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After a week that saw Paladin fight the bias at Fair Grounds to win the Risen Star (G2) as the public choice and Pavlovian and Express Kid throw down in Sunday’s Sunland Derby, it is a light week on the Triple Crown prep docket. The John Battaglia Memorial over the all-weather at Turfway Park is the lone domestic race rewarding points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard. I will get to that later, but without further ado (pun intended) it is on to this week’s Prep School.
Current Contender under 20-1 I like least from Kentucky Derby Future Pool 4: Canaletto
For those that missed it, Derby Future Pool 4 was conducted last weekend and to no surprise it was still “All Other 3-Year-Olds” going off favored (9-2). Of the individual entries, it was the aforementioned Paladin going off as the slight public choice (9-1) with Nearly, Canaletto, Renegade, and Silent Tactic being the others that are paying $40 or less on a $2 wager. Paladin’s effort in New Orleans on Saturday evening is tough to decipher. On the one hand, I love that he overcame an inside speed bias to get the job done in his first start as a 3YO, but he regressed in terms of his Brisnet late pace rating, and beat very little in this year’s Risen Star. He is a fade for me at his current price, as is Nearly as discussed in last week’s “Prep School”, but I prefer their value at this point to Canaletto. The son of Into Mischief was impressive in winning his debut at the challenging one-turn mile distance at Gulfstream Park, but has a long way to go before even making the gate. His trainer Chad Brown has illustrated in the past that he is not a conditioner all-in on pushing horses into the Derby starting gate. He has opted to run horses like Cloud Computing in the Preakness instead, if it works better for what he deems to be their overall potential. So not only does a horse that did not make his first start until late January have to be good enough from a talent perspective, but also needs things to go perfectly for his connections to run him on the first Saturday in May. 15-1 seems ridiculous at this point.
Horse I Bet on Sunday afternoon in Kentucky Derby Future Pool 4: Blackout Time
With several runners at underlaid prices with just hours left until the pool closed, I opted to add a wager to my portfolio about 2.5 months from this year’s Kentucky Derby on Blackout Time. Without a wow performance to date, it would not surprise anyone if this year’s Derby winner still has yet to race in 2026. Blackout Time is a colt that has not competed in the afternoons since his runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) last October. The son of Not This Time has done very little wrong through 3 starts with a second-place effort on debut followed up by an eye-popping win at Ellis Park. The Kenny McPeek trainee lost little in defeat running second to Ted Noffey to end his 2YO season and has worked without issue since returning to the tab on January 23. This is a horse that we know can finish and should be set to make his first start off the bench in next Sunday’s Rebel (G2).
Horse with Most to Prove this Weekend: Stop the Car
The lone Triple Crown prep this weekend is the John Battalgia Memorial at 1-1/16 miles over the Turfway Park all-weather. The race was made a points race in 2021 and while the winners of the event have yet to make an impression on the Triple Crown, 2022 fourth-place finisher Rich Strike shocked the world with his late rally under jockey Sonny Leon. You can say I learned the hard way not to sneeze at this race despite not being on dirt. With a full field signed on, there are lots of colts with a chance to prove themselves on Saturday night, but none more than #9 Stop the Car. The Maximum Security colt rattled off a pair of off-the-pace victories to kick off his career for trainer Ben Colebrook before being caught wide throughout over a racetrack that favored the inside in the Lecomte (G3) last month. The Brendan Walsh trainee may or may not move back to the dirt with a strong performance in Florence, but regardless has the most to prove after the strong start to his career in 2025.
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