The Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard action continues on Saturday afternoon with a pair of Triple Crown preps that award 50 points to the winners. Both The Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and San Felipe (G2) mark the return of big name 2YOs that are set to make their 3YO debut. Further Ado has not competed in the afternoons since his victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), while Brant races for the first time since his third-place effort to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Saturday also marks another week of 1/ST Bet and Xpressbet’s “Triple Crown Prep Races Money-Back Special” promotion. Much like our Money Back special offers in the past, register for the promo, and then get up to $10 back on your first Win bet if your horse finishes second or third. Here is how I will approach them.
Tampa Bay Derby, 5:35 pm ET:
The field came up strong for this year’s main event in Oldsmar, Florida. The 1/16-mile race drew a field of 9 led by the aforementioned #6 Further Ado. The Spendthrift Farm colt is the one to beat based on his two big efforts in Kentucky last fall after stretching out to two-turns for trainer Brad Cox. The question is whether he is the one to bet, especially with the insurance of the Money Back offer. My answer is no. He regressed as expected in Louisville after the huge performance at Keeneland and has not been seen since. This was the plan for the last several weeks at least, so that is a good thing, but he still has questions to answer since we have not seen him in over three months. I will try the maiden #5 Powershift. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won this race a record six times and I was impressed with this colt’s ability to relax in the pocket going a route of ground on debut. It was as if he had been doing it forever before angling out to avoid getting caught behind tiring long shots. The son of Constitution was beaten three-quarters of a length that day by Emerging Market, but it was over thirteen lengths back to third. Johnny V comes in off an upset win in the Rebel and should be able to work out another favorable inside trip on this Repole Stable runner.
Play: Powershift
San Felipe, 6:41 pm ET:
Similar to the Tampa Bay Derby, the question in this 8.5-furlong test over the main track is not whether #4 Brant is the likeliest winner. The $3M OBS March 2025 purchase is no doubt the one to beat in his first start since last Halloween, but is he the one to bet? Once again, my answer is no. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile has not come back strong thus far and this is another runner that not only has not competed in over four months, but has yet to win going two-turns. There is clearly a significant chance that the son of Gun Runner gets to the front, never looks back, and cements himself as a top contender for the first Saturday in May, but this is a gambling game so I will take a swing with #3 Secured Freedom. The Tim Yakteen trainee is unlikely to win a Triple Crown race, but ran much better than looks in his first route try last month. The Virginia-bred did not break great, was caught three-wide into the first turn, and remained wide throughout. I thought he showed a lot of toughness to continue to fight to the wire despite the less-than-ideal voyage. He draws to the inside, so hopefully jockey Kazuski Kimura can navigate a far cleaner trip on Saturday. I would be surprised if he does not run his race.
Play: #3 Secured Freedom (8-1 ML)
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