There may not be a Triple Crown race this Saturday, but the quality of action in New York is strong nonetheless. The 11-race card at the Big A is headlined by the Ruffian (G2) and the Peter Pan (G3) and offers several strong wagering opportunities to horseplayers throughout the afternoon. In addition to the normal options, Xpressbet and 1/ST BET customers who opt in to the promotion, will split their share of 1 million 1/ST Rewards Points up for grabs if they can correctly connect on the late Pick 5. The sequence kicks off in Race 7 with the John A. Nerud (G3) and has four total stakes races. Let’s get to it.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 7: John A. Nerud (G3)
Grade: C
Main Ticket: 2 Silver Slugger; 1 Full Moon Madness
Backups: 3 Whatchatalkinabout
Forecast: I struggled coming up with a strong opinion in this 6-furlong affair for 4YOs and up over the main track. 3 of the 6 entrants appear extremely up against it on the Win end though, so at least it narrows things down horizontally.
#2 Silver Slugger gets a major class test after rattling off 3 wins this summer at Tampa Bay Downs. He is 6 for 8 over his career, but has earned less than $85k heading into his New York City debut. Despite the lack of quality competition kept of late, the Cairo Prince gelding comes into his first graded stakes try in great form and has clearly shown a desire to win thus far. #1 Full Moon Madness is obvious, but I wonder if he is ready to bounce back yet off of the monster effort two-back in the Tom Fool (G3). He got caught up in a battle late out in the Carter (G2), so I can forgive that off the board run, but he will have to likely work throughout once again from his inside draw.
Race 8:
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1 Activist Investing
Backups: None
Forecast: #1 Activist Investing has only raced once since last September, but it was a strong runner-up effort at Gulfstream Park when he was caught wide throughout and still missed by less than a length. The son of Kingman has proven form over this course, draws favorably to the inside, and should out finish this field under Irad Ortiz Jr.
Race 9: Take the A Train
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 4 Love Cervere; 9 Serving Time
Backups: 6 Annascaul
Forecast: Christophe Clement holds a strong hand in this sprint for 3YO fillies over the outer turf. #6 Annascual ran well in both of her one-turn races as a 2YO and attracts Irad Ortiz for the first time, so she is certainly capable of running this group down in the lane, but I prefer #4 Love Cervere. The daughter of Into Mischief was impressive over this course and distance on debut before trying a pair of two-turn races at Gulfstream Park. She performed quite well losing to the extremely talented Nitrogen in the Ginger Brew, but was forced to miss some time before returning in the Sanibel Island in late March. She was never comfortable that day and got caught in a blind switch, but should be ready for her best on Saturday.
#9 Serving Time has also been really good in her sprints for Cherie DeVaux. The daughter of Without Parole broke her maiden early in the Fair Grounds meet and then ran much better than looks in her win in late December. She was blocked through much of the stretch drive, but somehow found room and finished well from there. She is in with a big shot to make it 3 wins in a row.
Race 10: Ruffian (G2)
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 10 My Mane Squeeze (pictured)
Backups: None
Forecast: #10 My Mane Squeeze opted to run in this Grade 2 at one-mile instead of taking on Grade 1 competition last Saturday in the Derby City Distaff (G2). I thought the NY-bred had a shot in Louisville, so it stands to reason I like her chances quite a bit on Saturday. The Mike Maker trainee made her first start since October last month in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland where she finished a third despite being caught wide over a surface that favored the rail. She gets some class relief here and looks tough to deny in her second try off the bench.
Race 11: Peter Pan (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Vassimo; 6 Uncaged
Backups: None
Forecast: The sequence concludes with this 9-furlong affair that functions as the local prep for next month’s Belmont Stakes (G1). Obviously, this year they will not be held at the same venue, but historically there has been some success with horses winning the Peter Pan and Belmont in succession. Todd Pletcher is hopeful that is the case this year because he has a strong 1-2-punch with #1 Vassimo and #6 Uncaged. In a vaccum, these horses may not stand out over their competition, but they should have a pace advantage on Saturday given the likely race shape.
#6 Uncaged was not out of the gate well last out, but assuming a clean break it seems likely jockey Kendrick Carmouche tries to take advantage of the lack of early speed. He has had things favorably in both career wins, but may once again in his first graded stakes start. #1 Vassimo is more battle tested, but failed to hit the board in his two starts against serious competition in Louisiana. He clearly is still learning the game, but has ability and should be much closer to the early pace in this one given the lack of speed and his rail draw. In Todd We Trust to close this out!
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