We made it! Kentucky Derby Day is upon us and I am sure everyone is excited as I am. I will get right to the card, but just a reminder about the $20,000 Exacta-Thon promotion we are running on Friday and Saturday. 10k is up for grabs both days with the goal of connecting on the most $2-exactas as possible. Each day, those who hit 6 will equally split $8,000 with the customer(s) who hit the most taking down the other $2,000. Register and have yourself a day!
Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.
Race 1:
Grade: C+
Use: 11 Powershift; 8 Bourbon Dream/3 Silent Way
Forecast: The Derby Day card gets started with a two-turn MSW event over the main track where I am logical other than being against #9 Winston Ave. Bob Baffert runners are likely to get bet on the big day and this colt has underwhelmed through 4 starts out west. #11 Powershift is the likeliest winner, but a tough read after the poor effort in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3).
Race 2:
Grade: B+
Use: 8 Taptastic
Forecast: The second is another 1 1/16-miles affair, but for first-level allowance foes where it appears #8 Taptastic should be tough to beat. The Tapit colt showed professionalism winning at two-turns with an inside trip to kick off his career. Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen thought enough of the effort to give him a shot 20 days later in the Arkansas Derby and was rewarded with a solid third-place run. He gets a rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz, drops in class, and is one of my top plays on the day.
Race 3:
Grade: B-
Use: 5 John Hancock; 6 Who Dey; 10 Vibe
Forecast: I will try to beat 3-1-ML favorite #12 Praetor in this second-level allowance at one-mile over the main track. The Chad Brown runner has posted solid efforts in all six career starts, but comes in off of 3 consecutive losses at 2-1 or lower. There are three runners I like equally that have the upside to beat the chalk. #5 John Hancock has not been seen since last year’s Louisiana Derby (G2), but showed strong talent as a 3YO. He is a tough read, but has serious upside still. #6 Who Dey is probably the most trustworthy of the bunch, but is just 1 for 5 over this oval. #10 Vibe should get a great trip and is more than capable if his Florida form transfers to Louisville.
Race 4: Derby City Distaff (G1)
Grade: C+
Use: 6 R Disaster/4 Ways and Means; 5 Splendora; 1 Usha
Forecast: This year’s Derby City Distaff (G1) is a bit tough for me to get excited about wagering on because the two favorites #4 Ways and Means and #5 Splendora beat this field with their best. That said, I am not sold we see that from either of them, so I will take a small swing here with #6 R Disaster. If the two chalks get beat, it is likely because the speed forgets to stop. This Florida-bred mare tired in the lane last out in the Madison (G1), but the top two ran huge in there. The price should be worth it to take a little shot.
Race 5: Turf Sprint (G2)
Grade: B
Use: 10 Joe Shiesty; 9 Litigation
Forecast: #3 My Boy Prince was made the 5-2-ML favorite off his win in the Shakertown (G2), but the son of Cairo Prince had a dream run in early April. He may get the trip again, but I prefer two runners drawn to the outside. #9 Litigation finished fourth to Cairo Prince last out, but did not have the trip the winner did. Trainer Brian Lynch turns to Irad Ortiz. It is hard to overstate the upgrade. I did land on #10 Joe Shiesty in the end though, in large part because of price. The Air Force Blue gelding tried harder than looks on paper last out when he finished fifth in the aforementioned Shakertown. He easily disposed of the other speed and lost by less than two lengths in the end. I expect him to have things his way on the front end in his third start of the form cycle.
Race 6: Knicks Go
Grade: B-
Use: 4 Be You
Forecast: I like #4 Be You in this one-mile race over the main track for restricted company. The son of Curlin won nicely two-back and then put forth a solid third when racing against the flow in early April in the Carter (G2). The class relief and likely race shape should benefit the Repole Stable runner.
Race 7: Distaff Turf Mile (G2)
Grade: B-
Use: 4 Temptable; 3 Portfolio Duration
Forecast: I will take on 5-2-ML favorite in this Grade 2 at over the grass. The American Pharoah mare won both of her first two starts for trainer Brendan Walsh this winter in Florida. Her tactical speed is a weapon that allows her to work out favorable trips, but they were ideal at Gulfstream Park. I prefer the upside of both #3 Portfolio Duration and #4 Temptable. Temptable was outrun in her lone start in the States last fall, but fits well with these. At 8-1, I made her my top choice.
Race 8: Pat Day Mile (G2)
Grade: C+
Use: 7 Crown the Buckeye; 1 Englishman; 6 Crude Velocity
Forecast: #1 Englishman and #6 Crude Velocity appear to be serious 3YO sprinters. Both come into this $750k event 2 for 2. One of them is likely to win this, but they may not get ideal trips in a race that should see an honest pace. #1 Englishman will win if he breaks well from his rail draw and makes an easy lead, but that is a big if. #6 Crude Velocity has a huge chance if the pace is honest and Florent Geroux is able to avoid traffic and get in the clear when they turn for home. The problem is their price may not account for those legitimate concerns, so I semi-reluctantly will side against both with #7 Crown the Buckeye. The Ohio-bred battled to the wire with Iron Honor in the Gotham, attracts Flavien Prat for the first time, and could get a perfect stalking trip. We will see if he is up to the challenge.
Race 9: American Turf (G1)
Grade: B+
Use: 4 Stark Contrast/12 Remember Mamba; 2 Let’s Be Frank; 10 Vasy
Forecast: #4 Stark Contrast looks like a potential single in horizontals in this year’s American Turf (G1). The Amerman Racing Stables colt finished a strong second to Fulleffort in the Jeff Ruby (G3) and showed a very strong turn of foot over the grass two-back in the Eddie Logan. He gets one of the best in the game onboard and looks tough. Take a peek at #2 Let’s Be Frank if you are playing trifectas or supers. His effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) is a complete toss due to his traffic issues and his loss last time was to a colt loose on the lead at Santa Anita. He is likely to be a massive price.
Race 10: Churchill Downs (G1)
Grade: B-
Use: 2 Cornucopian/5 Disruptor; 1 Disco Time; 7 Imagination
Forecast: #6 Knightsbridge comes in with the fastest races, but he has had things easy in his last three wins at Gulfstream Park compared to what he encounters today. I am willing to tip my cap to him if he handles this task at his likely price. #2 Cornucopian has unlimited talent. The question is what kind of trip will he work out along the inside. With a clean one, I like his chances. If not, there are a few others I will include in hopes of besting favorite.
Race 11: Turf Classic (G1)
Grade: C+
Use: 6 Rhetorical; 3 Asbury Park
Forecast: 5-2-ML favorite #6 Rhetorical has never travelled the 9-furlong distance he encounters in the Turf Classic, so he has questions to answer at a relatively short price. That said, there is not a lot of speed in here, which should have him on the lead or in a perfect stalking spot off a moderate early pace. I like his chances, but not enough to rush to the windows to wager on the Will Walden trainee. #3 Asbury Park takes on older runners for the first and does so off the bench, but trainer Chad Brown must love the way he is training to send him right to the wolves. He can finish at the distance, draws favorably, and gets Prat. He has to overcome a lot, but has a high ceiling.
Race 12: Kentucky Derby (G1)
Grade: B+
Use: 12 Chief Wallabee; 18 Further Ado/6 Commandment/15 Emerging Market; 8 So Happy/10 Wonder Dean; 7 Danon Bourbon; 22 Ocelli
Forecast: I did a lot of Derby focused content, so I am hopeful you have checked out the “1/ST Call Podcast” with Jeremy Plonk, “Horse Cents” with Bailey Armour, and my spaces recorded on Wednesday with Pete Denk. For those looking to get my last thoughts for the entire day, check out my 7:30 AM spaces on X (twitter) with Doug Nachman. I can’t wait!
Race 13:
Grade: B-
Use: 8 Gilded Bandit; 11 Noble Affair/1 Small Town
Forecast: I will go two-deep in late horizontals against 5-2-ML favorite #10 Buetane in this first-level allowance over the main track. Bob Baffert cuts the colt back in distance after a trio of underwhelming runs on the Derby Trail. #8 Gilded Bandit beats these if he works out a trip from off-the-pace. He had to work to get by a Brad Cox runner that ran fast and hard to the wire in his maiden score. He can finish. If not, #11 Noble Affair has the edge. He lost a tough one last out by a neck, but should be set for his best second off the bench.
Race 14:
Grade: B-
Use: 3 Interrogator/7 Act of Parliament; 10 Chianti Town
Forecast: I will hope to close the Derby card down with first-time starter #3 Interrogator. The Omaha Beach colt commanded $500k at the Keeneland Sept ’24 sale and has shown ability in the morning. Plus, it is probably a positive if Steve Asmussen had him spar with Hall of Fame in his final breeze before his debut. I expect a big run.
.svg){kind=logo}
