There is a plethora of options on Preakness Day for horizontal players, as well as a pair of two-day Pick 5 wagers that include stake races on both Friday and Saturday. However, the one that will have the largest pool will be the Pick 5 that concludes with the 150th running of the Preakness Stakes (G1). It includes a little bit of everything starting with a turf sprint to kick things off, a two-turn turf race for 3YOs and one for older runners, and of course a pair of two-turn races over the main track for 3YOs.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 9: Jim McKay Turf Sprint
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Mattingly; 5 Determined Kingdom
Backups: 4 Witty
Forecast: I will take on the two morning line favorites in this 5-furlong affair over the grass. 2-1-choice #6 Coppola has a ton of early zip and was really good down in Florida this winter, but has tailed off since. There is some other speed in here to keep him honest and he is probably that much more vulnerable over a turf course with some give in it. #2 No Nay Hudson is the 5-2-second choice. He got a perfect trip last time out against lesser at Keeneland. He can win, but at an underlaid price.
I like #8 Mattingly most. The Florida-bred took a big step forward last out in his victory over the Gulfstream Park lawn. He moves up in class, but retains one of the better turf sprint riders in the game in Paco Lopez. The outside draw gives Lopez options out of the gate. At 8-1 he offers some value. #5 Determined Kingdom is a bit more obvious. The son of Animal Kingdom shook off the rust at Laurel last out in the King T. Leatherbury when he was caught wide throughout. He has won 10 of 26 in his career. His best likely beats these. #4 Witty is faster over dirt, but gets Flavien Prat. He should be rolling late if the race plays out like it does on paper.
Race 10: Sir Barton
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 9 Just a Fair Shake
Backups: 6 Invictus; 1 Crudo; 3 Bear Claw Necklace
Forecast: #6 Invictus is probably an underlay in this race at his 9-5-morning line price or lower, but that does not mean he is a great fade, especially if you are using prices in some other legs within the sequence. There is no doubt he is bred to be a star being by Into Mischief and out of 2019 Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress, but he is facing winners AND trying a route of ground for the first time. Plus, the field he beat at Keeneland was not a strong one. He still has questions to answer, but clearly has the highest ceiling.
#9 Just a Fair Shake is the bet for me in this year’s Sir Barton. The $8k son of Laoban has already overachieved with his runner-up effort in the Federico Tesio when he was caught ridiculously wide throughout and still grinded away second at odds of 22-1. The outside draw again is not ideal, but hopefully jockey Jaime Rodriguez can work out a cleaner trip in this colt’s third start off the bench.
Race 11: James W. Murphy
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7 Reagan’s Wit
Backups: None
Forecast: #7 Reagan’s Wit disappointed last out in the Transylvania (G3) at Keeneland where he had no visible excuses as the 9-5-favorite, but his race prior to that should handle this field. The Authentic colt lost by a neck at Tampa in the Columbia, but did so to impressive American Derby (G1) winner Zulu Kingdom. Anything close to that performance and this field is running for second place. If the Cherie DeVaux trainee fails again without trouble, he will be tough to get excited about moving forward.
Race 12: Dinner Party (G3)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5 Abrumar; 4 Neat
Backups: 1 Divin Propos; 10 Fort Washington
Forecast: There is a serious lack of early speed in this year’s Dinner Party. This could make things difficult for those likely to take the most money, including 5-2-favorite #13 Trikari. The Graham Motion trainee had a fantastic 3YO season, but against a subpar crop. He ran into a buzzsaw last out in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) when finishing third to Carl Spackler, but has lacked speed thus far in 2025 and draws way outside. Last year’s winner #6 Balnikhov will take plenty of public support as well, but that race played out much more favorably for him than I expect this one too. Plus, he it is fair to ask if he has lost a step since his last-to-first win over the soft going in 2024.
I am taking a big swing on top with #5 Abrumar. The Divisidero colt has not been ridden that aggressively of late, but has tactical speed and is part of a Saffie Joseph Jr. uncoupled entry that also includes late running #7 Cash Equity. It makes all the sense for Jose Ortiz to send this horse out of the gate given the variables. Hopefully, he can get us home with a massive separator before the Preakness.
I will also use #4 Neat. Everything went wrong for the son of Constitution last out in the Henry Clark, yet he still only lost by two lengths. He has won 6 of 13 overall for Rob Atras. #1 Divin Propos attracts Luis Saez and draws the inside. That is a dangerous combo in a race that looks void of early speed, so I will include despite not being all that crazy about the races he exits.
Race 13: Preakness (G1)
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2 Journalism
Backups: None
Forecast: I was bullish on Clever Again’s chances if Journalism bypassed this race and could understand using him or #1 Goal Oriented as backups or in an effort to beat the Derby runner-up. However, I am all in on the son of Curlin.
This colt ran a big race two weeks ago in May, but had to work harder early on than his connections would have preferred. That does not mean he would have held off Sovereignty, but he almost certainly could have finished with more energy. Journalism does not face anyone the quality of the Derby winner or Baeza in the second jewel of the Triple Crown and appears ready to roll off of the short rest. Hopefully, he does not let me down once again!
Good luck!
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