No one was able to solve the $1 Pick 6 when racing returned at Saratoga Race Course on Thursday afternoon leaving horseplayers with a carryover of $69,891 for Friday’s 10-race card that kicks off at 1:10 eastern time. The sequence coincides with a late Pick 5 of $50k+ at Ellis Park making it a big day at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet for horizontal players. Here are a few horses I like on today’s slate at the Spa, including my play in the featured Victory Ride (G3).
Race 1:
There appears to be some opportunity in the Friday opener due to #1 Hadrian’s Wall being listed as the prohibitive 4-5-ML favorite. The $1.3M Curlin colt has lost three times already in his career, including twice at even money or less. In his return race during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, the Chad Brown trainee lacked speed from the gate and a strong enough late run to come close to earning his first lifetime score. Sure, one could make the case he might have needed the last race or that the move to an outside draw can help his chances, but he once again will be too short of a price for excuses. I will try to beat the seven-figure Keeneland Sept ’24 purchase with second-time starter #5 Presidential Power. The son of Constitution took no public support in a 10-horse MSW field at 6.5-furlongs on June 5. He did not met a bunch of world beaters that day, but is bred on both sides to be a colt that does his best running at two-turns. He gets plenty of added ground for Todd Pletcher in the lid lifter where he should offer fair value given the presence of Hadrian’s Wall.
Play: #5 Presidential Power (5-1 ML)
Picks: 5-1-6
Race 5:
The Pick 6 with the near $70k carryover kicks off with this second-level allowance event at 6.5-furlongs over the main track where #4 Contrary Thinking should be tough to catch. The son of Into Mischief best known for his role as a rabbit last season for Sierra Leone was purchased at the FTD sale in May for $130k and proved last out he might be more than just a stablemate for top horses after all. New trainer Amelia Green cut him back to 7-furlongs where he ran huge to lose by a nose to 6-5-ML favorite Senior Officer. The 6YO gelding cuts back another half a furlong and should be able to control the tempo in the early going. I like his chances to have enough left late to earn his first victory since last June.
Play: #4 Contrary Thinking (2-1 ML)
Picks 4-5-3
Race 9: Victory Ride (G3)
The featured event is for 3YO fillies sprinting 6.5-furlongs over the main track and marks the return of Spinaway (G1) winner #5 Tommy Jo. The Spendthrift Farm runner failed to improve from there as the distances got longer, but cuts back to a sprint in her first start of 2026. The cutback should certainly benefit, but I will let the well-bred daughter of Into Mischief beat me off the bench.
I will use a few in the Pick 6, including top choice #2 Iron Orchard. The Authentic filly won a pair of races against fellow NY-breds to start her career for Danny Gargan before beating open company foes in the Frizette (G1). Things did not go as planned in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies out west and she has not raced since. She did however command a chilly $2.5M at the FTD November sale and now is in the hands of North America’s all-time leading trainer who legs up regular rider Joel Rosario. Iron Orchard comes in off a bullet 4-furlong gate drill and cuts back to a sprint. She can spring the upset here if ready to roll off bench and is still one to watch if perhaps she needs to shake off the rust for her new barn.
Play: #2 Iron Orchard (5-1 ML)
Picks 2-10-4
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