Racing officially moves from Keeneland to Churchill Downs on Saturday afternoon, which will also be when the Kentucky Derby draws occur. The draw along with the Kentucky Oaks comes between the third and fourth races on the Opening Day slate and to kick off the meet in Louisville, Xpresssbet and 1/ST BET are offering a one-day promotion. The “Churchill Triple Tri $2500 Hit & Split”is live just on April 25 with the goal of connecting on three $1 trifecta wagers over the course of the ten-race card. Those that register and are able to do so will share the $2500 bonus prize. I analyzed the late Pick 4 below, but will certainly take a swing at the promo as well to get my meet started in the “Ville.”
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 7:
Grade: C
Main Ticket: 7 Goodbetterbest
Backups: 4 Classy’n Connected
Forecast: A $40k open claimer over the grass kicks off the first late Pick 4 of the meet where I lack creativity. #4 Classy’n Connected was made the 2-1-ML favorite in her first start off a two and a half month freshening for trainer Tom Drury Jr. The Connect mare is winless over the grass in three starts, but does have a second over this course last fall against a bit tougher. Her best puts her there at the wire, but I prefer #7 Goodbetterbest. The daughter of Collected was beaten a block last time out at Turfway Park, but should relish getting back to the grass. Tyler Gaffalione should have her in a prominent spot early in her second start for trainer Brittany Vanden Berg.
Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 10 Where Y’at
Backups: 3 Shadow Coast
Forecast: The pace should be honest in this $16k non-winners of two event over the main track, but if it is softer than it appears on paper it is #3 Shadow Coast that could prove tough to get by. The son of West Coast earned his only win over this surface last fall and attracts Luis Saez. However, he is likely to take heat most of the way, which should bode well for #10 Where Y’at. The Michael Tomlinson trainee moves from turf-to-dirt and cuts back to a sprint after a speed and fade run in New Orleans in early March. The outside post should allow jockey Axel Concepcion to play the break and keep this one in the clear in case the speed begins to back up. Hopefully, he has enough late to get to the wire first.
Race 9: Roxelana
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7 Vincey Girl
Backups: None
Forecast: The feature is a 6-furlong dash over the main track for older fillies and mares and I like the chances quite a bit of #7 Vincey Girl. Trainer Jose D’Angelo can be streaky. The Florida-based conditioner had a tough winter, but is heating up of late evidenced by his 10 for 50- record over the last 30 days with a $2.38 ROI. This Race Day mare won off the layoff against lesser at Tampa in late March, attracts Irad Ortiz Jr, and should get a great setup for her off the pace run. A single for me and a race where I will key her on top in hopes of knocking down my last Trifecta for the Hit & Split promotion.
Race 10:
Grade: X
Main Ticket: 3 Without
Backups: None
Forecast: #3 Without will not be a good price, but should be tough to beat in the finale. The son of Lope De Vega steadied early and had traffic issues late in his fifth-place finish at Keeneland against similar on April 3. The Graham Motion trainee has lost all three starts in the States thus far, but has kept solid company along the way. He was bet off the board last out and attracts Irad Ortiz this time after a less-than-ideal voyage under Javier Castellano earlier this month. This feels like a “if not now when” type spot for the 4YO gelding.
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