Saturday’s card at Churchill Downs is one of my favorites to handicap all year. A perfect combination of replay watching, assessing trainer intent, and mixing in some pedigree makes it a true pleasure. Hopefully that leads to some better results than we have had most of this fall meeting.
I wrote up the runners I like in the Derby and Oaks prep races in my Turkey Bowl article, but here are a few others I will be gambling on before the headliners.
Race 1:
The opener is a 7-furlong affair over the main track where #2 Chasten is listed as the 8-5-morning line choice. The Juddmonte homebred is a half-sister to champion mare Idiomatic, who of course is also conditioned by Brad Cox. Idiomatic won her first start, but it was at one-mile over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park. The 2023 Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner was definitely good early, but needed more ground than seven-eights. I am hopeful that will be the case with this Into Mischief filly.
#5 Banking Silver ran huge in her first start in early September. The Liam’s Map filly hopped at the start and was caught wide throughout on a day where the inside was the place to be. The Dallas Stewart trainee was run down by the public choice that day, but lost nothing in defeat finishing second beaten less than a length. Her follow up start was not as good, but probably worked as a strong learning experience. Instead of being in the clear and in the rear, she broke better and was caught in amongst horses for the first time. Now, Luis Saez jumps back aboard and the price should be right.
Play: #5 Banking Silver (8-1 ML)
Race 5:
In a shocking development, Brad Cox also has the morning line favorite in this 7-furlong event in #7 Patch Adams. The son of Into Mischief was extremely well-meant in his first start back at Keeneland on October 11 when he was sent off at 4-5, but failed to do better than third. Cox horses usually improve with a start under their belt, but it is hard to get overly excited about this colt at 8-5 when he really lacked an excuse as the chalk six weeks ago.
I prefer a second-time starter that should offer far better value in #2 Native Runner. The $105k Keeneland September 2023 purchase got the perfect Kenny McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr. learning experience on debut at Keeneland in late October. In that first start, the Laoban colt was out of the gate slow and outrun early, but moved inside and put in a very strong late run to just miss second. The Calumet Farm runner gets an extra half-furlong and is likely to be better out of the gates in his second lifetime try.
Play: #2 Native Runner (6-1 ML)
Race 8:
This two-turn turf race appears as wide-open as any on the 12-race card, so I am going to take a big swing with #5 Bourbonator. The son of Tiz the Law has never hit the board and has been beaten by 66 lengths over his first three starts, but took a significant step forward last out for trainer Keith Desormeaux. He was still beaten double-digit lengths, but was down on the inside in a four-horse battle early and stlll beat half the field home. The move to the turf and to two-turns is what gives the most hope. Desormeaux has been a master over his career of getting the most out of budget type purchases. A lot that of that has to do with patience and the desire to teach them ultimately to get a route of ground. The pedigree does not scream out turf, by any means, but there is some influences on the bottom side. The one I know for sure is he will be the right price to gamble in a race where I simply have no interest in the favorites.
Play: #5 Bourbonator (15-1 ML)
Best of luck!!
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