Scott Shapiro: Oaks-Derby Weekend Exacta-Thon Plays

It is almost Derby time and as usual that means great promotions at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. This includes the popular $20,000 Exacta-Thon promo, which is back for both Friday (Kentucky Oaks Day) and Saturday (Kentucky Derby Day). Your task is to hit 6 different $2 exactas over the course of the card. Those who do so on Friday will split their share of $8k. Same is true for Derby Day. Plus, the horseplayer(s) that cash the most exactas each day will split an additional $2k. Lots of money up for grabs!!

Here are a few exactas I plan to include as part of my effort to earn a share of the $20,000!

Friday May 2

Race 11: Kentucky Oaks (G1)

Hopefully, I have already connected on 4 or 5 exactas heading into the biggest race of the year for 3YO fillies where I think #11 Good Cheer is a tier above the rest. It took a little while for me to come around on the Godolphin homebred despite a perfect 5 for 5-record heading into the Fair Grounds Oaks in late March, but she really impressed me that afternoon in New Orleans. The runner-up Ahavah opted to bypass the Oaks, but one could easily argue she would have been amongst Good Cheer’s main rivals on Friday. She made Good Cheer a work a bit, but in the end the Medaglia d’Oro filly proved to be too much once again under regular rider Luis Saez. I have no desire in trying to beat her in the Friday feature.

I will use two fillies that are listed at 10-1 on the ML underneath Good Cheer. #2 Simply Joking is one of the fillies I think has the upside to beat the favorite, but like the other ones she is a speed horse that very well could be compromised by the race shape. That said, she certainly could stick around given the inside draw and high ceiling. If the pace is too quick, #6 Ballerina d’Oro is the one I expect to pick up the pieces. I was underwhelmed by her effort in the Gazelle (G3) when she lugged in and almost was unable to seal the deal at odds-on, but she should benefit from being further off the pace in her third start off the bench.

Play:
11 with 2+6 (2 units)


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Saturday May 3

Race 1

I hope you do not sleep on the Derby Day opener. I know I won’t. In fact, it is one of the races I am most looking forward to wagering on. You ask why? Kind of the perfect mix. A pair of horses I have been waiting to return for positive reasons and a few I am looking forward to taking on.

#3 Fountain Lake did very little running through his first 3 starts, but really has turned a corner for trainer John Ortiz. The son of Improbable just missed despite traffic issues two-back at 50-1 and then last out at Keeneland put in a huge effort to finish third despite being caught very wide throughout. He appears ready for his best and draws favorably to the inside. #8 Sansone is the other horse I like. The pricey son of Uncle Mo made his first start since his debut at Saratoga last summer and likely would have found his way to the Gulfstream Park winner’s circle if not for getting caught in a terrible spot when loaded at the top of the lane. This colt has talent and with a cleaner trip should be in the mix, if not ahead at the wire.

Play:
3+8 Exacta Box (5 units)


Race 6: Pat Day Mile (G2)

Trainer Bob Baffert has won a lot of stakes races over the last decade or so, but it has been since 2006 since he has won this one-turn mile event for 3YO’s. He holds a strong hand in this year’s event though with the 2-1-morning line favorite #1 Madaket Road and 3-1-second choice #6 Gaming. They both have kept strong company thus far, but are far from world beaters. I am willing to let them beat me at their likely prices.

#2 Built is my top choice. The Hard Spun colt was in New Orleans running in the Fair Grounds Derby prep events all winter and made a solid account of himself, but tailed off as the races got longer. The Wayne Catalano trainee should get a perfect mid-pack trip along the inside, which should allow him to out finish this group under jockey Umberto Rispoli.

I like three others that should be solid prices. #4 Smoken Wicked may be a Louisiana-bred, but he fits well against these and is likely to get overlooked despite a runner-up effort in the Lafayette last month. #5 Gate to Wire was given a chance to prove he could handle two-turns in the Fountain of Youth (G2), but he is back doing what he does best. The cutback to a sprint should allow him to finish full of run. Flavien Prat taking the call for the first time will not hurt. Finally, #9 Perfect Force is not without a chance. He did not run well here as a 2YO, but came to life with a trio of solid efforts versus lesser at Oaklawn Park. At his 20-1-ML price, he is a must use.

Plays:

Exacta Wheel
2 with 4+5+9 (3 units)
4+5+9 with 2 (2 units)

Exacta Box
4+5+9 (1 unit)

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