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After a weekend that arguably saw a couple of 3YOs separate themselves from the pack in Hallandale Beach, it is difficult to say similar about this past Saturday. Tampa Bay Downs and Santa Anita Park took center stage with the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and San Felipe (G2) both rewarding 50 points to the winner, but both underwhelmed. So, with a light week ahead before the three biggest ones in terms of Triple Crown preps, it is time for another week of “Prep School.”
Horse That Disappointed Most on Saturday: Brant
Unfortunately, the two Triple Crown preps from last weekend were more about disappointment than they were success. Sure, The Puma out finished Canaletto and Further Ado to break his maiden in the Tampa Bay Derby and Potente got by longshot Robusta late to earn his first stakes win at Santa Anita, but neither race impressed from a visual or data perspective. Further Ado’s lack of serious energy late despite a clean stalking trip and Powershift’s no show both stood out in Oldsmar, but it is nearly impossible to look past Brant when it comes to the biggest disappointment from the past weekend. Sure, plenty of horseplayers had questions about the $3M son of Gun Runner’s ability to get a route of ground, but he put it in a total clunker finishing fifth beaten nearly seven lengths at odds-on. It is likely trainer Bob Baffert opts to cut the Zedan Racing Stables colt back in distance and perhaps shoot for the Pat Day Mile (G2), but either way he was highly disappointing on Saturday afternoon.
Horse That Ran on Saturday Most Likely to Win a Triple Crown Race: None
Heading into last weekend, it was easy to make the case that horses like Canaletto and Further Ado were amongst the 3YOs likely to visit the winner’s circle in one of the three Triple Crown races this spring. As of Sunday morning, it was more difficult. Some racing fans will make the case that Canaletto’s effort in Florida was better than looks on paper given his ground loss and the way the track played earlier in the card, but I cannot get there. Sure, it is never ideal to be caught wide into the first turn in your first two-turn try, but the same was true for The Puma suggesting this is a race that actually favored those from off the pace and off the rail. This directly conflicts with the way the racing surface played earlier in the card, but reportedly there was a decent amount of rain that very likely changed the track. Either way it is hard for me to be convinced that two of the three top finishers fought what would have been a pretty decent bias had it been conducted just a few hours earlier. The top three are far from chopped liver, but are horses I will let beat me going a classic distance at the highest level in the coming months.
Horse With Most to Prove This Weekend: Incredibolt
The lone race rewarding points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard takes place at Colonial Downs on Saturday. The Virginia Derby drew a field of ten with runners from some of the biggest barns set to make the voyage to the Commonwealth in an attempt to earn a spot in the Derby starting gate. Some of the top contenders in this year’s Virginia Derby had high hopes coming into 2026, but disappointed in their last start. #7 Incredibolt tops that list. The Pin Oak Stud colt ended his 2YO campaign with a pair of impressive off-the-pace victories at Churchill Downs for trainer Riley Mott. He made his return in the Holy Bull (G3) where he went off at odds of 7-2, but failed to run a step. The son of Bolt d’Oro almost ran too poor to believe, so perhaps it was the racing surface or just not his day. Regardless, it is basically now or never for the $75,000 Keeneland September ’24 purchase that made such a positive impression in the Blue Grass State just a short time ago. A strong performance here and a lot about his run in Florida will be forgotten. Another dud and perhaps we see him move to the grass in the spring time.
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