The Lead:
Gulfstream's premier race of summer has been a safe haven for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. in recents years, winning it on 3 straight occasions. His chances at a 4-peat are 3-ply with a trio of the 7 entrants in Saturday's 7-furlong main event. The Princess Rooney inaugurated in 1985 and was named for the first Breeders' Cup Distaff winner the year prior. But it's been a Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint launching pad in its current form with winners like Musical Romance and Ce Ce having success on championship day as well.
Field Depth:
INDY BAY is a Grade 2 winner, while SIMPLY JOKING is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed. BOMBACHA VELOZ was a Group 1 winner in her native Chile. SIMPLY JOKING has the class edge in terms of schedule strength.
Pace:
KERRY'S KISS likely will be fastest away with a clean start while rail-drawn ANAKARINA has plenty of early speed as does widest-drawn NO BAD BEATS. Inside-outside speed in the same field often creates an even faster pace scenario than appears on paper.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
1-ANAKARINA: First of 3 Saffie Joseph Jr. trainees in the entry box, exiting a Colonial Downs stakes win in listed company. Only with the barn in that most recent outing since departing Dallas Stewart's outfit this summer. Has shown major improvement since April and would benefit from a wet track if it presents itself. Not a proven commodity to pass horses and may not be fast enough to make the front.
2-KERRY'S KISS: Broke on top in 6 straight whether sprinting or routing, including both local preps for this that she won in wire-to-wire fashion for Joseph. Well-traveled filly also was a new barn pick-up this summer like Anakarina. Big 97 and 91 BRIS late pace figures in her last 2 front-end victories indicates that it will take a serious late thrust to run past her.
3-SIMPLY JOKING: Classy California raider takes a similar task on that Michael McCarthy gave to Ce Ce in 2021 and 2022 when shipping to Florida to win the Princess Rooney. Simply Joking hasn't raced around 1 turn in 4 starts this year, but was third in the Grade 1 La Brea the day after Christmas. Wasn't as strong late then as you'd hope on the cut-back in trip (90 BRIS late pace figure) but has trained sharply for this at Del Mar. Mixed vibes.
4-JUST A PHILLY: Of the Sheer Drama Stakes alumnae rematched here from Aug. 15, this is the 1 who did the last amount of work since - just a single 3-furlong drill Aug. 31. Former $12,500 claim in February likely has hit her ceiling when distant thirds in both local preps. Prefer others.
5-INDY BAY (pictured): Beaten favorite to Kerry's Kiss in both the Musical Romance and Sheer Drama, it will be interesting to see how much swing there is on the tote in Round 3 for this last of 3 Saffie Joseph Jr. charges. Hard to argue with a 5: 3-1-0 record over the demanding 7F distance, and if Kerry's Kiss is softened up on the pace, her pressing-middle style could be sitting in the catbird's seat. BRIS late pace figures of 106, 98 and 93 in her last 3 are descending but capable of closing the deal. Big chance.
6-BOMBACHA VELOZ: Wildly tough task for Chilean export who hasn't raced since November and hasn't sprinted in more than a year. Trainer Amador Sanchez hitting just 10% on the year and 1-for-6 with newcomers to the US scene like this. A 3-week gap in the workout tab last month is a red flag I'm not going to try and overcome. Not for me.
7-NO BAD BEATS: Second of 2 California shippers, this one fresh off the $50,000 claim for Leonard Powell, exiting leading Del Mar meet trainer Doug O'Neill's shedrow. Powell struggled mightily all meet at Del Mar so it's difficult to project a move forward. In fact, filly ran probably too strong off the 6-month layoff last out to not expect some regression.
Most Likely Exotics Contender:
Tough call between obvious players KERRY'S KISS and INDY BAY, but the latter's ability to rate might make her most likely to land in the superfecta, even if the former is the most likely winner.
Best Longshot Contender:
None projected.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$75 exacta INDY BAY over KERRY'S KISS. $25 back-up exacta KERRY'S KISS over INDY BAY.
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