After a trio of 20 points to the winner races on the road to the Kentucky Derby last Saturday, the scene shifts to the Gulf Coast of Florida where Tampa Bay Downs has a strong 12-race card headlined by the $250,000 Sam F. Davis. To make a good day even better, 1/ST BET and Xpressbet not only have the Triple Crown Prep $10 Money Back Special for the big race win bets, but also a 2 million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split in the late Pick 4!
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 9: Suncoast
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Her Laugh (pictured)
Backups: None
Forecast: #6 La Cara is the class of the field. The Street Sense filly makes her first start since a mid-pack finish to Immersive in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). I am not holding it against La Cara that she is spotted in this race instead of a more prestigious return since trainer Mark Casse also brought Wonder Wheel back in the Suncoast in 2023. That said, this year’s Juvenile Fillies was weak, and she meets a runner who not only should get the jump on her, but very well could be better.
#4 Her Laugh shocked them in Louisville winning by a head at 29-1 in mid-November and then controlled a moderate early tempo in her first start going a route against winners in the $100,00 Untapable. She pranced home to the easiest of wins. The daughter of Practical Joke may struggle to make an easy lead in her first start in Florida given the presence of #8 Cloe, but she may not need the lead to be at her best. Her talent is obvious and her trainer Whit Beckman is 3 for 7 over the last 10 days. Irad Ortiz Jr. jumping aboard does not hurt.
Race 10:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 9 Portfolio Duration
Backups: 7 Lying by Omission
Forecast: Trainer Chad Brown holds a strong hand in this MSW event for 3YO fillies at 1 1/16-mile over the sod. #7 Lying by Omission gets Lasix and Irad Ortiz Jr. after being out finished by a Graham Motion trainee on December 28. Losing as the 4-5-favorite without much of an excuse makes her tough to fully trust, but she is an obvious major player.
I prefer her stablemate #9 Portfolio Duration. The Klaravich Stables runner ships into Tampa Bay Downs after a long series of drills at Payson Park. She is bred to want even more ground than she gets on debut, so the distance is far from a concern. The $190,400 Tattersalls October 2023 purchase should be ready for a big run to kick off her career.
Race 11: Sam F Davis
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 2 Treaty of Rome; 3 John Hancock; 8 Naughty Rascal
Backups: 1 Camp Hale; 7 Poster
Forecast: The Derby qualifier came up competitive and with a lot of horses that like to be involved early on. I am hopeful this sets the table for #2 Treaty of Rome. The son of Uncle Mo is a full-brother to 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up Donna Veloce and has progressed nicely through three starts for Chad Brown. He nearly ran down heavy favorite Guns Loaded in the Mucho Macho Man in his first try against winners and should get a great off the pace trip in his initial run going two-turns.
I will also include #3 John Hancock. The Constitution colt dominated a group of MSW foes going 6-furlongs on debut last month, should relish the added ground, and attracts Flavien Prat. If Prat can avoid getting caught up in the potential duel, he has an obvious big shot. #8 Naughty Rascal also intrigues. The added distance is a concern, but he has been faster since trainer Gerald Bennett removed the blinkers last fall. He has talent. We shall see on the stamina.
#1 Camp Hale ships into Tampa a maiden, but still fits. The team of Ian Wilkes and Whitham Thoroughbreds won the Holy Bull (G3) with Burnham Square last weekend. They are not without a chance in the Sam F. Davis with this Mo Town gelding. #7 Poster lost Prat to John Hancock, but should appreciate the likely race shape after hanging on in the Remsen (G2) in early December.
Race 12:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7 Why Not Me
Backups: 4 Heathguard
Forecast: The sequence concludes with a first-level allowance event over the sod where there is very little speed signed on. This should benefit #7 Why Not Me. The Commissioner gelding encountered traffic issues in the lane before just missing two-back. Then, in his first try at today’s 9-furlong distance, he was bumped at the start and a bit too close to the early pace in a race that fell apart late. With the lack of early zip entered, jockey Pablo Morales should either find himself on the lead or stalking just off #1 Daboom. Either way, I like his chances.
If the pace is more contentious than it appears on paper, #4 Heathguard makes plenty of sense from off the pace. The Florida-bred was forced to make a four-wide move on the far turn while the eventual winner skimmed the rail in his first start of 2025. He should be finishing well under jockey Daniel Centeno.
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