This Saturday’s card is not necessarily as star-powered as last weekend’s Whitney Day extravaganza, but there is plenty of great action to take part in at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet nonetheless. The 12-race card is headlined by the Christophe Clement (G1) at 12-furlongs over the Inner Turf. The feature goes as Race 9 and makes up the second leg of the late Pick 5. Here are my thoughts on the entire card.
Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.
Race 1:
Grade: B-
Use: 5 Antietam; 6 Salming
Forecast: The pace should be contentious in this $30k non-winners of three claiming event over the main track. This should bode well for those that can settle early and finish with energy. #6 Salming is the obvious runner. The 5YO gelding makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice after an easy win from off-the-pace going away on July 24. If he can avoid regression off the class hike, he should be tough, but the tote will show that as well, so I will take a swing with #5 Antietam. The Curlin colt has not paid off his sales price, but could relish the cutback to a sprint after a pair of nine-furlong races to start the summer meeting. He is almost certain to be last early, but also should be rolling late if I am right about the race shape.
Race 2:
Grade: B-
Use: 5 Santis; 3 Saratoga Tee; 4 Mindfield; 8 Upper Echelon; 7 Big Handsome
Forecast: A challenging state-bred MSW event at six-furlongs over the main track kicks off the early Pick 4 where there are a few ways I considered going, but in the end went with the biggest price #5 Santis. Trainer Mike Maker has quietly had a solid summer and is 4 for 17 with a $4.08 ROI over the last three years with 2YOs making their first start over the Saratoga dirt. Maker sends out this son of Epicenter who is out of a Majesticperfection mare that has already produced a pair of debut runners. Santis is likely to get a bit overlooked in the wagering with plenty of other solid options for horseplayers.
Race 3:
Grade: B-
Use: 9 Sweet Redemption; 5 Nystateofmind; 8 Arawak; 6 J Buck
Forecast: A second division of 2YO state-bred special weights at six-panels follows where #4 Road Show is expected to be a heavy favorite off of his runner-up effort over this surface on debut on July 12. It was a solid first out performance for the Roadster colt, but he got a huge setup that day in a race that absolutely feel apart late. So, I will try to beat him with a few, including long shot #9 Sweet Redemption. Trainer James Ryerson is capable at the Spa with a price horse and has a chance to get one to the wire first with this son of Twirling Candy that was beaten handily by the chalk on debut, but had a much different voyage chasing the early pace. The racing experience and move to an outside draw should lead to a much-improved performance from this Dirico Racing homebred.
Race 4:
Grade: C+
Use: 2 Lady Rose/5 Top of the Table
Forecast: Trainer Linda Rice has a strong 1-2-punch entered in this state-bred first-level allowance out of the Wilson chute with 9-5-favorite #2 Lady Rose and 3-1-second choice #5 Top of the Table. Lady Rose met a much stronger group at this level last out when she chased the pace of gate-to-wire winner Queens Cat early and tired late to finish fourth. She should perform much better on the stretch out versus this weaker bunch. If the chalk fails, stablemate Top of the Table is likely to be the one to beat her. She ships into Saratoga after shaking off the rust at Finger Lakes last month. Kendrick Carmouche is should have her in a prominent spot early.
Race 5:
Grade: C+
Use: 2 Tongue Twister; 1 Bertrille
Forecast: #8 Considerate City enters this state-bred first-level allowance event over the Inner Turf as the heavy 8-5-ML favorite. This is understandable since she has finished ahead of the rivals in this group she has encountered recently and comes in off three consecutive runner-up efforts. The problem is her lack of speed. She always comes with a big run late, but often without her ever having a chance to win the race. No doubt, she has a shot to beat this group, but I am not willing to swallow the chalk on a horse whose lone win came via DQ last September. I will use the two inside runners. #1 Bertrille and #2 Tongue Twister both need to move forward off of their latest runs, but draw favorably along the inside and should get the jump on Considerate City at better prices.
Race 6:
Grade: C+
Use: 2 V Formation; 5 Oneinamilliongirl 3 Libby Lloyd
Forecast: #8 Tumoohaat is listed as the 5-2-ML favorite in this six-furlong dash for 2YO fillies over the main track where I could talk for days given the pedigrees, sales prices, and barns with firsters. The Shadwell Stable filly is by star sire Into Mischief out of 2021 Kentucky Oaks winner Malathaat. Malathaat won at first asking going seven-furlongs and no doubt her first foal can win this race, but there are far too many well-bred horses in here to bet this likely short price.
A couple of price options are intriguing. #5 Oneinamilliongirl selling for 60 times her stud fee and attracting Jose Ortiz is noteworthy, but she is likely to take some public support for her Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winning trainer. That said, she appears to be shipping in from Ellis Park with purpose. #2 V Formation is the runner I like that I do not expect to get bet. The $400k OBS April ’26 purchase must have looked the part commanding 40 times her sire’s stud fee in Ocala. She debuts for a barn without sparkling numbers with debut runners, but one that has won an open company MSW race with a first-time starter the last two years. She has a good shot to outrun her odds.
Race 7:
Grade: B
Use: 3 No Evidence/4 Final Verdict
Forecast: There is a serious lack of early speed signed on in this second-level allowance sprinting over the grass, which should put #3 No Evidence in a good spot early. The son of Vekoma comes in off a win against lesser where she broke well, but was content to let two speeds to her inside battle. With the lack of zip in this one and an inside post, I expect Flavien Prat to get her into a favorable forward position and go from there. #4 Final Verdict is the one likely to be up there with her in the early stages, but not sure her speed will be as good from the gate exiting a two-turn race last month. These two though should be in a good spot to thrive given the likely race dynamics.
Race 8:
Grade: C
Use: 3 Q B Rocket; 2 Card Man/8 Damavand; 5 Katz in the Cradle
Forecast: This open company 2YO MSW event for the boys also came up strong, but I lack a strong opinion. #2 Card Man and #3 Q B Rocket both appear live at first asking for big barns, but are unlikely to provide much value. I have horses I slightly prefer over others if the two favorites do not fire, but not with much confidence, so I will tread lightly in the first leg of the late Pick 5.
Race 9: Christophe Clement (G1)
Grade: B-
Use: 5 Fort George; 3 Ole Crazy Bone
Forecast: The featured event was called the Sword Dancer, but has been renamed in honor of the longtime New York based Hall of Fame conditioner. The race run over the Inner Turf is run at 1 1/2-miles and drew a compact field of seven led by the top three from last month’s Bowling Green (G2). #3 Ole Crazy Bone held on gamely to beat #5 Fort George with #6 Minaret Station finishing an off-the-pace third. I still think Minaret Station is the most-talented of the trio and in this field, but once again am concerned he will be up against it from a race shape perspective making his 3-1-price tough to swallow. I slightly prefer Fort George to Ole Crazy Bone in the rematch. He is capable of regressing second time in the States, but also has more of a ceiling at this point. A move forward and he gets to the wire first.
Race 10: Galway
Grade: B
Use: 4 Queen Juno; 2 Epic Lady Luck
Forecast: The other stakes race on the Saturday agenda is a 5.5-furlong turf dash for 3YO fillies and it appears wide open. I will take a swing with a couple of the bigger prices on David Aragona’s morning line. #4 Queen Juno is the higher price of the two Joe Sharp runners, but ran a better than looks second last out in the first start for her new barn. It appears to be a lesser spot at a quick glance, but that came against older runners and the winner was a buzz saw first off the plane from Australia. The fact Sharp brings her back on just two weeks rest I take as a positive at this price. #2 Epic Lady Luck is also intriguing. Trainer George Weaver has become one of the best turf sprint conditioners in the country. He sends out this Vekoma filly for her first start in his care and since a strong third at Gulfstream Park in January. This gal has a better chance of running well than the tote will suggest.
Race 11:
Grade: C+
Use: 4 Celtic Prince; 2 Calling Card
Forecast: #2 Calling Card was made the understandable 5-2-ML favorite in this state-bred starter out of the Wilson chute. He has run the fastest races and makes his first start off the claim for owner/trainer Linda Rice. My only concern is how he takes to his first trip out of the new(ish) configuration. I do not have that much else against this gelding, but prefer the likely price of #4 Celtic Prince. The Keri Brion trainee returns to New York to take on fellow NY-breds after competing in the Mid-Atlantic in his last three starts. He lacks class, but I like his running style for this course. Plus, he attracts Irad for his first Saratoga start.
Race 12:
Grade: C+
Use: 3 D C Boy’s; 1 Before the Wind; 4 Osiris Law
Forecast: Backers of 5-2-ML favorite #8 Gilbane in his start in late July have to still be sick to their stomach about losing at over 5-1, but that does not make him a cinch in this spot. In fact, it feels like last time was the time to me since he had a great trip and now moves to an outside post. I will try to beat him with a few, including #3 D C Boy’s. The son of Bolt d’Oro has not lived up to expectations or close as a 5YO, but does make his first start going long on the grass for Mike Maker. He will not have to be much to get the best of this state-bred maiden claiming group on the lawn to close the day.
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