We had to wait a couple of extra days, but we have nearly made it to Opening Day of the Classic Meet at picturesque Santa Anita Park. The 11-race card at the Great Race Place kicks off at 2:00 pm ET and is headlined by six stakes races, including a trio of Grade 1 events. I cannot wait.
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Scott Shapiro’s full-card analysis isolates those horses that should be included in Daily Doubles, Pick- 3’s, Pick- 4’s, Pick- 5’s, and of course Pick- 6’s.
Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.
Race 1:
Grade: C+
Use: 4 Island Home; 8 Chair’s Coin; 1 Photogenic; 3 Springline
Forecast: I had a hard time making strong cases for backing the morning line favorites in the opener. #2 Improbable U should get a great trip under Irad Ortiz Jr. in her first local try, but has had her chances with favorable trips already and failed to cross the wire first. The same is true for #12 Ramayana who has finished second in three consecutive races to begin her career. I will use a few others that are less exposed, as well as #3 Springline, who could find herself on the lead with an inside draw and a rider change to Emisael Jaramillo. Hopefully, we can catch a decent price to kick things off.
Race 2:
Grade: C+
Use: 2 Liam Smith; 7 Captain Shreve
Forecast: I am going to do the unthinkable and take on the uncoupled Bob Baffert entry in this 2YO MSW event at 6.5-furlongs. #1 Winston Ave is the one I prefer of the two, but the rail draw and his lack of speed on debut make him tough to get too excited about at a likely short price. First-time starter #4 Newton cost nearly $1M at the FTS August 2024 sale, but I am not in love with the fact he has worked five times out of the gate prior to making his first start. #7 Captain Shreve sports fast works for a barn that does not win very often at first asking. I will use him a bit, but will focus primarily on #2 Liam Smith. The Midshipman colt is a half-brother to talented 3YO Jimmys Dailys and comes in off a bullet 5-furlong drill over this surface on December 18. He looks quick.
Race 3:
Grade: B
Use: 9 Miss Artois; 5 Toes; 6 Royal Charter; 11 Starts Now; 10 My Perfect Wave
Forecast: The pace is likely to be quick in this first-level allowance over the Santa Anita sod, so I will look for runners that can settle early and finish late. Several prices fit the profile, but the one I prefer most is #9 Miss Artois. The Mucho Macho Man filly comes in off a runner-up effort where she really came home late over the good going at Del Mar. With lots of rain in the area, the likelihood is the course will certainly have some give in it on Sunday. This and the race shape should benefit this Pam Ziebarth homebred in search of her second lifetime score.
Race 4:
Grade: C
Use: 2 Rizzleberry Rose; 3 Miss Practical; 10 Clubhouse Ride
Forecast: I lack a strong opinion in this state-bred first-level allowance over the main track, but gave the slight nod to #2 Rizzleberry Rose. The Governor Charlie filly showed grit and determination battling to the wire last out despite being put into a tight spot early. The worry is the amount of speed signed on to her outside, so I will use a couple of others, including lightly-raced #3 Miss Practical. If they go at it early, she could be rolling late off the bench.
Race 5: Mathis Mile (G2)
Grade: X
Use: 3 Namaron
Forecast: I am not creative in the first of 6 stakes races on the Opening Day slate. #3 Namaron has finished third against better competition in both starts since arriving from Germany. Last out, he made the lead at the top of the lane, but got a bit lost out there and was out finished by a pair of rivals, including the very talented Graham Motion runner, Test Score. The blinkers go on, which along with the decrease in competition should do the trick for the European invader.
Race 6: Laffit Pincay Jr. (G2)
Grade: X
Use: 1 Nysos *pictured*
Forecast: To no one’s surprise trainer Bob Baffert could be poised for a big Opening Day. His likeliest winner is #1 Nysos. The 4YO colt has rattled off three straight wins since his near miss in the Churchill Downs (G1) off the bench. He is 3 for 3 over this surface and should have no problem staying undefeated in Arcadia.
Race 7:
Grade: B
Use: 8 Mucho Del Oro; 1 Anmer Hall
Forecast: #1 Anmer Hall is the likeliest winner in the start of what should be a massive late Pick 5 pool. The Palace Malice gelding has won 3 of 9 over this course and 4 of 6 at the tricky 6.5-furlong distance. The concern is his lack of speed with an inside draw. Theoretically, this could present serious traffic issues for the 7-2-ML favorite, so I will also use #8 Mucho Del Oro. Like Anmer Hall, the 7YO gelding has shown an affinity for this course and configuration. If he has things easy on the front end, he is likely to make the field pay.
Race 8: La Brea (G1)
Grade: B-
Use: 11 Silent Law; 6 Brilliantly; 9 Formula Rossa
Forecast: The first of 3 Grade 1’s is for 3YO fillies at 7-furlongs over the main track where I like a pair of Baffert trainees the most. #6 Brilliantly has been training forwardly for her second start off the layoff. She is very likely to be on the lead and could be sitting on a career best run. #11 Silent Law has run some good races despite not having won since October ’24. I am hopeful they try new tactics with this Tiz the Law filly. Joel Rosario could be the right man to relax her in the early going and come with a strong late run down the middle of the track.
Race 9: San Gabriel (G3)
Grade: B-
Use: 9 Cabo Spirit; 6 Nesso’s Lastharrah; 11 Nineeleventurbo
Forecast: There is not a lot of early speed in this 9-furlong affair over the grass and the two runners likely to take the most public support have been camera shy of late. I will use three prices in hopes of separating in the late horizontals, including top choice #9 Cabo Spirit. He has run some big races when he has had things his way early. Hopefully that happens once again on Sunday.
Race 10: Malibu (G1)
Grade: B+
Use: 10 Goal Oriented
Forecast: Bob Baffert holds an extremely strong hand in the traditional Opening Day feature for 3YO males. I am hopeful #8 Cornucopian and #9 Barnes take the most action because I really like the chances of #10 Goal Oriented. The blinkers come off this son of Not This Time that has been keeping the best company in 2025. He kept his own against the likes of Journalism, Baeza, and Magnitude and should get a dream trip on the turn back from his far outside draw. He is my top play of the afternoon.
Race 11: American Oaks (G1)
Grade: C+
Use: 6 Take A Breath; 10 Atsila; 3 Cliffs
Forecast: This 10-furlong affair for 3YO fillies over the grass concludes the card. I like #6 Take A Breath most. The Mark Glatt trainee has not had things her way over the last couple of starts after a promising run off the plane in the Del Mar Oaks (G1). She gets Irad Ortiz Jr. for the first time and hopefully a clean run at a big price. #10 Atsila and #3 Cliffs are the others I will use to close out what should be a great day in Southern California. Best of luck!
We will all be thinking of you today, Jeff Siegel. Thank you for all you have done for the game and the art of handicapping.
.svg){kind=logo}
