1/ST BET and Xpressbet had exciting promotions to kick off the year, but they paled in comparison to the wonderful options put together by the marketing team in preparation for Saturday’s Pegasus World Cup. In addition to $10 Money Back specials on all three of the Pegasus races if your win bet finishes second or third, there are a trio of Hit & Split opportunities worth 5 million 1/ST Rewards Points over the outstanding 13-race card. I will discuss the early Pick 5 in a blog out on Friday, but let’s dive into the late sequences first since there are 4M points up for grabs with these!
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
STARTS LATE PICK 5
Race 9: William L. McKnight (G3)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 10 Utah Beach; 11 Bold Act
Backups: 3 Cathkin Peak
Forecast: The late Pick 5 kicks off with this 10-furlong affair over the lawn where #11 Bold Act is the clear one to beat. The Godolphin homebred comes in fresh for trainer Charles Appleby after a nose defeat to close out his 4YO season in the Sycamore (G3) at Keeneland. He is by far the likeliest to hit the board, but perhaps is getting a little bit hard to trust. He has been defeated in four consecutive starts at 3-1 or less with two of the losses coming at odds-on. That said, he is the clear class of the field and very tough to toss to get things started.
#10 Utah Beach is my top choice since he is going to be a lot bigger price. The English Channel gelding has been defeated handily by Bold Act in both of their encounters, but has run some of his best races over this course. He also has shown an affinity for the 1 1/2-mile distance. #3 Cathkin Peak also makes his first start since the Sycamore. He went way too fast that afternoon in Kentucky, but could steal this thing if jockey Jose Ortiz is able to relax the 7YO off the break.
STARTS LATE PICK 4
Race 10: Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G2)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1 Raqiya
Backups: 6 Dona Clota
Forecast: #1 Raqiya has only raced once in the States, but it was an impressive win last November at Del Mar on the Breeders’ Cup under card. In that one-mile run, the Shadwell Stable filly broke sharp and took control right away under Frankie Dettori and had plenty left late to seal the deal in her first start going two-turns. The Blue Point filly has won 5 of 8 overall and draws favorably to the inside. I like her chances to kick off her North American career a perfect 2 for 2
If you are looking for a long shot, perhaps #6 Dona Clota makes some sense. Trainer Nacho Correas IV has been great over the years bringing South American imports into the US and having success on some of the biggest stages. The daughter of Irish-bred Ivan Denisovich probably wants more ground than she gets this afternoon, but I will include as a backup and in my late Pick 4 at her 15-1-morning line price.
Race 11: Inside Information (G2)
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 9 Emery
Backups: None
Forecast #7 Mystic Lake was made the 2-1-morning line favorite by oddsmaker Brian Nadeau in this 7-furlong dash over the main track, but I prefer #9 Emery. The Stonestreet Stables filly has done very little wrong through her first seven races. She is 5 for 7 with her two defeats coming over the slop in the Frizette (G1) in her second career start and over the mud to the impressive Ways and Means in the Test (G1). Brad Cox has had her down in Florida for some time and she should get a perfect stalking trip off the bench under regular rider Tyler Gaffalione. A single for me in both sequences.
Race 12: Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Formidable Man; 6 Major Dude
Backups: 7 Nations Pride; 3 Mi Hermano Ramon
Forecast: #7 Nations Pride is the second Godolphin/Appleby morning line favorite within the late Pick 5. However, unlike his stablemate Bold Act, he has not lacked a will to win of late. The 6YO has won 10 of 19 overall, including an easy victory in the Arlington Million (G1) when he last competed in the States. He is the deserving favorite, but there are a few others I give close to an equal shot making them far better wagering options given their likely off odds and value within both sequences.
#2 Formidable Man needs to run a career best to have a chance, but he is capable. The Michael McCarthy trainee won three consecutive stakes at Del Mar against 3YOs to end 2024 and could have a pace advantage in a race that lacks serious early speed types. Hopefully, Umberto Rispoli is aggressive right out of the gate. #6 Major Dude will probably be sitting in a perfect spot just off the early lead under Irad Ortiz Jr. He has two wins and a second over this course and is an obvious contender. #3 Mi Hermano Ramon is a horse on the come. He was caught wide on the backstretch, yet ran a strong second to Johannes in the San Gabriel (G2). If he handles the cross-country ship, he is extremely dangerous.
Race 13: Pegasus World Cup (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Stronghold; 11 Locked
Backups: 4 White Abarrio; 2 Saudi Crown
Forecast: The biggest race of the year in Florida closes both sequences and it drew a solid field of 12 led by morning line favorite #11 Locked. The Gun Runner colt went off the post-time favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Firecneness back in 2023 when he finished third to stablemate Fierceness, but unfortunately did not race again until almost a year later. Since his return, the upside and talent have been on display during his two dominant wins going one-turn in New York, but he has to prove he can handle the added ground and probably more importantly avoid a wide trip from his unfavorable draw. He is still the one to beat.
From a wagering perspective though, I prefer #6 Stronghold. The son of Ghostzapper has really never run a bad race. His only off the board finish came when he was much more of a factor in the Kentucky Derby (G1) than his seventh-place finish suggests. He comes in off a career-best effort going just 7 furlongs in the Malibu, has proven he can run over multiple different racetracks already, and should love getting back to two-turns.
#2 Saudi Crown and #4 White Abarrio are the other two runners I consider win contenders. Saudi Crown put it altogether last out in the Tenacious in New Orleans. If he finds himself loose on the lead, he might be good enough. White Abarrio is obvious. He has been fantastic at Gulfstream Park over the years and brings the best resume in. I am just not sure he is the same race horse at the age of 6.
Best of luck on Pegasus Day!
.svg){kind=logo}
