The stars as always will be out on America’s biggest day of thoroughbred racing, which as a fan is always awesome. It also can present opportunities at the windows with big name horses or runners for high profile connections taking a bit more money than perhaps they should. Let’s take a look at a few horses listed as the morning line choice that could be vulnerable on Derby Day.
Race 2: #6 Scylla (6-5 morning line)
The regally-bred daughter of Tapit was awesome on debut at Keeneland a little less than thirteen months ago coming from off the pace to beat a legitimate filly in Zeitlos. The full-sister to 2.2-million-dollar earner, Tacitus, won right back at the one-turn mile distance here at Churchill last June, but as often as the case with big number debut winners, her speed figures/performance ratings declined. We also did not see her again until this March. Clearly something went wrong after getting an already slightly late start to the races. When she made it back to the afternoons, she lost at 2-5 despite running a big figure in Florida and then failed again as the chalk in the Doubledogdare (G3) in Lexington on April 19th.
Understandably, the public will see a class drop out of graded stakes company and a filly that has run the fastest races and flock to that runner, but I have concerns. She has burnt a ton of money already in 2024 and clearly had some sort of issues going to the sidelines for over nine months after just two tries. She can win, but it will be without me at a likely short price. She makes for an intriguing fade in early horizontal wagers that have a number of chalks that look somewhat beatable.
Race 4: Knicks Go Overnight Stakes: #6 Best Actor (5-2 ML)
This 5YO son of Flatter enters the first stakes race on Derby Day off of a pair of defeats against graded stakes foes in New Orleans for trainer Brad Cox. Prior to those losses though, he was an impressive 5 for 9, including a perfect 2 for 2 record over the Churchill Downs main track. His fastest efforts have come when he is loose on the lead going the one-turn 8-furlong configurations in Louisville and Aqueduct, but it is unlikely Flavien Prat has him on an uncontested lead with a lot of other early zip signed on in this year’s Knicks Go.
The 5-2-morning line favorite is capable of getting to the wire first with the decrease in competition and the return to Louisville, but he is very difficult to trust. He has had really good trips and been unable to seal the deal and perhaps we have already seen the best he has to offer. I look forward to fading him in the start of a middle Pick 4 that kicks off here, as well as the All Dirt Pick 5 that concludes with the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby.
Race 10: Churchill Downs Stakes (Grade 1): #6 Zozos (3-1 ML) {pictured above}
Brad Cox appears poised to have yet another big Derby weekend, but does send out another vulnerable favorite in this 7-furlong dash for a million bucks over the main track. Zozos won the Knicks Go on Derby Day a year ago besting Kupuna by less than a length and won 2 of 4 following that early May stakes score, but disappointed big time in his trip out west for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He simply was terrible at Santa Anita. The son of Munnings has been on the sidelines since.
The fact Cox brings the Barry and Joni Butzow homebred back in a Grade 1 tells me he must be training forwardly, but maybe the options were somewhat limited and the field for this year’s Churchill Downs far from intimidating. That said there are horses coming into this race in the best form of their career with some recency that appear poised for a huge performance. #3 Bo Cruz makes a good deal of sense as does #4 Mr. Wireless who cutback to one-turn at Fair Grounds and was awesome for trainer Bret Calhoun. Let’s take a shot against the morning line choice to kick off the final Pick 5 on Derby Day 2024.
Best of luck on what should be an incredible day of racing in the Blue Grass!
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