With weather wreaking havoc throughout most of the country, the focus for most horseplayers will shift to Tampa Bay Downs on Friday for their 9-race card that kicks off at 12:20 pm ET. Sunshine is expected throughout the week in Oldsmar, which is music to the ears of many with frigid temperatures keeping people inside in the near-term in most regions. Here are a few horses I will be locking in on tomorrow at Tampa.
Race 5:
This $25k maiden claimer at 1 1/8-miles over the grass lacks early speed. This should bode well for #3 Katarzyna. The Maryland-bred made her first start over the Tampa lawn on January 3 and was not ridden for speed from her outside draw. She ended up making a three-wide middle move on the backstretch into a modest pace and understandably tired late. Prior to that this Practical Joke filly had shown early speed from the gate in her three prior starts, including a pair for current trainer Richard Stillman. Look for jockey Daniel Centeno to use the inside draw to his advantage by gaining favorable forward position out of the gate. From there, he should be able to control things throughout and get this gal to the wire first for the first time in her career.
Play: #3 Katarzyna (9-2 ML)
Race 8:
The pace is not likely to be dawdling, but they also probably will not go cutthroat three across the track like some of these runners saw when competing in a similar spot on January 2. That race was won by #9 Lucky Curlin, but he is up against it to win right back. I much prefer class dropper #5 Fort Charles. The Khozan gelding exits a pair of open claimers earlier in the meet won by 12-time winner The Best Distance, who would be a massive favorite if eligible for this condition. Trainer Michael Simone claimed this 5YO two-back for $8k, raised him up in class on a quick return where he finished mid-pack, and now drops him into him a perfect spot off more normal rest. Expect him to sit mid-pack early under jockey Samy Camacho and out finish this field late for his first local victory.
Play: #5 Fort Charles (3-1 ML)
Race 9:
The finale is a non-winners of two event for $25k claimers at one-mile over the sod and is led by 9-5-ML favorite #7 Life Advice. The 5YO mare struggled to win races against better in Kentucky and New York last summer and continued to do so in her first start at Tampa on December 13. The daughter of Into Mischief had an uncontested lead, yet was still unable to seal the deal. With speed drawn to both sides, it is unlikely Life Advice has things easier in the Wednesday finale, so I will look to a runner who can settle early and take advantage late. #1 Big Lous Messenger fits the profile despite not crossing the wire first yet. The Bucchero filly moved into the Michelle Hemingway barn late last year and put in a big late run in her first start over this course, but just missing. She was put up though via DQ, gets a rider upgrade to Samuel Marin, and draws well along the rail. She should be rolling late for the second straight start.
Play: #1 Big Lous Messenger (6-1 ML)
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