The 150th running of the Kentucky Derby is just over two weeks away, but it is the Preakness Stakes that will be on horseplayers’ minds this weekend. Two qualifiers for the second leg of the Triple Crown take place on Saturday with another berth on the line in Sunday’s Illinois Derby.
Laurel Park: Federico Tesio // Saturday
This year’s local prep for the Preakness drew a field of eleven and should see a battle on the front end. The Maryland-bred #1 Speedyness has won half his starts, including a victory versus open company stakes foes two-back in the Miracle Wood. He is all but certain to go, as is Florida based #5 Classic Joke. The son of Practical Joke has shown serious early zip in sprints and stretches out for the initial time.
#7 Lat Long and #11 Copper Tax are the ones on paper likeliest to take advantage of a lively early pace, but will take too much money for me. #9 Carole Rapido is bred to be a star being by Curlin and out of 2016 Kentucky Oaks winner, Cathryn Sophia, but will probably get over bet off of pedigree and connections despite being simply too slow thus far.
#10 Inveigled is in danger of being caught wide into the first turn given his post and running style and failed to finish the deal despite a perfect trip last out in the Private Terms, but still has a big shot to cross the wire first nonetheless. The Jane Cibelli trainee appears to be on the improve and has shown an affinity for this surface. At anything higher than 4-1 he makes sense on the Win end.
Oaklawn Park: Bath House Row Stakes // Saturday
#2 Maximus Mischief should make the lead in this 9-furlong affair. The winner of the March 28th allowance event that included half of the Bath House Row field is drawn well, but is likely to take heat from #4 Informed Patriot. The Hard Spun colt was beaten to the punch last out against better in the Arkansas Derby (G1), but I am anticipating an aggressive ride out of the gate by Ricardo Santana, Jr. His stablemate #3 Imperial Gun is amongst those that would benefit most from a quick tempo.
Another runner that could benefit from a contentious first half mile is #6 Gould’s Gold. The Kenny McPeek trainee is lightly raced and just 1 for 3, but has done little wrong thus far. His debut was a classic McPeek learning experience followed by an impossible task when off slow and in tight early in a race that was essentially a merry-go-round with the two speeds running 1-2 all the way around the turf course. The son of Goldencents was given the winter off and took a huge step forward both mentally and by the numbers in his maiden breaking performance off the bench at one-turn in late March. He should relish getting back out to a route of ground and provides solid value on the Win end at anything 5-1 or higher. He also makes for a solid vertical exotics key, as well as a contrarian horizontal single.
Hawthorne: Illinois Derby // Sunday
Not only does the Sunday headliner at Hawthorne offer a berth into the 2024 Preakness Stakes, but it also features the return of the “Exacta-Thon” Promotion. With a share of $25,000 on the line if able to connect on six exactas throughout the afternoon in Chicago, the $200,000 event presented by 1/ST BET is a must play.
#4 Woodcourt is the lone runner in the compact field of six that has more than two wins. He has had excuses in his last two off the board efforts and is a deserving 5-2-morning line favorite. My only concern with him on the drop is the mile and an eighth. More than eight furlongs may be pushing his stamina making a short price unappealing. I find it even tougher to endorse #1 Real Men Violin at his expected price. He certainly has kept good company, but his lone win is at one-turn in the slop nearly six months ago and his lack of speed makes him race shape dependent.
The obvious pivot with holes to poke in the favorites is to a bigger price, but they lack appeal as well. #2 Patriot Spirit has not taken a step forward as a 3YO and is unlikely to make a clear lead on the stretch out with the presence of #6 Ravin’s Town. The Larry Rivelli charge is faced with a tall task stretching out from 5.5 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles in just his second start since last July and third overall. #5 Le Gris could get the right trip, but has yet to do anything close to his best running on the dirt and #3 Raquel appears overmatch.
From an “Exacta-Thon” perspective, Woodcourt should at least be good enough to hang around for second despite the distance concerns. Keying him with Real Men Violin and Le Gris is not a bet I would make normally, but will be my approach to hopefully nailing the last of my six winning exactas and collecting my share of the 25K.
Good luck this weekend!
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