Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move heads into the Kentucky Derby as the only prospective participant in the 1 1/4-mile classic to have earned more than a single triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure (BSF).
Practical Move posted a 100 Beyer when he won Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes by 2 1/2 lengths at 1 1/16 miles on March 4. He matched that 100 figure when he eked out a nose victory in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles.
Only three current candidates for the May 6 Kentucky Derby have an official triple-digit BSF to their credit. They are listed below:
Beyer Horse (Finish, Race)
101 Two Phil’s (1st, Jeff Ruby)
100 Practical Move (1st, Santa Anita Derby)
100 Practical Move (1st, San Felipe)
100 Mandarin Hero (2nd, Santa Anita Derby)
There were no official Beyers for the UAE Derby. However, Randy Moss of the Beyer Speed Figure-making team has stated that the victorious Derma Sotogake’s figure in that race is estimated to be in the triple-digit range. Also, Derma Sotogake’s UAE figure would be higher than the Beyer for the older Ushba Tesora’s victory on the same card in the second-richest horse race in the world, the $12 million Dubai World Cup.
It usually takes a triple-digit BSF to win the Kentucky Derby.
Listed below are the three current Kentucky Derby candidates to have come the closest to running a triple-digit Beyer:
99 Tapit Trice (1st, Blue Grass)
99 Verifying (2nd, Blue Grass)
99 Skinner (3rd Santa Anita Derby)
No other current Kentucky Derby candidate sports a Beyer higher than a 95. Two have a 95 figure to their credit. They are Reincarnate and Kingsbarns.
ARE DECLINING BEYERS A BIG DEAL?
When I dropped Forte from No. 2 to No. 5 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 last week, I wrote for Xpressbet.com that “unlike fellow [Todd] Pletcher trainees Kingsbarns and Tapit Trice, Forte’s Beyers are going into the wrong direction.”
I pointed out that after Forte registered a 100 Beyer in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he ran a 98 in the Fountain of Youth, then slid further down to a 95 in the Florida Derby.
Forte’s declining Beyer Speed Figure pattern piqued my curiosity.
I wondered, “Has any Kentucky Derby winner during the Beyer Speed Figure era had a declining pattern in his final three starts prior to the Run for the Roses, a la Forte?”
The Beyer Speed Figures were first published in Daily Racing Form’s Kentucky Derby past performances in 1992.
Only once from 1992 to the present has a Kentucky Derby winner had a declining Beyer pattern similar to Forte’s. That one horse was 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, who like Forte was the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male champion.
Street Sense recorded a 108 Beyer when he won the BC Juvenile by 10 lengths at Churchill Downs in his final start as a 2-year-old. Next, he dropped to a 102 BSF when he won the Tampa Bay Derby by a nose in his first start at 3. He then declined further to only a 93 BSF in his nose defeat when second in the Blue Grass Stakes.
After Street Sense’s 93 BSF in the Blue Grass, he took a giant leap to a 110 Beyer when he won the 2007 Kentucky Derby by 2 1/2 lengths.
The fact that only one of the last 31 Kentucky Derby winners went into the race with a declining Beyer Speed Figure pattern similar to Forte’s is, to me, a big red flag for Forte.
As I see it, another negative for Forte in the Kentucky Derby is he’s been unable to be first or second a furlong out in both of his last two starts. This suggests that he might not be first or second with a furlong left to run in the Kentucky Derby. And if he’s not first or second with a furlong to go in the Kentucky Derby, it greatly reduces his chances of winning insofar as 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second a furlong out.
As of last weekend at race books in Las Vegas, Forte was listed as the Kentucky Derby favorite at anywhere from 9-5 to 5-2. Is betting him to win at such a short price a good idea? I don’t think so, not with those declining Beyers and a concern that he won’t be first or second a furlong from the finish.
MY KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10
There are no changes to my Kentucky Derby Top 10 from last week. The list is below:
1. Practical Move
2. Kingsbarns
3. Tapit Trice
4. Angel of Empire
5. Forte
6. Derma Sotogake
7. Skinner
8. Two Phil’s
9. Mandarin Hero
10. Verifying
FIRST MISSION TAKES LEXINGTON STAKES
First Mission announced his candidacy for the Preakness Stakes by winning the Grade III Lexington Stakes at Keeneland last Saturday (April 15). He proved a punctual 2-1 favorite in the 1 1/16-mile contest, edging 7-2 Arabian Lion by a half-length. Disarm finished third, 4 1/4 lengths behind Arabian Lion.
By finishing first in the Lexington, First Mission earned 20 points toward a berth in the Kentucky Derby. Those 20 points are all that First Mission has earned, which are not early nearly enough to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Consequently, First Mission is expected to make his next start in the Preakness on May 20.
One horse was able to use the Lexington as a means to get into the Kentucky Derby. Disarm picked up six points for finishing third in the Lexington. That boosted his total to 46 points, putting him into Kentucky Derby 149.
KENTUCKY DERBY POINT STANDINGS
With all the races offering qualifying points now completed, the prospective field for the Kentucky Derby has taken shape. The field of 20 at this time is comprised of the the 19 leading point earners, plus Continuar’s invitation through the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. Churchill Downs lists six other possibilities, all hoping for a defection or defections from the current 20-horse field. The points are listed below (if two or more horses have the same number of points, the tiebreaker is earnings in non-restricted stakes race):
Rank (Points) Horse
1. (190) Forte
2. (160) Practical Move
3. (154) Angel of Freedom
4. (150) Tapit Trice
5. (123) Two Phil’s
6. (105) Lord Miles
7. (100) Derma Sotogake
8. (100) Kingsbarns
9. ( 64) Raise Cain
10. ( 60) Rocket Can
11. ( 60) Hit Show
12. ( 57) Confidence Game
13. ( 54) Verifying
14. ( 54) Sun Thunder
15. ( 50) Wild On Ice
16. ( 50) Mage
17. ( 46) Blazing Sevens
18. ( 46) Disarm
19. ( 45) Reincarnate
20. (invite) Continuar*
21. ( 45) Jace’s Road
22. ( 45) Skinner
23. ( 45) Cyclone Mischief
24. ( 40) Major Dude
25. ( 40) Mandarin Hero
26. ( 40) King Russell
* UAE Derby third Continuar has been extended an invitation to compete in the Kentucky Derby for accruing 40 points in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series.
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM
I developed my Derby Strikes System (DSS) back in 1999. Its purpose is to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.
Various “rules” for the Kentucky Derby were quite popular for many years. A “Derby rule” meant that a horse needed to have done this or that, or not done this or that, in order to win the Kentucky Derby. But when many of the “Derby rules” were broken through the years, their popularity waned.
I think it’s the marriage of both the TACTICAL with the HISTORICAL that makes the Derby Strikes System better than any single “Derby rule.”
A number of the categories in the Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Thus, when the 2020 running was changed from May 2 to Sept. 5 because of COVID, the Derby Strikes System was unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby returned to its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021 and 2022, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.
It’s when a 3-year-old makes his or her final start before the Kentucky Derby that I can determine their number of strikes in the DSS.
The DSS consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.
The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.
History shows that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more. According to the DSS, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 83% of the Kentucky Derby winners (40 out of 49) have had zero strikes or one strike going back to 1973.
The eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes were Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).
Only one horse, Mine That Bird in 2009, has had more than two strikes. He had four.
The strikes for the current Kentucky Derby candidates are listed below:
ZERO STRIKES
Angel of Empire
Derma Sotogake
Hit Show
Major Dude
Practical Move
Tapit Trice
ONE STRIKE
Confidence Game (Category 5)
Forte (Category 3)
Kingsbarns (Category 7)
Lord Miles (Category 3)
Raise Cain (Category 5)
Reincarnate (Category 4)
Rocket Can (Category 5)
Two Phil’s (Category 4)
Wild On Ice (Category 8)
TWO STRIKES
Blazing Sevens (Categories 3 and 6)
Cyclone Mischief (Categories 2 and 4)
Disarm (Categories 2 and 3)
Jace’s Road (Categories 2 and 4)
Mandarin Hero (Categories 1 and 2)
Skinner (Categories 2 and 3)
Sun Thunder (Categories 2 and 3)
Verifying (Categories 2 and 4)
THREE STRIKES
Continuar (Categories 2, 3 and 4)
King Russell (Categories 1, 2 and 3)
Mage (Categories 2, 4 and 7)
WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973
Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. That’s because two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
Maximum Security finished first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But the stewards disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th for committing a foul when he veered out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy. Country House was declared the winner of the 2019 Kentucky Derby.
Medina Spirit finished first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But Medina Spirit was disqualified due to testing positive for traces of betamethasone, a medication that is legal to use but not on race day.
The strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:
2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)
*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money
**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES
What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:
1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005 and Rich Strike in 2022 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners through 2022 have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010 and Mandaloun in 2021, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)
7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 1 for 67 in the Kentucky Derby through 2022. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)
8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
DR. FAGER AND THE 1968 CALIFORNIAN
The Grade II Californian Stakes will be run this Saturday (April 22) at Santa Anita.
When Dr. Fager put together one of the greatest campaigns by a Thoroughbred in American racing history in 1968, one of his victories came in the Californian.
“Dr. Fager was a singular performer as a 4-year-old in 1968,” Charles Hatton wrote in the American Racing Manual. “He was appropriately awarded Horse of the Year honors, which is the ultimate accolade, and excelled in more departments and more divisional titles than any horse since the Daily Racing Form and The Morning Telegraph poll was instituted in 1936.”
In addition to his Horse of the Year crown, Dr. Fager in 1968 was voted best handicap horse, best grass horse and best sprinter. He became the first and still only American racehorse to be voted four titles in a single season.
Dr. Fager won seven of eight starts in 1968. In a tremendous demonstration of weight-carrying ability that year, he never -- I repeat never -- raced with less than 130 pounds. That in itself is remarkable. His highest weight that year and in his career was the 139 pounds he carried to a six-length victory in the seven-furlong Vosburgh Handicap, which was his final start.
Each time that Dr. Fager went to the post in 1968, a world, American, track or course record was in jeopardy.
“Dr. Fager set and tied records from seven furlongs to a mile and a quarter, slashing the world mile mark to 1:32 1/5 en route,” Hatton wrote.
In the 1968 Washington Park Handicap at Arlington Park, Dr. Fager carried 134 pounds. He made that burdensome impost seem like a feather, winning in splendid isolation by 10 lengths. His 1:32 1/5 clocking shaved two-fifths of a second off the world record for one mile set by Buckpasser two years earlier at Arlington.
Braulio Baeza rode Dr. Fager in the Washington Park Handicap and in all of the headstrong 4-year-old colt’s other races that year other than his 1968 debut in which John Rotz was the pilot.
I interviewed Baeza in 2006 at Santa Anita. This was what he had to say about Dr. Fager: “He was a great horse, a very competitive horse. He didn’t want to see any horses in front of him. He was a very energetic horse. He was a little bit hard to control. But he could punch a hole in the wind. I don’t know if any horse could ever have beaten him up to a mile. His speed was very deceiving because he had such a smooth stride.”
Dr. Fager’s lone defeat in 1968 came when he packed 135 pounds and spotted five pounds to familiar foe Damascus in the 1 1/4-mile Brooklyn Handicap. Damascus won by 2 1/2 lengths. Dr. Fager finished second.
As for the 1968 Californian, trainer John Nerud had Dr. Fager flown from New York to Los Angeles two days before the May 18 race.
In those years, the conditions for the 1 1/8-mile Californian were extremely complicated. It was difficult to determine how much weight a horse was supposed to carry. The conditions for the 1968 Californian stated the following:
“3-year-olds 113 lbs.; older 127 lbs. Winners of $65,000 twice since September 1, 1967 to carry 3 lbs. additional, Non-winners of $50,000 twice since December 25, 1967 allowed 3 lbs.; of $70,000 once since July 25, 1967 or $50,000 twice since December 25, 1966, 6 lbs.; of $75,000 once or $30,000 twice since December 25, 1966, 9 lbs.; of $30,000 since December 25, 1966, $13,000 twice since May 9, 1967 or $13,000 since April 8, 1968, 12 lbs.; of $15,000 since May 9, 1967, 15 lbs. Starters to be named through the entry box the day before the race by closing time of the entries.”
No wonder Dr. Fager’s weight originally was miscalculated.
At the time of the 1968 Californian, Bob Benoit was Hollywood Park’s director of publicity.
“When Dr. Fager was entered in the Californian, he was entered with the wrong weight,” Benoit told me years later.
According to Bob Hebert’s Californian recap in The Blood-Horse magazine, Nerud thought that Dr. Fager would be carrying 124 pounds.
“After the entries came out, the racing office re-checked the weights,” Benoit said. “When they did that, they found a mistake had been made. Dr. Fager was going to have to carry 130.”
Benoit told me that he was given the unenviable task of having to call Nerud to tell him that Dr. Fager would be carrying 130 pounds instead of 124. According to Benoit, the conversation went like this:
Benoit: “I have some bad news regarding Dr. Fager.”
Nerud: “Did something happen to the horse on the plane?”
Benoit: “No, no. As far as I know, the horse is fine.”
Nerud: “Then what’s the bad news?”
Benoit: “Well, there was a mistake in the weight Dr. Fager has to carry.”
Nerud: “Is that right? So how much does he have to carry?”
Benoit: “130.”
After a pause, Nerud only had this to say: “It won’t matter.”
The next thing Benoit heard was the click of the phone being hung up by Nerud.
Well, it turned out that Nerud was right. Future Hall of Famer Dr. Fager won the Californian “by an easy three lengths,” according to Hebert’s story. Gamely, the only filly in the field and a future Hall of Famer herself, finished second. Rising Market came in third, while sprint star Kissin’ George ended up 10th.
You can watch Dr. Fager’s victory in the 1968 Californian on YouTube (Harry Henson has the call).
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 301 Elite Power (24)
2. 215 Stilleto Boy (3)
3. 209 Art Collector (6)
4. 174 West Will Power
5. 171 Clairiere
6. 104 Goodnight Olive
7. 103 Secret Oath
8. 111 Last Samurai
9. 91 In Italian
10. 84 Cody’s Wish (1)
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 342 Forte (29)
2. 285 Tapit Trice (4)
3. 261 Practical Move (1)
4. 253 Angel of Empire
5. 182 Kingsbarns (1)
6. 114 Derma Sotogake
7. 90 Two Phil’s
8. 76 Verifying
9. 68 Mage
10. 53 Confidence Game
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