounds. She’ll add blinkers today and shows a pedigree that okay’s this stretch out in trip.
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Churchill Downs Race 3: Post: 11:58 ET Grade: B-
Main Ticket:12-Moon Channel; 6-World Beater; Some Performance.
Backups: 9-Marina Gamble; 11-Vivaldi.
Forecast: Here’s a wide open grass grab bag for older maidens that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Use as many as your budget allows. Moon Channel is intriguing as a second time starter with arguably more upside than most of the others. Somewhat green in his debut at Keeneland last month and falling far back during the early stages, the son of English Channel suddenly woke up midway on the turn and closed resolutely to finish second before galloping out strongly past the wire. The speed figure wasn’t great, but this colt should produce a significant forward move today – his outside draw notwithstanding - for a barn that hits with a strong 20% with second time starters. At 6-1 on the morning line with F. Geroux riding him back, he could be a good value play in the rolling exotics. World Beater is strong on numbers and shows rising figs in each of his four races, most recently when second in a similar affair at Keeneland three weeks ago. He’s a one-paced grinder type but probably is a bit more dangerous than his 6-1 morning line indicates. Some Performance is fresh off the plane from Ireland, where he finished a distant third as the favorite facing maidens at Leopardstown. His overseas form doesn’t really inspire but he should be competitive against this group, especially as a first time Lasix user.
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Churchill Downs Race 4: Post: 12:29 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: Stable Currency
Backups: 7-Beauty Reigns.
Forecast: Stable Currency looks pretty solid in this extended sprint for first level allowance fillies and mares. She’s really gotten good of late, winning her last pair with strong numbers at Fair Grounds, and if she can transfer that form over this track the daughter of Audible can extend her streak. She employs an effective pace pressing style so today’s extra half furlong should be no issue, so at 7/2 on the morning line, the C. Block-trained sophomore offers value in the win pool and in the rolling exotics.
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Churchill Downs Race 5: Post: 1:03 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5-Nitrogen; 8-Will Ten.
Backups: 7-Lush Lips.
Forecast: Nitrogen seeks her fourth straight stakes win in this year’s renewal of the Edgewood S.-G2 and is the logical top pick to continue her dominance in the sophomore filly turf division. She has produced a rising speed figure in every one of her six career outings and could very well produce another top today. She has excellent tactical speed and can really turn it on from the quarter pole home. California invader Will Ten doesn’t quite have the resume as our top pick but is quite good in her own right, and it’ll be interesting to see if she can improve enough to make a serious run for it. The daughter of War of Will projects to inherit a soft second flight, stalking trip and then have every chance to prove she belongs at this level. As of now she’s a bit shy in the speed figure department but we doubt we’ve see her best, so at 9/2 on the morning line she is worth including on your main ticket.
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Churchill Downs Race 6: Post: 1:42 ET Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 4-Fierceness: 2-Locked.
Backups: none.
Forecast: 4-Fierceness makes his seasonable debut, and after viewing several of his recent workouts on video at Palm Beach Downs we can say with confidence that he’s at least as good if not better now than he was last fall when he finished a superb second in the BC Classic-G1. Today’s pace scenario looks moderate, so the City of Light colt can settle early just about anywhere he wants to be. It shouldn’t be discounted that he’ll be receiving 5 lbs. from his major rival, Locked, who is fresh from a runaway win the Santa Anita H.-G1 and could easily be this good in his present form. We’re confident the winner will be one of these two; small ticket players who don’t want to double their ticket might be tempted to opt for Fierceness.
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Churchill Downs Race 7: Post: 2:23 ET Grade: X
Main Ticket: 2-Thorpedo Anna
Backups: none.
Forecast: There’s not much we can with this year’s edition of the La Troienne S-G1 other than to accept the free bingo space with Thorpedo Anna as a no value rolling exotic single at 2/5 on the morning line. She’s won seven of her last eight, her only defeat coming in a photo to Fierceness in the Travers S.-G1 last summer at Saratoga. He recent numbers have been decent, not brilliant, but she usually only does what is required. In this race, she can only beat herself.
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Churchill Downs Race 8: Post: 3:12 ET Grade: X
Main Ticket: 7-She Feels Pretty.
Backups: 8-Saffron Moon,
Forecast: She Feels Pretty makes here 2025 debut after being given some time off following back-to-back stunning victories in the QEII Cup-G1 at Keeneland in October and the American Oaks-G1 at Santa Anita in December. At that time she was head-and-shoulders the best sophomore filly turf performer in the land and today will tackle older race mares for the first time. It shouldn’t matter. Her work tab is solid, she’s fired fresh in the past, and she dominates this group on numbers. At 6/5 on the morning line, she’s a rolling exotic single, though you may opt to have a backup ticket or two using the tough-as-nails Saffron Moon just in case.
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Churchill Downs Race 9: Post: 4:07 ET Grade: B
Main Ticket: 10-Impulse Buy; 12-Eclatant; 5-Verity.
Backups: none.
Forecast: The contention is quite deep in this year’s edition of the Eight Belles S.-G2, so we’ll toss in a few and hope to get a middle price home. Impulse Buy has strong and consistent numbers with further improvement likely, so we’ll give her a very slight edge on top at 7/2 on the morning line. The switch to F. Prat certainly won’t hurt and this extended sprint distance of seven furlongs fits her stalking style perfectly. She was very good as a two-year-old and should be even better off the layoff. Eclatant is assured clear sailing from her far outside draw and is likely to inherit a comfortable pace-stalking journey. She broke her maiden at first asking over this main track and won the Forward Gal Stakes in February at this distance in her most recent appearance. Verity splashed her way to an easy win in the Beaumont S.l-G2 at Keeneland over seven eighths but has won on dry land as well, so the surface shouldn’t matter. The daughter of Nyquist is a strong fit on numbers and is a logical main contender.
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Churchill Downs Race 10: Post: 4:51 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 9-Queen Maxima; 4-Ag Bullet
Backups: none.
Forecast: We’ll only use the two listed above in our rolling exotics and feel quite confident that no additional coverage is needed. California invader Queen Maxima is drawn a little farther out than we’d prefer but in her present form it may not matter. She’s won four straight, each with a rising speed figures, and this J. Mullins-trained daughter of Bucchero has really found her niche as an abbreviated grass sprinter. She’s a versatile type than can win on the lead or from a stalking/pressing position so from the nine hole regular pilot J. Hernandez can play the break and pick his spot. Ag Bullet has a pair of recent triple digit Beyer speed figures on her resume, so on pure numbers she’s the one to beat. Freshened since December, the R. Baltas-trained mare was third, beaten a neck, in last year’s BC Turf Sprint-G1 and anything close to that race today very likely will be good enough.
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Churchill Downs Race 11: Post: 5:51 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: Good Cheer; Tenma
Backups: none/
Main Ticket: Good Cheer is perfect in six starts and everything about her running style and pedigree suggests she should be even better as the distances increase. Being perfect in three starts over the Churchill Downs main track doesn’t hurt her case, either. If there is one concern, it’s that her speed figures aren’t through the roof, so we wonder if she’ll be worth the short price, but having said that it’s almost impossible to pick against her. Tenma is better than her 12-1 morning line suggests, and we’ll be quite surprised if she doesn’t at least hit the board. She has earned Beyer speed figures in the 80’s and 90’s and that makes her a fit, while her most recent Beyer (75) shorted her by at least five points, in our estimation. Her recent workouts indicate she’s ready for a career top.
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Churchill Downs Race 12: Post: 6:27 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7-Resilience ; 10-Not This Boy
Backups: none.
Forecast: We don’t really have a strong feeling about this second level allowance main track miler, so we’ll try to survive and advance using just two. Last year’s Wood Memorial S.-G2 winner Resilience returns for W. Mott and the works indicate he should be fit enough for a winning performance off the bench. He finished a solid second over this track and distance as a 2-year-old, so this shortened trip should be fine for him. Not This Boy, away since last August, displayed some promise at Ellis Park and was quite fast on numbers, so if he’s as good now and he was then he’ll be right there.
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Churchill Downs Race 13: Post: 7:02 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 10-Chaching Chaching
Backups: 2-Oraia; 3-Ivory and Ebony.
Forecast: The nightcap is for older maiden fillies and mares over seven furlongs that offers a reasonable play at 7/2 on the morning line. A late developing four year old daughter of Munnings, Chaching Chaching finished second in both of her starts to date and produced a significant forward move when raising her Beyer speed figure 15 points to a strong 86 in her most recent outing That number is considerably better than par for this level, so if she doesn’t go backward the E. Kenneally-trained filly should be ready to graduate. We’ll save with a couple of backups but the main push in the various exotics and in the win pool will go to our to pick.
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