We are down to two weekends of Triple Crown preps meaning there are just four more chances to take advantage of our two-month long Money Back Special promotion. I am sure most of you are registered and aware of the parameters, but for those checking in for the first time when the calendar turns April, it is simple. Register on the promotional landing page and get up to $10 back on your first Win bet if your horse finishes second or third. It is a big weekend of races that will almost finalize the Kentucky Derby starters, so let’s get to my plays.
Blue Grass (G1), Keeneland Race 11
The first of three 100-point to the winner races over less than a 90-minute time span is the traditional Keeneland Spring Meet Saturday headliner. The Blue Grass (G1) goes to post at 6:22 eastern where #6 Further Ado was listed as the morning line favorite. If he runs back to his massive maiden win over this racetrack last fall, he will be a tough customer, but we did not see that horse in his long-planned return in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). Perhaps, he moves forward in his second try off the bench, but I am concerned we saw the best of him as a 2YO.
I love the chances of #2 Reagan’s Honor. The son of Honor A.P. did not take the standard approach on the Derby Trail, instead opting to run in an allowance for 3YOs+ after his wire-to-wire victory on January 17. Cherie DeVaux has given him the perfect amount of time to recover from his monster score in mid-February. I am expecting another big effort from the $140k Keeneland September 2022 purchase in his first start against stakes foes.
Play: #4 Reagan’s Honor (5-2 ML)
Wood Memorial (G2), Aqueduct Race 12
The Wood is up twelve minutes later and unlike the Kentucky Derby, there looks to be a lot of speed signed on in the last edition of this race to be conducted at Aqueduct Race Track. The 9-furlong affair has two serious speed horses down on the inside in #1 Napoleon Solo and #2 Talk to Me Jimmy. With plenty of tactical speed types to the outside as well it should set things up for a closer. I am hopeful #5 Ocelli opts to run in this spot, not the Blue Grass because I really like his chances in New York. The son of Connect ran far better than looks in his sixth-place finish in the Virginia Derby after a less-than-ideal voyage in the Sam F. Davis. Perhaps, this colt is hard to ride or not the most athletic horse, but he has had things difficult in several of his races. The Whit Beckman trainee has raced against two of the four horses in my top tier for this year’s Run for the Roses and due to get the right setup. Joe Ramos is back onboard with the blinkers coming off for the first time in 2026.
Play: Ocelli (20-1 ML)
Santa Anita Derby (G1), Santa Anita Race 10
The final Grade 1 on the Road to the Kentucky Derby is conducted at the Great Race Place at 7:46 eastern/4:46 local time. The featured event on a strong 12-race card has two Bob Baffert runners listed as the two ML choices. I am not sure #2 Potente will go favored over #1 Cherokee Nation, but only one of the two has the upside I am looking for. #2 Potente was all out to beat a modest group in the San Felipe (G2), while Cherokee Nation woke up and ran off the screen breaking his maiden against a field of 3YOs and up. I much prefer Cherokee Nation of the two, but expect him to get over bet, so will take a swing against both with #7 Intrepido. The son of Maximus Mischief makes his second start of the year after a runner-up effort in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) in January. He broke sharp and was part of the early pace that day, but with the outside draw and speed to his inside, I expect jockey Hector Berrios to opt to relax this ridgling a bit in the early stages. If he is able to do so, I think he should be full of run late. He should be a fair price. Hopefully, he runs back to his American Pharoah (G1) effort over this same surface.
Play: #7 Intrepido (7-2 ML)
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