One of the biggest days of the summer is upon us in upstate New York on Saturday where it is Whitney Day at Saratoga. The $1M Grade 1 at 1 1/8 miles is the headliner, but there are a trio of other Grade 1 events, as well as a plethora of loaded maiden and allowance races.
The big day also marks another chance at our popular Exacta-Thon promotion at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Details and registering are on the landing page, but the goal is to hit as many $2 exactas as possible over the course of the day. $5k is up for grabs with $3k split between all of those who can connect on five with the other $2k going to the customer(s) that hit the most.
The 14-race slate gets started at 11:45 PM eastern. Here are my thoughts on each race.
Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.
Race 1:
Grade: B-
Use: 4 With Luck Forward; 3 Gorillaz; 5 Star Salute
Forecast: The card gets started with this 6.5-furlong dash for 2YOs where there is strong pedigrees amongst the nine first-time starters entered. #3 Gorillaz is a half-brother to Magnitude and is listed as the 5-2-ML favorite for Danny Gargan. I included him in my top few along with Dr. Venkman’s half-brother #5 Star Salute, but will ride the hot hand of Todd Pletcher on top at what should be a fair price. #4 With Luck Forward is out of a Speightstown mare that won first out sprinting at Gulfstream Park and has already produced a pair of runners that also won at first asking. He comes in off a steady series of local drills and lures Jose Ortiz.
Race 2:
Grade: C+
Use: 6 Iron Confessor; 10 Implied Open; 8 Mystrix
Forecast: I struggled finding something I liked with confidence in the second division of the 6.5-furlong dash for 2YOs, so I took a swing with #6 Iron Confessor. Trainer Amelia Green has not had much luck so far this summer at the Spa and has had no success on her own thus far with first-time starters. That said, she worked under Todd Pletcher for some time, so it is likely more of a stock thing than anything she specifically is not doing to have them cranked at first asking. Her statistics should help the price on #6 Iron Confessor. The son of Basin commanded $190k at the OBS March ’26 sale, which is noteworthy since his sire stands for just $5k. The fact Green attracts Flavien Prat leads me to believe this colt has some talent and worth a swing in a wide-open start to the early Pick 4.
Race 3:
Grade: B-
Use: 4 Vibe/6 Yo Daddy
Forecast: There is a noticeable lack of early speed in this $130k allowance, which should benefit #4 Vibe assuming he is no worse for the wear after being pulled up out of the Met Mile (G1) in early June. The $3M Keeneland September ’23 purchase came into his first stakes start on a three-race winning streak and should have no issue controlling the pace on the stretch out with Irad Ortiz Jr. jumping onboard for the initial time. If he is right and loose on the lead, I expect him to be very tough to catch. If Vibe fails to fire his best shot, #6 Yo Daddy is a solid alternative. Trainer Linda Rice is heating up and this son of Yoshida cuts back in distance after a stalk and fade in the Suburban (G2).
Race 4:
Grade: C+
Use: 1 Consumer Sentiment; 8 Lovely Christina
Forecast: I struggled to get creative in this first-level allowance over the grass where 2-1-ML favorite #1 Consumer Sentiment has not raced in 16 months, but still appears the one to beat. The daughter of Speightstown found a favorable mid-pack spot from her outside draw in her turf debut last May before winning for fun. The time off is a concern as always, but she has six works in succession for a barn that can have them ready off the bench. Plus, she draws favorably along the rail and gets Flavien Prat for the first time. She is the one to beat, but not one I am rushing to bet. Perhaps, #8 Lovely Christina will give her a run for her money. The Vekoma filly tries the grass for the first time. She is out of a Wildcat Heir mare that earned 7 of her 8 career wins over the grass and gets Irad in the saddle.
Race 5:
Grade: B-
Use: 3 Agoo; 7 Tagermeen
Forecast: A pair of 3YOs tackling older competition are expected to take the most money by oddsmaker David Aragona with #6 Pretty Boy Miah listed as the 2-1-top choice. The son of Beau Liam very well could appreciate the cutback to a sprint after being caught wide into the first turn in his third-place finish going 1 1/8-miles last out, but that price is far too short for me. I outright prefer 3-1-second choice #7 Tagermeen who failed to win as a juvenile, but took on some of the fastest 2YOs in the land. He won professionally off the layoff to kick off his 3YO campaign and should get another great trip under Jose Ortiz. He is the likeliest winner, but #3 Agoo is the horse I am more excited to wager on. The range of outcomes is high on this 5YO making his first start since October ’24, but he has been working steadily for some time for trainer Whit Beckman. Picking a spot on Whitney Day for his return appears to be a tell that he is ready to roll.
Race 6:
Grade: B-
Use: 3 Red Poppy; 6 Aerial Affair; 7 Dulce Vita
Forecast: #6 Aerial Affair ran big in her first start. She did not break well and made a big middle move trying to catch up to impressive first out winner Angel of Kirk. The Flightline filly was passed late for the runner-up spot, but was clearly second best that day. She should improve with the experience under her belt, but meets what appears to be a loaded field. #7 Dulce Vita has the pedigree I like most in terms of precocity, but Todd Pletcher’s barn is going too well to overlook. The Hall of Fame conditioner is 10 for 27 over the last 15 days at the Spa for a $4.03 ROI and sends out #3 Red Poppy. The bottom side pedigree is fine, but far from overwhelming, yet she sold for $900k at Ocala in April. She has been working strong, including a bullet best of 26 five-furlong drill on August 1. I am expecting a big effort the way this barn is going of late.
Race 7:
Grade: C
Use: 4 Write Off Jerry; 1 Monterey Bay; 8 Fort Thomas
Forecast: I struggled to make heads or tails of this first-level allowance over the Inner Turf, so logically I will take a swing with a big price. #4 Write Off Jerry makes his first start off the claim for trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci after being caught wide throughout in a similar spot in early July. The son of Practical Joke moves to an inside post, ran well in his other two starts over the Saratoga green, and gets a positive rider upgrade at the moment to Manny Franco. I like him most given value in a race I can see just about anything happening in.
Race 8:
Grade: C+
Use: 1 Djokovic; 6 Port in a Storm; 12 And the Runner Is; 7 Revenue Stream
Forecast: This MSW event for 2YOs at 1 1/16-miles over the Inner Turf is another race where there are plenty of ways to go. The ML favorites #7 Revenue Stream and #12 And the Runner is make plenty of sense. And the Runner is nearly got there on debut, but fell short and finished second. He retains Irad, but draws once again unfavorably. Revenue Stream is one of several first-timers entered. He might want longer in the end, but gets Prat for a barn obviously capable. They are more likely to win than others, but it is a betting game and #1 Djokovic and #6 Port in a Storm are the values. Djokovic is out of a fantastic female family and draws the rail on debut, while Port in a Storm is a half-brother to Limited Liability. Shug McGaughey has had a slow summer, but is still capable of popping with a two-turn horse debuting over the lawn.
Race 9: Test (G1)
Grade: B
Use: 1 Movie Night/3 Sippin Pretty
Forecast: The first of the four Grade 1 races is the premier event of the summer for 3YO filly sprinters and it drew yet another strong field. #7 Explora was made the 5-2-ML favorite off of her win over #6 On Time Girl two months ago at Churchill Downs. Both the Bob Baffert and Brad Cox trainees fit well in here, but I prefer a pair of fillies with a bit less experience.
#1 Movie Night is my top choice. This Winstar Farm homebred has done almost nothing wrong through three starts and should get an honest to pace to chase. The fact she has to deal with the rail for the first time is the main concern, but gets the right man in the saddle in Jose Ortiz. #3 Sippin Pretty has also done little wrong yet for Ian Wilkes, but her one chance against On Time Girl led to a disappointing effort. She should get another great trip though at a fair price under Ricardo Santana Jr. after a perfect one in her win in the Victory Ride (G3) last month.
Race 10: Fourstardave (G1)
Grade: B-
Use: 1 Rhetorical; 7 Lagynos
Forecast: I am hoping for a Will Walden Grade 1 double since I landed on NY-bred #1 Rhetorical in this year’s Fourstardave. The son of Not This Time has competed in races that are a bit longer than he prefers since the Turf Classic (G1) and the Manhattan (G1) were the best spots for him, but he should relish getting back to eight-furlongs. He was too good for the field two-back on Derby Day, but the distance clearly caught up with him last out. Now, the 5YO gelding draws the rail and should get a dream run in the pocket with Irad back in the saddle. He is likely to be tough to get by late. If the race falls apart late, the underappreciated #7 Lagynos is the likeliest to run by them all. The Steve Asmussen trainee has won 10 of 28 overall, including five in a row. I am not sure his late kick is at its best at one-mile, but it will probably be good enough if he gets the right setup.
Race 11: Saratoga Derby (G1)
Grade: C+
Use: 4 Title Role; 10 West End Kid/6 Glacius
Forecast: I lack a strong opinion in this 1 3/16-mile event for 3YOs over the grass other than 3-1-favorite #3 Remember Mamba appears once again unlikely to get the right setup for his strong late kick. Last out in the Belmont Derby (G1), Jose Ortiz had the Kitten’s Joy colt closer than expected due to a slow early tempo. With the lack of speed once again signed on, he is probably going to have to be much the best to get to the wire first. I will try to get the jump on him with #4 Title Role and #10 West End Kid. They finished 1-2 last out besting Remember Mamba by a neck and have the tactical speed from the gate that the favorite lacks.
Race 12: Whitney (G1)
Grade: C+
Use: 3 Antiquarian; 5 White Abarrio
Forecast: The featured event drew the top three from the Stephen Foster (G1) run over the sloppy going in late June. #1 Magnitude wired out the field that day earning his fourth straight win, but I am not so sure the Winchell Thoroughbreds colt is going to have things too easy on the front end in the Whitney. With the filly #2 Nitrogen to his immediate outside and #4 Forged Steel not too far away, it is hard to see a scenario outside of gate issues that lead to an easy lead for the near $10M earner.
#8 Baeza ran by stablemate #6 Sovereignty easily in the lane in the Foster despite another terrible break from the starting gate. Baeza clearly has a lot of ability, but something appears to be missing from a mental standpoint making him tough to trust. Sovereignty is likely to run his race, but I do not think his best stands out in 2026 like it did a year ago. Plus, he is almost certain to be an underlay.
The lack of excitement in the three favorites’ chances at their likely off odds has me looking for a price. #5 White Abarrio is definitely worth consideration if he gets overlooked in the wagering. The son of Race Day has not performed at his best at Saratoga, but should get a great trip and obviously has races that beat this group. I ended up landing on #3 Antiquarian though. As mentioned already, the Todd Pletcher barn is on fire and this horse has had excuses in his last three. He has raced twice this year at too sharp of a distance and then last time did not have much go his way when chasing gate-to-wire winner Phileas Fogg. The son of Preservationist has run some big races over his 13-race career and gets hot riding Manny Franco aboard at a square price.
Race 13:
Grade: B
Use: 3 Helen’s Revenge
Forecast: There should be an honest pace in this first-level allowance at 7-furlongs, which bodes well for the chances of #3 Helen’s Revenge. The Linda Rice trainee rattled off three wins in a row this spring at Aqueduct before finishing third in a race here in early June where the speeds ran 1-2 around the track. She did well to finish third and now gets a rider upgrade to Flavien Prat. Hopefully, we get the 6-1-ML offering.
Race 14:
Grade: C+
Use: 4 Versailles Road; 6 Very Connected; 8 Miztronic; 9 Stark; 5 Light Cav
Forecast: The pace should also be honest in the finale assuming both #1 Rothschild and #7 Complex Agenda remain in the field. Many handicappers will look to 7-2-favorite #2 General Partner, but I lack interest in the Kingman colt. He has failed twice as the public choice since breaking his maiden a year ago over this course. I am not convinced the added ground will make enough of a difference. I will use a number of runners against the chalk to close things out, including another Todd Pletcher runner as my top choice. #4 Versailles Road broke his maiden in gate-to-wire fashion, but is unlikely to be on the lead in this spot. He ran a solid third in a similar spot in his first try versus winners and moves to a more favorable inside draw.
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