It may feel like the holiday season is nearing an end, but not so fast. Turfway Park has a Saturday evening gift for horseplayers of nearly $245K in carryover money for a mandatory payout of the Single 6. The sequence begins in Race 4 (7:25PM eastern) where over $1M is expected and as always in Florence offers up full fields throughout. Let’s dive in.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 4:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 9 Real Fast; 7 Call Protection; 6 Universal Sound
Backups: 10 Overstatement; 4 Kentucky Go Go
Forecast: The sequence kicks off with a first-level allowance event at one-mile and an honest pace appears extremely likely given the number of speed types signed on. Therefore, I will look to runners that can hopefully settle early and finish late. Of the options, I like #9 Real Fast most. The Brownwood Farm homebred has been given two months since missing by a neck in a frantic finish over the Horseshoe Indianapolis sod. The Kitten’s Joy colt was probably best that day, but jockey Evin Roman had to wait for room at the top of the lane and when he found it, it was too late. With a cleaner trip, he has a big shot to run this group down in the final strides.
I will also include #6 Universal Sound stretching back out to two-turns in his second start off the bench for Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, as well as #7 Call Protection, who gets some serious class relief in his second start off the claim for Mike Maker. A few others are worthy of backups, particularly if you have a strong opinion or two later on.
Race 5:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Silver Ore; 10 Bermuda Triangle; 5 Sharp Swinger; 1 Counter Elite; 12 Cool Andy; 11 Grand Scan
Backups: None
Forecast: There is no doubt the second leg of the sequence goes through #9 Sea Vista. The 6-5-morning line favorite is likely to be a single on lots of tickets after a pair of runner-up efforts over the main tracks at Saratoga and Churchill Downs for trainer Brad Cox. The Street Sense colt adds the blinkers for the first time after failing as the even-money choice on November 23. He brings the fastest races into this MSW event at 6.5-furlongs, but I do not trust him. Not only has he been beaten out of the gate and outsprinted early in both starts to date, but this is a full-brother to Spa City and half-brother to Nash. The decision to spend the last couple of months at Turfway raises additional questions.
I will use several in hopes of taking down the big chalk, including #4 Silver Ore. The Frosted colt debuts for trainer Doug Cowans. Cowans has been chilly of late, but has always proven highly capable with debut runners. He sends this half-brother to Olazabal to the races after a steady series of drills leading up to his first try. Silver Ore’s big bro had a ton of early speed when he was at his best and earned three of his four career victories over this surface. At 12-1, this colt is a must include.
Race 6:
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 11 Oscargot
Backups: None
Forecast: I know #11 Oscargot takes a big step up in class into this first-level allowance event at ten-furlongs, but I love his chances nonetheless. The Oscar Performance gelding tried the all-weather at Turfway Park for the initial time on opening night and really took to the surface. The Conor Murphy trainee did not get a big setup in his off the pace win and was still full of run late under Luan Machado. He meets tougher, but his affinity for the distance and surface should play extremely well against this group. I will live and die with the 4YO gelding at his 6-1-morning line offering.
Race 7:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 10 Banks; 6 California Burrito; 5 Austin Cruise; 13 Baytown Baracus
Backups: None
Forecast: I wish I was more creative in this first-level allowance event for 2YOs at two-turns, but I could not separate the logicals and struggled to make a strong case for price options. #6 California Burrito is the 3-1-morning line choice after being turned away at 2-1 in his first effort going a route of ground. He has to answer surface and distance questions, but has taken on better competition for the most part. #5 Austin Cruise stretches out for the first time after a pair of sprints to kick off his career. The Steve Asmussen trainee gets off the inside for the initial time and very well could appreciate the added ground. #10 Banks needs to move forward in his first start against winners, but did win over this course and distance earlier this month. If #13 Baytown Baracus draws in off the AE list, I will include him as well. He ran a big race against the flow despite finishing off the board in his first local try and is all but certain to get ignored at the windows.
Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 9 Bourbon Day; 3 Tatanka
Backups: 5 Bakwena; 11 Pikington
Forecast: Oddsmaker Mike Battaglia understandably made #9 Bourbon Day the 3-1-morning line choice in this second-level allowance at 1 1/4 -miles. The Brad Cox trainee has never competed over an all-weather surface, but has won 4 of 11 over the lawn and projects to get a favorable stalking voyage under veteran Fernando De La Cruz. He is the one to beat, but hard to fully trust. I will also include #3 Tatanka, who ran off at Kentucky Downs in his first start off the claim for Brittany Vanden Berg. Vanden Berg has given the 5YO gelding time and finds a spot with not much other speed signed on. If he can relax this time on the backstretch, he is capable of springing the upset.
In terms of backups, I will include #5 Bakwena, who is just 2 for 24, but one of those wins came over this surface and distance and #11 Pikington who returns quickly for Mike Maker after a well-beaten second against lesser earlier this month.
Race 9:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 3 Rotary Dial; 10 Rivzonaroll
Backups: 1 Buzzer; 8 Neoking
Forecast: #10 Rivzonaroll will make it two in a row if he runs back to his winning performance on December 7. The son of Good Samaritan was bet hard and won a race in wire-to-wire fashion that appeared to be loaded with early speed. The Larry Rivelli ran huge that day, but I am a bit concerned he will regress three weeks after his fastest performance of the year. The same is true of #9 Dragon Drew, who followed Rivzonaroll around the racetrack that day and also posted one of his best races of the campaign. Of the two , I much prefer Rivzonaroll. He is still at the top of his game while Dragon Drew has likely seen better days.
In addition to Rivzonaroll I will use #3 Rotary Dial on my main ticket. The Dialed In gelding finished fifth in the common race earlier this month at 12-1 and did so without an honest pace to chase. If the pace is more contentious in this one, he could run them down late at a big price.
As backups I will include #1 Buzzer, who ran too poor to believe when I liked him last out and #8 Neoking who gets some serious class relief for trainer Michelle Elliott.
.svg){kind=logo}
