The second Saturday of the 2024 Saratoga summer meeting is headlined by the return of Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Acorn (G1) winner, Thorpedo Anna in the Coaching Club American Oaks. The Grade 1 event for 3YO fillies goes as Race 11 on a twelve-race extravaganza that kicks off at 12:35PM eastern time. The featured event makes up the fourth leg of a fun Late Pick 5 sequence that gets rolling in Race 8.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Federal Judge
Backups: None
Forecast: #2 Federal Judge makes his first start since the Woody Stephens (G1) at Belmont Park last June. Prior to being thrown to the wolves by former trainer Rodolphe Brisset, the son of Army Mule had been impressive rattling off back-to-back victories to kick off his career, including a length win against the highly regarded Extra Anejo on the Kentucky Derby undercard a year ago. The 4YO now appears in the Brad Cox barn and comes in off a steady series of drills in Kentucky and most recently a solid 4-furlong drill in 48 seconds flat over the Saratoga training track. He should be fit enough off the bench to handle this group of second-level allowance foes under jockey Manny Franco.
Race 9:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 Major Dude; 9 Steady On
Backups: 8 Andthewinneris; 5 Cash Equity
Forecast: There is very little speed signed on in this high-level optional claimer at 1 1/8 miles over the turf. Therefore, I will lean most on a pair of Todd Pletcher runners that should find prominent spots early, including #2 Major Dude. The Bolt d’Oro colt shook off the rust last out when he almost nailed gate-to-wire winner, Big Everest at the wire in his first start since last September. Expect Hall of Famer John Velazquez to send from the gate and find a good forward position in this one’s first start over the Saratoga sod. #9 Steady On looks like the other potential pacesetter but he is unlikely to get in a tussle with his stablemate on the backstretch. Instead, Dylan Davis will probably sit just off the early pace leading to a moderate early tempo. This $275k Keeneland September 2020 purchase should have every shot to run by Major Dude in the lane if he is good enough.
#8 Andthewinneris makes his first start for new trainer Chad Brown. The son of Oscar Performance was impressive in his late running debut win at Keeneland back in April of 2022 but he disappointed for the most part during his 3YO campaign. Perhaps the time off, the ultimate equipment change, and moving into the hands of one of the best turf trainers in the world will lead to significant improvement. #5 Cash Equity ships into New York having finished second in three straight starts. He clearly fits against these but may have too much to do late given the likelihood of a moderate early tempo.
Race 10: Lake George S. (G3)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 2 Oversubscribed; 1 Gavea
Backups: 7 De Regreso
Forecast: #2 Oversubscribed has done little wrong through three starts. The Klaravich Stables filly has won 2 of 3 to start her career with the lone defeat coming two-back at Aqueduct when she not only raced against the flow chasing a lone speed winner to the wire, but she was forced to check before they reached the far turn. She should be tough to hold off in her first graded stakes try assuming jockey Joel Rosario is able to work out a cleaner off the pace voyage. #1 Gavea ran huge in her Stateside debut last September at Churchill Downs but it clearly took a lot out of her. She was eased in her start after it in New York and given time until June when she put forth a very solid return effort in the Regret (G3). Trainer Al Stall Jr. is off to a strong early start to the meet making this filly the clear value play in this year’s Lake George (G3).
#7 De Regreso ships in from Florida for trainer Antonio Sano off of three consecutive victories at Gulfstream Park, including two of their lawn. Trainer Antonio Sano is 2 for 9 with turf runners at Saratoga over the last five years with five of them finishing in the money. Her versatility gives her a shot to spring the upset.
Race 11: Coaching Club American Oaks (G1)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 3 Thorpedo Anna
Backups: None
Forecast: #3 Thorpedo Anna was excellent as a juvenile winning in back-to-back starts to kick off her career before suffering her lone lifetime defeat to Intricate in the Golden Rod (G2) to conclude her 2YO campaign. The Fast Anna filly did not return to the races until late March but she stamped herself as a top contender for the Kentucky Oaks with her four-length victory off the layoff in the Fantasy (G2) at Oaklawn Park. The rest has been history. The Kenny McPeek trainee dazzled against the best in her crop this spring with dominant wins in the Oaks and Acorn (G1) and has already proven success over this surface. I have zero interest in trying to beat her despite her very short price.
Race 12:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6 Vintage Vino; 3 Artempus; 9 Four Top; 10 De La Cruz
Backups: None
Forecast: The Saturday card concludes with a ten-furlong event over the Saratoga Inner Turf where I will be hoping to beat #1 Factor Analysis. The Chad Brown trained colt has lost at 2-1 or less in four starts to kick off his career despite finishing within a length of the winner in all four tries. The Vino Rosso colt clearly appears to lack a will to win early on his career making a short price extremely tough to swallow. He is listed as the 7-5-morning line favorite along with stablemate #1A Take Your Seats who needs a defection or two to draw in off the AE list. Hopefully, we can navigate our way through the first four legs and give ourselves a chance to beat the chalk to close things out.
I lack a strong opinion outside of being against Factor Analysis, so I will use several including #2 Artempus who has also burnt a lot of money thus far but has been gelded since his last start in Kentucky, #6 Vintage Vino who gets blinkers in his third career start for Linda Rice, #9 Four Top who is protected in his first start off the claim for Mike Maker, and #10 De La Cruz who makes his third start of the form cycle for trainer Christophe Clement. Let’s get one of them home to end the day!
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