Just two more Saturdays left in 2024 at Churchill Downs with the Stars of Tomorrow II card next weekend. This 11-race slate is headlined by a pair of Grade 3’s, a number of high-quality 2YO events, and a trio of challenging Pick 5 sequences. Here are a few horses I am building my day around:
Race 4:
My first play comes in this $50k maiden claimer over the main track, which kicks off a middle Pick 5. #3 Levee Was Dry makes his fourth career start, first off the claim for Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, after a strong runner-up effort against lesser in his first start in over a year. In that November 10 run over the off track here at Churchill Downs, this Maclean’s Music gelding found a good spot early and put forth a career best effort, but the winner got the jump. What I like most is Asmussen’s willingness to raise this one up in class despite it being the end of the meet. It would be easy to run him right back for $20-$30k, but instead he shows a ton of confidence in his new runner. Expect a step forward here with Steve’s son, Erik jumping aboard.
Play: #3 Levee Was Dry (4-1 ML)
Race 7:
#7 Sea Vista is listed as the 5-2-morning line favorite off of a runner-up effort this summer at Saratoga, but I much prefer 3-1-second choice #10 Mo Quality. The Chris Davis trainee also makes his second start, but comes back on normal rest after an encouraging runner-up effort to odds-on favorite Touchy in a similar spot at Keeneland last month. In that debut, this Mo Town colt broke a touch slow and traveled wide on the far turn and into the lane on a day where the inside was the place to be. Davis comes in having won 23% of his starts over the last 90 days with a strong $2.59 ROI and lures Tyler Gaffalione. Gaff jumping aboard for the first time may not help our price, but it certainly will not hurt our chances.
Play: #10 Mo Quality (3-1 ML)
Race 8: Chilukki (G3)
There is no question #4 Two Sharp is the one to beat in this one-mile event for the ladies over the main track. The Rigney Racing filly has never finished worse than second and projects to be on the lead with Junior Alvarado aboard. That said, I have concerns at a short price. First, trainer Phil Bauer adds blinkers off a win, which obviously works sometimes, but can also mean she has lost focus in the mornings amongst other possible negatives. Plus, she is going much further than she ever has before. These worries would be easier to get by if she was not 2-1 on oddsmaker Mike Battaglia’s morning line. Therefore, I will take a swing against with #5 Royal Spa. Trainer Rodolphe Brisset has been on quite a roll winning with 21 of 74 starters over the last 90 days for a $1.93 ROI. He brings this filly who has earned 2 of her career victories into this one after shaking off the rust at Keeneland last out when she was up too close to the early pace in a four-horse fourth-level allowance event. Expect Flavien Prat to sit more mid-pack on this daughter of Violence this time around. She should be a square price in the first of two stakes races on the agenda.
Play: #5 Royal Spa (8-1 ML)
Good luck!
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