Another Saturday of thoroughbred racing at beautiful Saratoga Race Course is upon us with this time the Alabama (G1) the headliner. The stakes event for 3YO fillies is led by odds-on favorite Counting Stars. The Mark Casse trainee heads into her first ten-furlong test with a chance of winning her third consecutive Grade 1 over the historic upstate New York racetrack. Here are my thoughts on all 12 races.
Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.
Race 1:
Grade: X
Use: 6 Modest Maclean
Forecast: The opener is a state-bred MSW event out of the Wilson chute where I have no desire trying to beat 8-5-ML favorite #6 Modest Maclean. The Linda Rice trainee was well-meant on debut earlier this month going off the even-money favorite in a seven-furlong race over this surface. Rice brings him back three weeks later after being run down in the final strides by his stablemate. Jose Ortiz is back aboard one of the likelier winners on the slate.
Race 2:
Grade: C+
Use: 7 Arkhipov; 4 Asbury Park
Forecast: Trainer Chad Brown appears to hold an extremely strong hand in this second-level allowance event over the Inner Turf. Brown enters ML favorite #4 Asbury Park and 3-1-second choice #7 Arkhipov. Asbury Park has not raced since a disappointing performance on Kentucky Derby in the Turf Classic (G1). He gets class relief here, but I prefer Arkhipov. The Munnings gelding was beaten to the jump by stablemate Right to Vote, but finished with solid energy to earn second in a similar spot last month. Flavien Prat sticks around to ride a 4YO that could be tough to hold off late.
Race 3:
Grade: C+
Use: 3 Got Tough; 1 Powerline
Forecast: There are certainly some well-bred first-time starters entered in this MSW event at 6.5-furlongs, but I will roll with the two colts with experience in #1 Powerline and #3 Got Tough. Powerline was bet down to 8-5 for his debut over this surface last month and lost little in defeat finishing second to a good looking first out winner for the Brad Cox barn. He is the clear one to beat, but the slow break and his rail draw make another short price tough to swallow. Got Tough was easily handled by Powerline in that July 18 race over this surface, but should move forward quite a bit with the addition of blinkers after losing some interest out there during the middle stages before re-rallying to finish third. Ideally, he will be sent aggressively out of the gates by new rider Ricardo Santana Jr.
Race 4:
Grade: C+
Use: 1 Americanexpression
Forecast: #1 Americanexpression is not likely to offer a lot of value taking on winners for the first time in this $40k non-winners of two event sprinting over the grass, but looks like the clear one to beat. The Lindy Farms filly ran third on debut over the Gulfstream Park all-weather before dropping in for $55k last out and winning despite being caught three-wide much of the way. She moves to the inside, which could present a challenge with a slow break, but showed more gate speed than a quick look on paper appears in her first start. Trainer Phil Antonacci uses the voided claim last month feels to find a soft spot for his trainee who retains the services of Ricardo Santana Jr.
Race 5:
Grade: B-
Use: 3 Madeline’s Agenda
Forecast: There does not appear to be an abundance of early speed signed on in this $55k maiden claimer at 1 1/16-miles over the Inner Turf, so I will hope class dropper #3 Madeline’s Agenda uses her inside draw and early speed to take advantage. The daughter of Known Agenda did not have things go well in her first start versus protected maidens during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival and did not finish much better in her second start, but I liked the fact she flashed a lot more speed from the gate. Now, she gets a rider upgrade to Manny Franco and a decrease in competition. With a good break, Manny should be able to find a prominent position early against a field that could be caught in a tough spot late if the tempo is moderate. 6-1 seems fair.
Race 6:
Grade: B-
Use: 11 Very Clever; 4 Key Colony Beach; 9 Above All Odds
Forecast: This MSW event for 2YO fillies at 6.5-furlongs looks like it could be a live one. Of those that have raced I prefer #4 Key Colony Beach. The $650k daughter of Omaha Beach gets blinkers after running a solid second to the well-bred Effusive over the sloppy going on July 18. A move forward could make her tough for a first-time starter to beat, but there do appear to be some with massive upside. Of them, #11 Very Clever is the one I like most on debut. The far outside draw can be tricky for a firster, but this gal is a half-sister to the extremely talented sprinter Matareya. She ships in from Churchill Downs and looks ready to roll for trainer Brad Cox. If she is 9-2 or higher, I can see diving in on the Win end.
Race 7:
Grade: B-
Use: 8 Sacrosanct
Forecast: I lack creativity in this $130k allowance at six-furlongs over the main track where 5-2-ML favorite #8 Sacrosanct looks like the right horse. The son of Honest Mischief makes his third start of the form cycle after a third-place effort to the talented Senior Officer on July 26. He gets a softer group for the level and should benefit from the slight half-furlong cutback. The NY-bred has won 6 of 11 career races and should get a great trip from his outside draw.
Race 8:
Grade: C+
Use: 5 Vernon Valley; 9 Maria Callas; 3 Arinata
Forecast: I will take a swing in this state-bred first-level allowance event at 5.5-furlongs over the grass with #5 Vernon Valley. The daughter of Vekoma makes her second start off the ten-month layoff after making a three-wide middle move in a race many of her rivals exit on July 25 before tiring in the lane. I can forgive Vernon Valley getting tired that day not only because she was coming off a long break for a new barn, but also because they went at it upfront causing the race to fall apart late. Ideally, she would have hung around better despite the premature move, but that would have hurt her price on Saturday. Hopefully, she can win, but things should work out okay if we can get her into the number in a wide-open start to the late Pick 5.
Race 9:
Grade: B-
Use: 3 Cocktailsnkringle; 9 Playa Del Mar; 10 C McGriff
Forecast: Regally-bred #5 Stimulate is likely to take plenty of support in his first start against winners for Bill Mott, but I do not trust the Tapit colt out of star mare Elate. The Wilson chute has not been overly kind to horses that start slow and he did not beat all that much in his win over the slop last month.
I like a pair of long shots to potentially get in the mix, including top pick #3 Cocktailsnkringle. Owner/trainer Steven Schauer won two races on Wednesday and has a shot with this son of Preservationist who makes his first start since a head victory against starter foes at Aqueduct. He should be forward after running second over this unique configuration in June. #10 C McGriff is also in with a chance. The outside draw is not ideal, but he cuts back from a true two-turn race at Churchill Downs in mid-June. Robby Medina lost a tough one last week and is a better conditioner than some of his numbers might suggest.
Race 10: Ballston Spa (G2)
Grade: B-
Use: 4 Play With Fire/6 Segesta; 5 And One More Time
Forecast: Trainer Chad Brown has won this 1 1/16-mile race over the Inner Turf for fillies and mares a record eight times. Brown sends out three this year, including 7-5-ML favorite #6 Segesta. The Juddmonte homebred is the class of the field exiting five consecutive Grade 1 events, but is far from unbeatable. I will try to out finish her with stablemate #4 Play With Fire. The daughter of Oscar Performance is not as accomplished as some of her main rivals, but makes her second start off the layoff after a neck defeat on July 9. I will be happy to build my wagers around her if she is anything close to the listed 15-1-ML offering.
Race 11: Alabama (G1)
Grade: X
Use: 6 Counting Stars
Forecast: #6 Counting Stars went into the Kentucky Oaks (G1) as one of several that were in the mix for the top of this year’s 3YO filly crop, but she heads into the Alabama (G1) with a chance to put herself well above the class. She ran a good third in the Oaks before huge runs in the Acorn (G1) and Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). Regression is always a possibility for a young filly after big races like she has run, but certainly shows no reason on paper she will not handle this compact group of six. She is not only the classiest and fastest horse, but is likely to have a pace advantage. I have no desire in trying to beat the daughter of Honor A.P.
Race 12:
Grade: B-
Use: 3 Home Wrecker; 1 Stand the Rain/6 Mary Lois; 4 Fango Creek
Forecast: The logicals make sense to be there in this 1 3/16-mile MSW event for the ladies to close the card, but I like a price most. #3 Home Wrecker took a tough beat missing by a length when arguably best during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. In her next start on the Fourth of July, she never got comfortable under jockey Joel Rosario. Trainer Danny Gargan stretches her out past 8.5-furlongs for the first time and puts Kendrick Carmouche back in the saddle. I expect this to lead to a voyage either on the lead or sitting just off the pace of #2 Prime Connection. Either way, she should run well if able to handle the added ground.
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