It is hard to believe the Kentucky Derby was already four weeks ago, but June is upon us and so is Stephen Foster Preview Day at Churchill Downs. Saturday's 11-race card offers up six stakes events, a trio of Pick 5s, and a number of runners hoping not only to win and earn some black type, but also set themselves up for a big run on Closing Weekend in Louisville.
Last year, the Foster Preview Day stakes races saw busy parimutuel windows on Central Avenue with favorite after favorite getting to the wire first. In fact, the biggest price in the sextet of stakes races was Rattle N Roll who won the Blame (G3) on short rest after capturing the Pimlico Special in mid-May paying a measly $5.48. In 2022 though things were quite different as chalk after chalk underwhelmed leading to a late Pick 5 payout of over $424K. With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few morning line favorites that could be vulnerable on Saturday afternoon.
Race 6: Arlington Stakes (G3)
#1 Ottoman Fleet is listed at 9-5 on oddsmaker Mike Battaglia’s morning line after failing at 1-2 in New York last month. The Sea of Stars gelding performed quite well in his 2023 Stateside voyage, but underwhelmed in the Fort Marcy (G2) at Aqueduct on May 4th. The Godolphin runner hopped at the start and struggled a bit to relax early on, but looked like he would be able to overcome the less than ideal beginning when they turned for home. However, he was turned away by Master Piece and Dylan Davis in the lane. The Charles Appleby trainee has won 4 of his last 8, so he certainly is not a hanger, but what price will be too short to take?
Appleby has continued to win at a solid clip with his North American imports, but they also have burnt plenty of money of late losing at odds-on three times dating back to this one’s defeat at “The Big A” a month ago. Ottoman Fleet is obviously capable of winning, but I will take a swing against in this year’s Arlington.
Race 7: Aristides Stakes
#3 Skelly has done little wrong during his 15-race career winning ten times, including 3 of 4 to kick off his 2024 campaign. His $1.5 million in earnings and his incredible early speed make him the clear one to catch, but is he unbeatable in this year’s Aristides? If he gets out of the gate in good order, he will be very tough to run down, but that seems far from a cinch after a pair of slow starts since arriving back in the States for Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen. The Practical Joke gelding was able to overcome those subpar breaks in the Count Fleet Sprint (G3) and Lake Hamilton at Oaklawn Park, but this is certainly something worth watching as the competition gets tougher this spring and summer.
It would be far from surprising if Skelly won his tenth in a row in the States, but he is going to get bet like he already won the race. The 2024 Aristides is no doubt his race to lose, but perhaps another poor start will lead to an upset. I am willing to take a slight stand against to kick off the late Pick 5.
Race 11: Audubon Stakes
#2 Cugino will not be anywhere as short of a price as Ottoman Fleet or Skelly, but he is another morning line favorite potentially worth taking a shot against on Saturday afternoon. The Twirling Candy colt had legitimate excuses in his runner-up efforts in the Colonel Liam and Transylvania (G3) when caught wide throughout in both, but at some point his inability to finish the deal is on him not traffic issues or wide trips. Last time out in a subpar edition of the American Turf (G2), Javier Castellano was able to angle over early and avoid a wide voyage much of the way. Sure, Cugino had to swing wide into the lane while the winner was able to stay inside, but the Shug McGaughey runner seemed to lack a serious rally regardless.
The move to an inside post and the rider switch to Flavien Prat certainly could be the difference, but I am looking to play against the likely public choice in a wide-open two-turn turf race to close the card.
Look for my All-Stakes Stephen Foster Preview Day Late Pick 5 analysis on Friday and best of luck on an outstanding card in the Ville!
.svg){kind=logo}
