For those looking for something to do in the evening over the next few months, the Turfway Park Holiday Meet is officially upon us starting Wednesday evening. The product is challenging, but rewards those that put in the work as much as any track I handicap regularly.
The 9-race opening night card kicks off at 5:55 PM eastern and amongst the solid wagering opportunities in Florence, KY is the Pick 4, which has a takeout rate of 14%. For those keeping score at home, this is quite lower than the rest of the year in the Blue Grass. With that in mind, let’s dive into the late sequence on opening night.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 6:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 O’Babe
Backups: 3 Docs Seven; 8 Abitibi
Forecast: There is a serious lack of early speed in this open $16k claimer for fillies and mares, which benefits 3-1-second choice #5 O’Babe most. The Minnesota-bred has been given a freshening after competing six times at Canterbury Park this summer, including a dominant 10-length score when we saw her last on September 21. The 5YO mare is not a need the lead type, but certainly is more than capable of going to the front and never looking back. Hopefully that is the case to kick off the first late Pick 4 of the meet.
#3 Docs Seven is just 1 for 9 over this surface, but has some tactical speed and attracts Luan Machado. I prefer her underneath, but at 10-1 I will include as a backup. #8 Abitibi has shown more of an affinity for the Turfway Park all-weather in her career and makes a ton of sense on paper, but may be compromised by the lack of pace. If they happen to go at it early though, she is definitely the likeliest to get to the wire first.
Race 7:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2 Oscargot; 4 Hope Joe’s Right
Backups: None
Forecast: A MSW event at a ten-furlongs is up next where I like #2 Oscargot most. The Conor Murphy trainee has never competed over an all-weather surface, but has been at his best thus far over the lawn. Last out he was part of a mad scramble late in a 1 1/8-mile turf affair at Churchill Downs where I thought he fought on pretty well to finish third at nearly 10-1 odds. He should be ready for a career best in his third start off over a year layoff and draws favorably to the inside.
#4 Hope Joe’s Right is intriguing as well. The Klimt gelding is another runner that has never raced over the synthetic, but it is noteworthy that trainer Joe Sharp owns this horse and could easily put him back in for a tag. Instead, he chooses to protect the 3YO and give him a shot at the 1 1/4-miles. I will give him one shot in Florence.
Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Forgotten Peace
Backups: None
Forecast: The last time #2 Forgotten Peace was at Turfway Park things did not go so well. The daughter of Jersey Town saved ground early as the 2-1-second choice in a similar spot, but was empty when the real running started. Trainer Tim Girten gave the 8YO mare time after the disappointing run last November and she has been nearly perfect since. It would normally be fair to question if maybe she was unable to translate her form at Presque Isle to Turfway Park, but she ran very well in her only other start over this course in December ’22. The Oklahoma-bred (like myself) comes into this spot in great form, has won 15 of 36 in her career, and should handle these relatively easily with a clean voyage under Abel Cedillo.
Race 9:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2 Beautiful Summer; 3 Donate Life; 4 Wildwood Adios; 5 Harmonica; 7 Italian Ivy; 9 Ain’t No Other
Backups: None
Forecast: I am not in love with the favorites in the finale where #6 Trotter is listed as the 9-5-morning line choice. The Cross Traffic filly makes her first start off the claim for trainer Larry Rivelli after a fourth-place effort over the sloppy going at Churchill Downs on Halloween. Rivelli is 5 for 17 over the last year with runners making their first start off the claim, so he is obviously highly capable, but this seems like an odd spot to choose five weeks after spending $30k for her in Louisville. Sure, the purses here are outstanding, but just one published work since seems less than ideal. I like second choice #8 Camp Akeela less. The Laoban filly is just 1 for 12 and has been a disappointment for trainer Tom Amoss and one of his top owners, Joel Politi. The start over the all-weather at this price tag seems to be nothing more than a dart throw. I will toss them both, spread fairly deep, and hope to catch a big one to close out the evening.
Good luck!
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