Sunday marks Opening Day at the 2024 Churchill Downs Fall Meeting after a Keeneland meet that saw a lot of wire-to-wire winners, multiple Pick 5 carryovers, and some strong performances from some of racing’s brightest stars. Now it is on to Louisville where the home of the Kentucky Derby will take center stage over the next several weeks. That means a lot of 2YO racing and that starts immediately with the Stars of Tomorrow I card to kick off the meet. Here are a few horses I will be leaning on Sunday afternoon:
Race 6:
The midway point of the 11-race Sunday afternoon slate is this 6-furlong affair for 2YO fillies where I like #5 Banking Silver. The Dallas Stewart trainee finished second on debut and ran even better than it appears on paper.
That first start came on September 29, a day where the inside was the clear place to be. Instead, this Liam’s Map filly broke slowly from the far outside in a field of 12. The slow start and extreme outside draw gave Luis Saez little options from there with his mount. He was caught five-wide on the backstretch and four-wide on the far turn before continuing to battle to the wire to finish second beaten less than a length by even-money favorite, Souk Plaza. Hopefully, she can save more ground and break a bit better this time around. If so, I love her chances at a playable price.
Play: #5 Banking Silver (6-1 ML)
Race 9: Rags to Riches
The first stake of the meet is the $200,00 Rags to Riches, which is conducted at 1 1/16-miles over the main track. The morning line favorites #6 Good Cheer and #2 Claire’s Charm are probably the likeliest winners, but I am going to take a much bigger swing with recent maiden breaker #1 My Lil Punky. The Outwork filly moves inside and stretches out to two-turns after a very sharp effort in her third career start at Keeneland on October 12. With a clean break, Junior Alvarado should be able to dictate terms. The pedigree is questionable, but if Alvarado can back this field down early, the John Ennis trainee could have more left late than most expect.
Play: #1 My Lil Punky (15-1 ML)
Race 11:
The closing day finale is a MSW event for the boys at 8.5-furlongs and the headliner is the regally-bred #1 Bisou. The Curlin colt is out of champion mare Midnight Bisou and is trained of course by North America’s all-time leading trainer, Steve Asmussen. I am looking forward to seeing how he does, but am not in love with his chances of winning at first asking.
I much prefer #3 Limited Edition. The Godolphin homebred bobbled at the start of his debut here at Churchill Downs back in mid-September and was caught three-wide on the backstretch before putting in a strong late run to just get up for second. On the surface, the Not This Time colt was good not great, but he did this over a racetrack that favored speed and did so at a very challenging configuration for first-time starters. Now he stretches out to two-turns and hopefully either breaks better or gets a racetrack that plays more fairly. Either way, I love his chances to run well for trainer Brendan Walsh.
Play: #3 Limited Edition (4-1 ML)
Good luck on opening day!!
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