It is Woodbine Mile Day in Toronto, Canada and that means an outstanding card north of the border. With six graded stakes events over a 12-race card and a pair of Hit & Split pick 5 opportunities available at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet, this card is an absolute must play on Saturday afternoon. Earn your share of 3 Million 1/ST Rewards Points if you're able to take down the promo sequences.
Here are my thoughts on the late Pick 5 that concludes with the Woodbine Mile:
Race 6: Ontario Matron (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 10 Sabatini; 11 Forever Dixie; 9 Solo Album
Backups: 2 Elysian Field
Forecast: The pace should be contentious in this 8.5-furlong affair over the all-weather, so I will lean on runners that hopefully can take advantage of a quick first-half mile.
As often is this case at Woodbine, trainer Mark Casse holds a strong hand. #9 Solo Album is a deserving morning line favorite and will be tough to beat if Frankie Dettori is able to avoid getting caught up in an early tussle. #11 Forever Dixie has earned 3 of 4 her career victories over this surface and should relish the likely race shape and #2 Elysian Field is far from hopeless moving back to her preferred surface. They all are worth inclusion, but my lukewarm top choice is #10 Sabatini who tried the grass unsuccessfully when we saw her last, but moves back to the all-weather and has plenty of upside still for trainer Josie Carroll. John Velazquez will be in the irons for the initial time.
Race 7: E.P. Taylor (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Moira (pictured above)
Backups: None
Forecast: #2 Moira is 6 for 15 in her storied career but is winless in two runs in the E.P. Taylor. That is likely to change on Saturday when the Kevin Attard trainee makes her third start of the form cycle after a head victory in the Beverly D (G2) on August 11. With #4 Full Count Felicia and #3 Fev Rover likely to set the pace in this ten-furlong affair over the grass, jockey Rafael Hernandez should be able to find a comfortable ground saving mid-pack spot in the early going. From there, I expect the $1.8M earner to show her class and get to the wire first.
Race 8:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 5 Ron’s Gizmo
Backups: 4 J P Hellish
Forecast: #4 J P Hellish and #5 Ron’s Gizmo exit a similar spot on August 23 when J P Hellish grinded away a half-length victory over this course. Both merit respect here, but in a horizontal setting it is difficult to overlook J P Hellish’s desire to win evidenced by the twelve career victories on his resume. That said, he has not won back-to-back races since 2019 at Delaware Park. On the other hand, Ron’s Gizmo is 0 for 4 in 2024, but should have the run of the race with all the speed signed on to his inside and outside. I like his chances to come from well off the pace to earn his seventh lifetime victory.
Race 9: Summer (G1)
Grade: C
Main Ticket: 6 Cairo Caper; 9 Al Qudra; 7 Will Reign; 10 New Century
Backups: None
Forecast: There is a plethora of early speed types signed up for this $500K event for 2YOs and two of the three morning line favorites have never competed in the States, making this one of the more difficult races on the Woodbine Mile Day card.
#9 Al Qudra is the 3-1-morning line choice. The No Nay Never colt comes in from the United Kingdom having won 2 of 5 career starts, but has never travelled further than a mile. Sure, the pedigree suggests he should adore the added ground, but what price is too short with questions still left to be answered? #10 New Century is the other colt making his first try in North America. The Qatar Racing colt has done little wrong thus far, but those races were against compact groups and not against the strongest competition. He is equally tough to trust. The problem is finding another runner you have full faith in.
#6 Cairo Caper relaxed nicely and finished decent to win the Soaring Free last month but I am not convinced he wants more ground. #7 Will Reign ran well on debut at Saratoga and was caught wide in his run in the Catch a Glimpse, but the addition of blinkers and the stretch out are wild cards. As you can tell, I lack a strong opinion in this one.
Race 10: Woodbine Mile (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Playmea Tune
Backups: 2 Naval Power
Forecast: Like several of the other races in the sequence, there should be an honest pace at the very least in this year’s Woodbine Mile (G1). This clearly bodes well for the even-money favorite #2 Naval Power who races in Canada for the first time for Charles Appleby and Godolphin. The 4YO gelding competed twice during the first half of 2024 in two Grade 1 events in Kentucky and ran second in both tries. Since then, he has been at Saratoga working steadily, so he should be ready to fire his best shot off the bench.
No doubt, Naval Power could prove tough to beat but this is a gambling game, so I will take a shot against the likely heavy chalk with #1 Playmea Tune. The Maclean’s Music gelding may be up against it at this level with just three sprints under his belt, but he has a lot of talent and more upside. I am hopeful despite a mixed bag pedigree that he relaxes early and takes to the added ground. If so, I expect him to outrun his 12-1 morning line price at the very least.
Good luck in Toronto!
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