One of the biggest days of the year in California racing is nearly upon us!
Opening Day at Santa Anita Park is on Thursday afternoon and the racing office has put together a fantastic 11-race card led by the return of Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan in the Malibu (G1). To help with the holiday and Opening Day celebration, Xpressbet and 1/ST BET have decided to put 5 million 1/ST Rewards Points up for grabs in the two Pick 5 pools on the day. Connect on one of the sequences and split your share of 2.5M points. Personally, I am going to try to hit both, but here are my thoughts on the All-Stakes Late Pick 5 that kicks off with the San Gabriel (G2) at 5:03 eastern/2:03 local time.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 7: San Gabriel (G2)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4 Johannes (pictured)
Backups: None
Forecast: I wish I was more creative in this 9-furlong affair over the lawn, but #4 Johannes is far too classy for this group. The Nyquist colt has had an outstanding campaign winning 4 of 5 with the lone loss being a runner-up effort to the hard-charging More Than Looks in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1). If you are trying to poke holes in the heavy chalk, I guess you can point to the fact this could be an after-thought after the biggest race of his career or maybe someone can get away from him and leave him with too much to do late, but that seems pretty unlikely given his tactical speed and dominance of this circuit for a solid period of time at this point. I loved him at Del Mar back in early November and think he will be very tough to deny in here.
Race 8: Malibu (G1)
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 8 Raging Torrent; 1 Bentornato
Backups: 2 Pilot Commander; 4 Senior Office
Forecast: The Malibu is always fun, but the 2024 edition came up particularly strong with the presence of Kentucky Derby winner #6 Mystik Dan obviously adding to the appeal. The Goldencents colt has not raced since his disappointing eighth-place effort in the Belmont (G1) in early June. Nearly all of his success has come at two-turns, but there was a point in his career where distance limitations was a potential knock on his chances of winning a Triple Crown race, so the 7-furlongs is not overly concerning. However, this is an extremely tall task shipping cross-country off over a six-month layoff to take on a field that does not possess all that much early speed. I am not only concerned he could need a race to be at his best, but also he may have too much to do late without a ton of speed signed on. Therefore, I am willing to let Mystik Dan beat me as the 5-2-morning line choice.
I like #8 Raging Torrent most. The stalk and fade off the board finish in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint was clearly not his best, but he was beaten out of the gate and forced to rate along a racetrack where the inside was not the place to be. The Maximus Mischief colt should relish sitting just off what should be a moderate early tempo set by the runner-up in the Sprint #1 Bentornato. The Florida-bred ran huge at odds of 28-1 to finish second to Straight No Chaser. He draws the rail this time and Luis Saez is in to ride. He is very capable of taking this group gate-to-wire.
I had a Kentucky Derby Future Wager on #2 Pilot Commander. The Justify colt clearly was not up for that task, but the talent has always been there for Bob Baffert. He comes in off an easy win against much lesser and could provide some value for a barn that has won this event five times, including last year with Taiba. Brad Cox has won a ton of big races, but never the Malibu. His trainee #4 Senior Officer appears up against it shipping in after just two starts in Kentucky this fall. However, he must be doing great though for them to take this shot. It does not hurt that Flavien Prat will jump aboard.
Race 9: Mathis Mile (G2)
Grade: C
Main Ticket: 1 King of Gosford; 5 Stay Hot
Backups: None
Forecast: #1 King of Gosford was made the 6-5-favorite morning line choice by oddsmaker Jeff Siegel for this year’s Mathis Mile (G2). The 3YO colt has won just 1 of his last 5 after his runner-up effort to Formidable Man last month in the Hollywood Derby (G1), but projects to get a favorable voyage just off a likely moderate pace. Plus, he draws to the inside and attracts the best rider in the country making him the one to beat. That said, I like #5 Stay Hot as much as a racehorse. The Summer Front ridgling has shown an affinity for this course and should appreciate the cutback to one-mile. Hopefully jockey Juan Hernandez can find a way to avoid leaving the Peter Eurton trainee with too much to do in the lane.
Race 10: La Brea (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7 One Magic Philly; 2 Accuracy; 1 Splendora; 8 Sandy Bottom; 11 Cavalieri; 10 Tamara
Backups: None
Forecast: This year’s La Brea drew a big field, including four fillies from trainer Bob Baffert’s barn. Baffert has won the 7-furlong affair for 3YO gals a record 9-times and amongst his quartet is the 3-1-morning line choice #9 Hope Road. The Cicero Farms homebred was bred to be a star being by Quality Road and out of the talented Blame mare, Marley’s Freedom and she has delivered thus far winning won 4 of 7, including back-to-back graded stakes going long at Del Mar. She has talent and class, but has to prove she can cutback to a sprint and deal with plenty of speed to her inside. She certainly has a chance to end the year on a high note, but I am concerned she either gets caught up in an early battle or is outsprinted early and unable to finish with energy from off the pace. So given the questions and her likely price, I will try to beat her with several, including top choice #7 One Magic Philly. The John Gallegos homebred chased the fast pace last out in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint and was even late, but moves off the inside, gets some class relief, and attracts Flavien Prat.
Race 11: American Oaks (G1)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 8 She Feels Pretty
Backups: 13 Rashimi
Forecast: The Opening Day card concludes with the final Grade 1 race of the afternoon. This 10-furlong event over the sod for 3YO fillies drew a full field led by Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) winner #8 She Feels Pretty. Trainer Cherie DeVaux added the blinkers last out to this Karkontie filly and she ran huge winning the Grade 1 event by six lengths under regular rider John Velazquez. The Lael Stables filly has been given plenty of time since and will win right back if she can come close to replicating the mid-October run with the shades on for the initial time.
The best way to beat the She Feels Pretty to the wire is probably to get the jump on her and hope she is not herself after the time off and ship cross-country. Perhaps #13 Rashimi can be the filly that springs the upset. The daughter of Oscar Performance continues to improve. She obviously gets a major class test today, but the price should be right to include her as my backup.
Best of luck!
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