Forte was the early victim of a rather cruel April Fool’s prank when post positions were drawn for the dozen 3-year-olds entered in the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on April 1. Not surprisingly, Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher was not pleased when bad luck determined that the champion colt would, barring scratches, commence his journey in the $1 million event from post 11.
“It’s a tremendous disadvantage statistically breaking from post 11 at Gulfstream Park [in a 1 1/8-mile race],” Pletcher was quoted as saying in a Daily Racing Form post-draw article written by Mike Welsch. “And it’s a shame post position can play such a significant factor in important races such as the Florida Derby.”
Welsch wrote that horses breaking from post 11 in races run at 1 1/8 miles on Gulfstream Park’s main track “have won only 2 of 49 starts, due in large part to the short run to the first turn since the track was reconfigured in 2006…Post positions 9-12 are a combined 9 for 284 here going a mile and one-eighth on the dirt since 2006.”
Actually, it was in the summer of 2004 when Gulfstream’s main track was reconfigured to a 1 1/8-mile oval, which was first used for racing conducted in 2005. But you get the point. As Pletcher said, from a statistical standpoint, post 11 is awful.
Does Forte’s dreaded post position mean that I’m going to pick against him? Nope. Not this time.
I thought I was being clever when I picked against Forte in Gulfstream’s Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 4. I took a shot by putting Cyclone Mischief on top.
“You might think I’m crazy,” I wrote for Xpressbet.com in explaining why Cyclone Mischief was my choice to win the Fountain of Youth. “Maybe I am. But I’m thinking if there ever was a time to try and beat Forte and Blazing Sevens, it’s when they are both returning from a layoff.”
Well, even though Forte was coming off the bench, he not only won the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth, he did so with authority by 4 1/2 lengths as a 1-2 favorite. To be perfectly candid, I felt like an idiot picking against him. Cyclone Mischief finished third at 15-1, almost six lengths behind Forte.
And so post 11 won’t keep from me from making Forte my top pick in the Florida Derby. I don’t want to feel like an idiot again after the Florida Derby. Besides, Forte has proven that he’s an elite racehorse. An outer post in the Florida Derby did not stop a couple of other elite racehorses, Big Brown and Barbaro, from winning the Florida Derby.
Breaking from post 12, Big Brown won by five lengths in 2008 as a 3-2 favorite while making only his third career start and his stakes debut.
Beginning from post 10, Barbaro prevailed by a half-length in 2006 as an 8-5 favorite.
As terrific as Forte looked in the Fountain of Youth, I find it hard to picture the Kentucky-bred Violence colt getting beat in the Florida Derby, even from post 11. But one must also remember that upsets do happen. For instance, just two weeks before the 1973 Kentucky Derby, even the great Secretariat got beat. Secretariat finished third to stablemate Angle Light and Sham in Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial. And speaking of upsets, one only has to go back to last year’s Kentucky Derby for a whopper. Rich Strike shocked the racing world by winning at 80-1 in what was the second-biggest upset in the history of America’s longest continuously run sporting event.
If Forte is upset in the Florida Derby, I won’t be surprised if Mage wins it. Mage, who is 10-1 on the morning line, certainly fared much better than Forte in the draw for post positions. Mage is to start from post 4.
Mage finished fourth, nearly seven lengths behind Forte, in the Fountain of Youth. But I think Mage is capable of improving on that effort insofar as it was only his third career start and his first race around two turns.
The only Florida Derby entrants besides Forte lower than 10-1 on the morning line are Fort Bragg at 5-1, Dubyuhnell at 6-1 and Cyclone Mischief at 8-1.
But Cyclone Post drew post 9, Fort Bragg post 10 and Dubyuhnell post 12. With those post positions, I have no interest in going with one of them against Forte.
SoCal shipper Fort Bragg was scratched from the Grade III Sunland Derby last Sunday to run instead in the Florida Derby.
Keep in mind that if Fort Bragg does win the Florida Derby, or even runs well, it will flatter Practical Move. Fort Bragg finished fifth, 5 1/2 lengths behind the victorious Practical Move, in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes on March 4.
My selections for the Florida Derby are below:
1. Forte
2. Mage
3. Fort Bragg
4. Cyclone Mischief
ARKANSAS DERBY SELECTIONS
Oaklawn Park’s Grade I, $1.25 million Arkansas Derby has enticed a field of 11 to do battle at 1 1/8 miles this Saturday (April 1).
Reincarnate, who ranks No. 7 on my current Kentucky Derby Top 10, is the 5-2 morning-line favorite.
My top pick is Angel of Empire (pictured above), who is No. 6 on my Top 10. I find his 9-2 morning-line price a lot more appealing than Reincarnate’s 5-2.
Angel of Empire, trained by Brad Cox, first got on my radar when he finished second at 18-1 in Oaklawn’s one-mile Smarty Jones Stakes on New Year’s Day. Victory Formation, also conditioned by Cox, won in front-running fashion by three lengths as a 3-5 favorite. Cox mentioned after the race that he felt that Angel of Empire was going to relish going farther.
What happened when Angel of Empire did run farther in Fair Grounds’ Grade II Risen Star Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on Feb. 18? He rallied from ninth in the field of 14 to win by one length at 13-1. Now the Pennsylvania-bred colt once again is running 1 1/8 miles in the Arkansas Derby, a race his sire, Classic Empire, won in 2017.
Look, I get why so many people like Reincarnate in the Arkansas Derby. In his most recent start, he had a nightmarish trip and still managed to finish third in Oaklawn’s Grade II Rebel Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on a sloppy track Feb. 25. Prior to that, the Kentucky-bred Good Magic colt won Santa Anita’s Grade III Sham Stakes by a neck on dry land at odds of 16-1.
Reincarnate’s Rebel performance in defeat caught the attention of Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin, among many others.
“If you ask me what single moment stands out on the Derby trail this year from a visual standpoint, I would have to say it was the sight of Reincarnate powering down the stretch with that great extension and fluid strides to finish third in the Rebel after having just about everything go wrong for him in the race, which was his first on a sloppy track, first outside California and first in a new barn,” Haskin wrote this week. “You don’t have to win to show what you are, and although I was impressed with his courage and tenacity in winning the Sham Stakes after battling on the lead the whole way, I was even more impressed with him in the Rebel coming from ninth, a dozen lengths off the pace.”
Rocket Can certainly belongs on the list of Arkansas Derby contenders. He is 4-1 on the morning line. He won Gulfstream’s Grade III Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 4 in his 2023 debut, then ran second to Forte in the Fountain of Youth.
Stretch-runner Red Route One, the 3-1 second choice on the morning line, adds to the depth of Arkansas Derby contenders. He finished second to the talented Arabian Knight in a sloppy renewal of Oaklawn’s Grade III Southwest Stakes on Jan. 28 in his first start at 3, then also ran second to Confidence Game in the Rebel, a half-length in front of Reincarnate.
My selections for the Arkansas Derby are below:
1. Angel of Empire
2. Reincarnate
3. Rocket Can
4. Red Route One
THIS WEEK’S KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10
Practical Move again is No. 1 this week. The San Felipe winner sparkled again in solo workout at Santa Anita last Sunday (March 26). He was timed going five furlongs in a bullet :59.20 while never being urged by the exercise rider.
“He was just cruising,” trainer Tim Yakteen said of the workout to Daily Racing Form’s Steve Andersen. “You want to see energy and that’s what we’re seeing.”
You can watch Practical Move’s workout on XBTV: https://www.xbtv.com/video/practical-move/practical-move-worked-5-furlongs-in-59-20-at-santa-anita-park-on-march-26th-2023/
To further illustrate just how impressive Practical Move’s latest drill was, Yakteen reportedly timed the Kentucky-bred Practical Joke colt galloping out six furlongs in 1:12.00. That was faster than any of the six workouts at that distance Sunday.
Geaux Rocket Ride, second in the San Felipe, worked six furlongs Sunday at Santa Anita in 1:13.00 for Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella.
Skinner, third in the San Felipe, worked six furlongs Sunday at Santa Anita in 1:14.00 for trainer John Shirreffs.
The six-furlong bullet drill Sunday at Santa Anita was achieved by National Treasure, who stepped the distance in 1:12.20 for Yakteen. Forced to miss the San Felipe because of a foot bruise, National Treasure probably will make his next start in Keeneland’s Grade I Blue Grass Stakes on April 8, according to Yakteen.
The point is that Practical Move was clocked GALLOPING OUT six furlongs faster than Geaux Rocket Ride, Skinner and National Treasure were timed in their workouts at the same distance.
My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:
1. Practical Move
2. Forte
3. Kingsbarns
4. Tapit Trice
5. Geaux Rocket Ride
6. Skinner
7. Angel of Empire
8. Reincarnate
9. Hit Show
10. Derma Sotogake
Kingsbarns, who remained undefeated by winning last Saturday’s Grade II Louisiana Derby, and Derma Sotogake, emphatic winner of the Group II UAE Derby last Saturday, are newcomers on my Top 10.
How about this? Pletcher trains No. 2 Forte, No. 3 Kingsbarns and No. 4 Tapit Trice. Talk about holding a strong hand going into the Kentucky Derby.
Kingsbarns, now undefeated in three career starts, is named for a golf course in Scotland. While the $800,000 auction purchase does lack racing experience, it is to his credit that he’s won at three different tracks: Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs and Fair Grounds.
Justify likewise was three for three going into the Kentucky Derby. But all three of his races had come on the same track, Santa Anita. Justify not only won the Kentucky Derby, he went on to capture the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes to become the 13th Thoroughbred to sweep the coveted Triple Crown.
Kingsbarns showed a lot by being able to win at 1 3/16 miles last Saturday with just two races under his belt. And not only did he win the Louisiana Derby, he did so convincingly by 3 1/2 lengths, with a splendid gallop-out to boot.
Yes, Kingsbarns was able to control the race by being allowed to set a modest pace. But it’s not as if he needs the early lead in order to win. He came from off the pace in both of his first two races.
How about Kingsbarns’ Beyer Speed Figure pattern? He registered a 74 Beyer in his first start, then an 85, then a 95 in the Louisiana Derby.
Kingsbarns will be attempting to become just the fourth horse to win the Kentucky Derby having made three previous starts. The three to have accomplished this were the remarkable Regret in 1915, Big Brown in 2008 and Justify in 2018.
Additionally, Kingsbarns will go into the Kentucky Derby having not raced as a 2-year-old. Only two horses have ever won this race without starting at 2: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018.
Kingsbarns was my top pick in the Louisiana Derby. Pegged as the third choice on the morning line at 6-1, he was sent off as the 9-2 second choice in the betting.
I wrote this last week for Xpressbet.com: “I get the feeling that Kingsbarns might be a special talent, someone who possibly could win the Louisiana Derby and then go on to give a good account of himself in the Kentucky Derby. That’s why I put money on him at odds of 35-1 in Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) on Feb. 12. I will make $7,000 if Kingsbarns happens to win the Kentucky Derby.”
The same day that I bet Kingsbarns in the future book, I put $200 on Practical Move at 83-1, which means I will make almost $17,000 if he wins the Kentucky Derby.
By the way, speaking of Kentucky Derby future book wagering, on the same day that I bet Practical Move and Kingsbarns, Hoosier Philly closed as the 11-1 second favorite among the 39 individual horses in Pool 4 of the KDFW. The favorite among the individual horses was Forte at 8-1. Yes, Hoosier Philly wasn’t that much bigger of a price than Forte!
At that time on Feb. 12, Hoosier Philly was undefeated in three career starts. Prior to Pool 4, I wrote for Xpressbet.com that I might put a little money on Hoosier Philly, but only if she was a big price. She was listed at 50-1 on the Pool 4 KDFW morning line. After Pool 4 closed and Hoosier Philly was 11-1, I wrote: “No way would I consider putting any money on her at such a ridiculously low price.”
And what has happened since Feb. 12? Hoosier Philly lost the Grade II Rachel Alexandra Stakes by 8 1/2 lengths when finishing third as a 2-5 favorite on Feb. 18. Last Saturday, Hoosier Philly lost again, this time in the Grade II Fair Grounds Oaks by 15 1/4 lengths when finishing fourth as a 6-5 favorite.
Derma Sotogake debuts on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week after leading from start to finish in the UAE Derby, which he won by 5 1/2 lengths. The Japanese-bred colt is by Mind Your Biscuits.
Mind Your Biscuits won Santa Anita’s Grade I Malibu Stakes at seven furlongs (107 Beyer Speed Figure) and was a two-time winner of the Group I Dubai Golden Shaheen at about six furlongs. While Mind Your Biscuits was known for mainly being a sprinter/miler, he did win Churchill Downs’ Grade III Lukas Classic at 1 1/8 miles (108 Beyer).
Derma Sotogake’s final time in the UAE Derby, which is run at about 1 3/16 miles, was 1:55.81. That made it the second-fastest UAE Derby since the race was moved to Meydan in 2010. Mendelssohn ran the fastest UAE Derby at Meydan when he ran up the score and won by 18 1/2 lengths, but he then finished 20th in Justify’s Kentucky Derby.
Horses to have competed in the UAE Derby are a combined 0 for 18 in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish by those 18 in the Kentucky Derby was Master of Hounds’ fifth in 2011. Master of Hounds finished second in the UAE Derby. China Visit’s sixth in 2000 is the best finish in the Kentucky Derby by a winner of the UAE Derby.
It appears that Derma Sotogake is very talented. As such, I do think he deserves a measure of respect in the Kentucky Derby despite the UAE Derby’s dismal record in the Kentucky Derby.
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM
The purpose of my Derby Strikes System (DSS), which I developed in 1999, is to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.
Various “rules” for the Kentucky Derby once were quite popular. A “Derby rule” meant that a horse needed to have done this or that, or not done this or that, in order to win the Kentucky Derby. However, through the years, many of the “Derby rules” were broken, which caused their popularity to wane.
I believe that it’s the marriage of the TACTICAL with the HISTORICAL that makes the Derby Strikes System better than any single “Derby rule.”
A number of the categories in the Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Consequently, when the 2020 running was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 due to COVID, it rendered the Derby Strikes System unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby again was contested on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021 and 2022, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.
Now that Kingsbarns, Disarm, Jace’s Road, Two Phil’s (winner of last Saturday’s Grade III Jeff Ruby by 5 1/4 lengths in a 35-1 upset while recording a 101 Beyer Speed Figure) and Derma Sotogake are scheduled to make their next start in the May 6 Kentucky Derby, I can calculate their number of strikes in my Derby Strikes System (DSS).
It’s when a 3-year-old makes his or her final start before the Kentucky Derby that I can determine their number of strikes in the DSS.
Wild On Ice is another who is scheduled to make his next start in the Kentucky Derby, if his connections choose to go. It was announced Tuesday (March 28) that Wild On Ice has been made eligible to the 2023 Triple Crown races with a late $6,000 payment that was due Monday (March 27).
Joel Marr trains Wild On Ice. Marr was the trainer of New Mexican-bred win machine Peppers Pride, who never lost in 19 lifetime starts.
The connections of Dura Erede and Continuar, who finished second and third, respectively, in the UAE Derby, have said that the plan is for them to run next in the Kentucky Derby.
The DSS consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.
The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.
History shows that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more. According to the DSS, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 83% of the Kentucky Derby winners (40 out of 49) have had zero strikes or one strike going back to 1973.
The eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes were Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).
Only one horse, Mine That Bird in 2009, has had more than two strikes. He had four.
The strikes for Continuar, Derma Sotogake, Disarm, Dura Erede, Jace’s Road, Kingsbarns, Two Phil’s and Wild On Ice are listed below:
ZERO STRIKES
Derma Sotogake
Dura Erede
ONE STRIKE
Disarm (Category 2)
Kingsbarns (Category 7)
Two Phil’s (Category 4)
Wild On Ice (Category 8)
TWO STRIKES
Jace’s Road (Categories 2 and 4)
THREE STRIKES
Continuar (Categories 2, 3 and 4)
WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973
Many years after I developed my Derby Strikes System in 1999, racing enthusiast Ryan Stillman suggested that I should take a look at the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners prior to 1999. Again, because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I could not go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. That’s because, as mentioned earlier, two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
Maximum Security finished first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But the stewards disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th for committing a foul when he veered out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy. Country House was declared the winner of the 2019 Kentucky Derby.
Medina Spirit finished first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But Medina Spirit was disqualified due to testing positive for traces of betamethasone, a medication that is legal to use but not on race day.
The strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:
2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)
*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money
**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES
What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:
1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005 and Rich Strike in 2022 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners through 2022 have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010 and Mandaloun in 2021, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)
7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 1 for 67 in the Kentucky Derby through 2022. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)
8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGERING
Pool 6 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) is being offered this week, with $2 win and exacta wagering available.
Be advised, betting closes a day earlier than usual. Pool 6 will close on Saturday (April 1) at 6 p.m. ET, prior to the Grade I Florida Derby and Grade I Arkansas Derby.
Pool 6 wagering will begin at noon ET on Thursday (March 30).
The number of individual horses being offered for the 2023 Kentucky Derby has increased to the benefit of horseplayers. Pool 6 consists of 39 individual horses, plus an “all other 3-year-olds option.” In past years, it would have been 23 individual horses instead of 39.
Considering I have Pool 4 bets on Practical Move at 83-1, Kingsbarns at 35-1 and Geaux Rocket Ride at 25-1, the only horse I’m taking a look at possibly putting some money on is National Treasure, who is listed at 50-1 on the KDFW Pool 4 morning line.
National Treasure missed the March 4 San Felipe Stakes due to a foot bruise, but his recent workouts at Santa Anita have been excellent.
Forte is the KDFW Pool 4 morning-line favorite at 5-2. National Treasure was good enough to finish third when Forte won the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last Nov. 4. Considering the considerable difference in Pool 4 morning line odds of 5-2 for Forte and 50-1 for National Treasure, I think National Treasure is worth putting some money on, as long as he actually goes off in the neighborhood of 50-1.
National Treasure is likely to make his next start in Keeneland’s Grade I Blue Grass Stakes on April 8. If he wins or even finishes second in the Blue Grass, which certainly is not out of the question, I think something around 50-1 on him in the Kentucky Derby would be nice to have.
BloodHorse’s Byron King has National Treasure ranked No. 5 in his Kentucky Derby Dozen this week, below only Forte, Tapit Trice, Practical Move and Geaux Rocket Ride.
“Since being withdrawn from the San Felipe with a tender foot, this colt has fired one fast drill after another, with his latest, a six-furlong move in 1:12.20 on Sunday [March 26] being among his most visually impressive,” King wrote of National Treasure. “He outworked Recincarnate for five furlongs, then breezed an additional eighth on his own. His connections want him on tilt for his final [Kentucky] Derby prep in the Blue Grass. Out of action since finishing third in the Jan. 8 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park, and without any [Kentucky] Derby points, he may need a 1-2 finish to garner sufficient points to make the Derby.”
King’s point that National Treasure currently does not have any Kentucky Derby points is why if I do make a future wager on National Treasure this week, it will be a rather small one, which is okay if he’s around 50-1.
Below are the morning-line odds for Pool 6 of the 2023 KDFW:
No. Horse (Morning Line Odds)
1. Angel of Empire (30-1)
2. Arctic Arrogance (80-1)
3. Blazing Sevens (50-1)
4. Bourbon Bash (99-1)
5. Classic Car Wash (80-1)
6. Confidence Game (25-1)
7. Continuar (99-1)
8. Cyclone Mischief (80-1)
9. Derma Sogogake (40-1)
10. Disarm (40-1)
11. Dreamlike (80-1)
12. Dubyuhnell (80-1)
13. Fort Bragg (80-1)
14. Forte (5-2)
15. Geaux Rocket Ride (20-1)
16. Hayes Strike (80-1)
17. Hit Show (20-1)
18. I Don’t Get It (99-1)
19. Instant Coffee (20-1)
20. Jace’s Road (80-1)
21. Kingsbarns (20-1)
22. Mage (80-1)
23. Mandarin Hero (80-1)
24. Mendelssohns March (99-1)
25. National Treasure (50-1)
26. Practical Move (8-1)
27. Raise Cain (40-1)
28. Red Route One (25-1)
29. Reincarnate (20-1)
30. Rocket Can (30-1)
31. Shadow Dragon (99-1)
32. Skinner (30-1)
33. Slip Mahoney (80-1)
34. Sun Thunder (80-1)
35. Tapit Trice (8-1)
36. Two Eagles River (99-1)
37. Two Phil’s (40-1)
38. Verifying (30-1)
39. Wild On Ice (80-1)
40. All Other 3-Year-Olds (15-1)
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Art Collector and Country Grammer, who ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in last week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll, both lost last Saturday (March 25). Art Collector ran second in Fair Grounds’ New Orleans Classic. Country Grammer finished seventh in the Group I Dubai World Cup.
And so there is a new No. 1 this week. It’s Elite Power, last year’s Eclipse Award-winning male sprinter. He won the Group III Riyadh Dirt Sprint on Feb. 25 in his first start since his victory in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Sprint last Nov. 5.
The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll is below:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 297 Elite Power (19)
2. 247 Stilleto Boy (3)
3. 239 Art Collector (10)
4. 190 West Will Power (1)
5. 151 Secret Oath (1)
6. 129 Cody’s Wish
7. 127 Last Samurai (1)
8. 119 Country Grammer (1)
9. 66 Defunded
10. 59 Nest
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
Forte heads into the Florida Derby ranked as the No. 1 3-year-old in the land.
The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll is below:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 357 Forte (34)
2. 279 Practical Move (1)
3. 252 Tapit Trice
3. 222 Kingsbarns (1)
5. 132 Confidence Game
6. 103 Two Phil’s
7. 97 Rocket Can
8. 82 Angel of Empire
8. 82 Hit Show
10. 61 Derma Sotogake
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