It is a light week on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with Turfway Park taking center stage. The John Battaglia Memorial was made a points race in 2021 and while its winners have yet to make an impression in Triple Crown races, 2022 fourth-place finisher Rich Strike went on to shock the world on the first Saturday in May.
It remains to be seen whether this year’s group can produce a contender in 2026, but it is the race that will play largest in this week’s 1/ST BET and Xpressbet promotions. The featured event is not only part of our “Triple Crown Prep Races Money Back Special” promo, but the late Pick 4 is this week’s sequence in our ongoing 2-Million Point Saturday Hit & Split. As always, just remember to register for both if you have yet to do so. Here is how I plan to approach the late Pick 4 that kicks off at 8:55 eastern.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 7:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 Princess Julia
Backups: 5 Late Spring Night
Forecast: I landed on the chalk on top in this MSW for 3YO fillies at 5.5-furlongs where #1 Princess Julie appears the clear one to beat. The daughter of Caravaggio has progressed in each of her first three starts for trainer Eric Foster, including a runner-up effort at nearly 25-1 on February 5. She meets a modest group of protected non-winners and should be able to use the inside draw to her advantage. I will throw in long shot #5 Late Spring Night as a backup. The Optimizer filly did little running after breaking slowly from her inside draw on debut. I can forgive the effort given her likely value in the sequence, especially since it has been a good meet for trainer Kevin Fletcher.
Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Lorelei Lee; 7 L’clair; 9 Lotta Alpha
Backups: None
Forecast: The pace should be contentious at the very least in this first-level allowance for 3YO fillies, which should make things difficult for 7-2-second choice #3 Gracie’s Delight. Theoretically, 5-2-morning line favorite #2 Cadenza should get a great pocket trip in her first start of the year for Brad Cox, but might need the race given the gap in her public works from January 2 to February 6. I will try to beat them both. #6 Lorelei Lee is the one I like most, but the public will agree. The Mike Maker trainee won nicely on debut with a favorable flow and has put forth a pair of solid local drills since. I also give #9 Lotta Alpha a shot to win right back and a long shot look to #7 L’clair. The Beau Liam filly draws outside the likely speeds in her first start over this course. She is in with a serious chance at a juicy price if she takes to the surface.
Race 9: John Battaglia Memorial
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Great White; 4 Kilo Tango
Backups: 10 Aces Honor
Forecast: I will also toss the favorites in the aforementioned feature event at 1 1/16-miles and instead hope to gain separation in the sequence. #8 Great White intrigues me most. Trainer John Ennis rarely wins with first-time starters, yet this son of Volatile overcame a poor start to win going away on debut over this course. He tried two-turns in his next start in the Leonatus and failed to hit the board, but again had issues at the break and chased gate-to-wire winner #1 Street Beast throughout. Great White had plenty left to give after the wire and has a look at a big price if he is able to fix those issues at the break. I will use my Money Back wager on him, but also include #4 Kilo Tango. The “other” Cox came home nicely to get the job done on January 3 and is one of those that would benefit most from a lively early tempo.
Race 10:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4 Pack a Lunch; 10 Scoville
Backups: None
Forecast: I lack creativity in this $7500 maiden claimer to close the card where one of the two favorites is likely to cross the wire first. #4 Pack a Lunch takes a big drop in class for Doug Cowans after disappointing in a $30k event on December 12. He makes the most sense, but #10 Scoville could sneak away. The Get Stormy gelding has had his chances, but his speed eventually will lead him to the winner’s circle for the first time.
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