January marches on as does 1/ST BET and Xpressbet’s 2 Million Rewards Points Late Pick 4 Hit & Split Saturdays. For those new to the promo, just register on the promotional landing page, hit the late Pick 4 at the select track, and split those points amongst only 1/ST BET and Xpressbet customers that connect as well. This week we head to Tampa Bay Downs where the Late Pick 4 kicks off in Race 7 with the $100k Wayward Lass and concludes with a full field open claimer on the lawn.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 7: Wayward Lass
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Peignoir
Backups: None
Forecast: I have no desire to try to beat 2-1-favorite #1 Peignoir in this 1 1/16-mile event for fillies and mares over the main track. The Rodolphe Brisset trainee took on better when we saw her last in the Falls City (G3) at Churchill Downs to end her 3YO campaign. In that Grade 3 event, the Mendelssohn filly broke well and set the pace into the first turn before settling into an inside stalking trip on the backstretch, but had nothing to offer when the real running started. Perhaps it was regression off of two career best efforts prior to it or the off track, but either way Brisset brings her to Tampa Bay Downs off of four 4-furlong drills over the Keeneland main track. Peignoir should be poised for her best with Irad Ortiz Jr. making the trip west to ride.
Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Dreaming of Abba; 7 Mama Bella; 5 Atmidnight
Backups: None
Forecast: #9 Singalong Kayla nearly stole a pair of races on the front end at this level to end 2024, but is unlikely to have things easy this time with #6 Goddess Minerva drawn to her inside. This should ensure an honest pace at the very least.
#3 Shade of Pale is the obvious off the pace filly evidenced by her 7-5-morning line offering. The Peter Brant owned daughter of Demarchelier surprisingly has never taken significant public support for a Chad Brown trainee, but has shown the ability to finish with energy. That said, her lack of early speed has left her with too much to do late more often than not through 4 lifetime starts. So, while she is the class of the field coming in, it might be a touch overstated. In her lone start against graded stakes foes, she did little running after a slow start and finished last.
There is no doubt Brown can be tough to beat when he ships into Tampa, but I am willing to take a swing here, especially since I am singling the favorite in the first leg.
I will try to beat Shade of Pale with a trio of others that also are likely to appreciate a contentious early pace. #4 Dreaming of Abba was caught wide throughout in the December 14 race Singalong Kayla almost stole on the front end. The move inside is an obvious positive. #5 Atmidnight moves up in class for trainer Michael Campbell and retains Junior Alvarado. She may not want to go this far, but should be a huge price making her worth including. #7 Mama Bella won from off the pace two-back at Gulfstream Park to break her maiden. She could be the one making the final move under Sonny Leon.
Race 9:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7 Chrome Ghost
Backups: 4 Nutella Fella
Forecast: This second-level allowance event marks the return of 2023 Hopeful (G1) winner #4 Nutella Fella. The Runhappy colt has only raced once since his upset victory at Saratoga as a 2YO and it came off a 9-month layoff in the Woody Stephens (G1). Once again, the Gary Contessa trainee got off to a slow start that afternoon, but outran his odds finishing third beaten less than two lengths at 20-1. Obviously, the 4YO has soundness concerns and this is an underwhelming spot to return in after coming back in a Grade 1 off the bench last June, but he is the obvious one to beat. That said, he is equally hard to fully trust as a 4-5-morning line favorite.
I will try to beat him with #7 Chrome Ghost. The 5YO gelding has won 2 of 3 over this course with his lone loss coming last out when he finished an off the pace third at the same level. He holds the recency edge and should get the jump on the chalk under jockey Samy Camacho.
Race 10:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Denying; 5 A Western Yarn
Backups: 1 Harpoon Harry
Forecast: #10 Justintimeforwine is the likely pacesetter in this $16k claimer to close the card, but he draws outside and is likely to at least have to work a little in the early stages. #5 Western Yarn should find himself in a perfect stalking spot on the backstretch, much like he did last out against better for trainer Arnaud Delacour. He came under a ride early and was out-finished in that December 6 run over this course, but did encounter some traffic issues that cost him a placement. He gets some significant class relief here for a barn that is 28 for their last 86 for an ROI of $2.60 when dropping horses in for a tag for the initial time. He makes obvious sense.
Hopefully less obvious to the public is #4 Denying. The Derek Ryan trainee has failed to hit the board in two starts at this level to kick off the meet, but 2 of his 3 career wins have come over this course. Plus, he should be set for his best third off the bench. #1 Harpoon Harry has seen better days, but clearly moved too early in a starter to close his 6YO season. He should find favorable forward position with jockey Edwin Gonzalez jumping back aboard. Gonzalez was aboard his most recent victory when he took the field gate-to-wire in a similar spot at Gulfstream Park last May. I will use him as a backup.
Good luck in this week’s promo!
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