Scott Shapiro: Sunday's Ellis Park Derby Day Best Bets

Last weekend turf racing took center stage at Ellis Park with a number of high-quality preps for upcoming Kentucky Downs stakes events. The headliners this Sunday though will be run over the main track, including the $275,000 Ellis Park Derby conducted over the unique one-mile configuration at the Pea Patch.

Overall, six consecutive stakes races close the Sunday card and to celebrate 1/ST BET and Xpressbet have a no-brainer promotion to register for. It is simple. Bet $150 on the Sunday card at Ellis Park and earn a bonus of $20. Here are a few horses I will be leaning on in the stakes- races:


Race 5: Cowboy Jones S.

#8 Injunction makes his second start off the claim for trainer Doug Cowans after a win in the two-turn Schaefer Memorial at Horseshoe Indianapolis. The son of Skipshot has never been worse than second in three tries over the Ellis Park main track and draws favorably outside the main speed. I like his chances to make it two in a row off the claim for a barn that is red-hot of late winning with 16 of 45 over the last 90 days.

#6 Saudi Crown (pictured above) is the understandable 7-5-morning line favorite in his first start since his disappointing effort in Dubai. He is going to have to work early with plenty of other speed to his inside, but if he is at his best they are running for second. That said, this seems like an odd return spot for last year’s Pennsylvania Derby winner, so I am willing to take a swing against on top and a small one in exactas keying Injunction with #9 Three Technique and #10 Raise Cain. Both hopefully will benefit from the expected lively early pace.

Plays:
Win 8 (4-1 or higher), Exacta Key Box 8 with 9+10


Race 6: Ellis Park Derby

This year’s Ellis Park Derby did not draw the sexiest group but it did come up relatively wide-open. #1 Who Dey is listed as the 3-1- morning line favorite off of his runner-up effort in the Matt Winn (G3). The Ohio-bred has shown he belongs against open company stakes foes but it feels like he is a much-better one-turn horse. He is vulnerable despite the strongest resume.

I prefer #2 Most Wanted who enters his first stakes race a perfect 2 for 2 for trainer Brad Cox. The half-brother to Life Is Good got off to a late start to his career but was well-meant on debut going off at odds-on in an 11-horse field at Churchill Downs in late June. He delivered in workmanlike fashion in his first start and once again on July 21 when he won by three-quarters of a length over this surface and distance with plenty left in the tank after crossing the finish line. A career best performance seems well within the range of outcomes on Sunday with Florent Geroux back aboard.


Play: Win 2 (3-1 or higher)


Race 9: Audubon Oaks

The loaded Brad Cox barn also sends out 6-5-morning line favorite #1 Tarifa for her first start since a ninth-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). The Godolphin homebred rattled off three wins in a row in New Orleans, including back-to-back graded stakes victories in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) and Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) but those fields were not as strong as they had been in years’ past. She certainly is the class of the field and won her only start at 7-furlongs back in October of ’23 but I will take a swing against with #6 Mink’s Palace.

Mink’s Palace comes into her first stakes start fresh for trainer Eddie Kenneally after splitting rivals and pulling away late in her first-level allowance victory at Churchill Downs on June 22. The Palace Malice filly has hit the board in all four starts, has plenty of upside still, and should be up close early in a race that is unlikely to see a fast early tempo. Hopefully we get around the 6-1-morning line offering.

Play: Win 6 (4-1 or higher)

Good luck at the Pea Patch!

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