The Lead:
Saratoga co-features the Vanderbilt for sprinters and the Coaching Club American Oaks for 3-year-old dirt fillies on Saturday. While the Vanderbilt didn't come up as tough as its history suggests, the CCA Oaks certainly held form. The Kentucky Oaks and Acorn winners rematch, and neither wind up the top pick.
Horseplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet be sure to check out the $10,000 Trifecta-Thon this week when you play Saratoga each day Thursday through Sunday.
Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners COUNTING STARS (pictured) and ALWAYS A RUNNER top the marquee, while ZANY is a Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed. It will take some regression to knock off this group or a step-up effort by one of the class risers who have hinted at their ability.
Pace:
The pace likely comes from LA RASCASSE and DIRECTIVE. The tempo looks comfortable enough that you don’t want to be closing from too far out of this pace.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
1-COUNTING STARS: Romping winner of the Acorn last month over this track and distance when avenging her Kentucky Oaks loss to return rival Always a Runner. A repeat of that performance makes her obviously the horse to beat. Not sure she came out of the Acorn as good as she went into it, given only 1 workout in the first month after that race and just 4 lined up for this. Note she’s 4: 1-0-1 following victories and hasn’t always been as effective pairing up big efforts – which speaks a bit to the workout tab since. She’s had no break in her form cycle for nearly a year and at some point will need to step off the gas, but would not shock to produce another winning effort. Think there are enough questions to avoid at what will be a short price as the favorite or very close second choice.
2-DANDONA: Turf and synthetic performer hasn’t tested dirt in 5 prior starts, but she’s a $1 million daughter of Belmont winner Tiz the Law. Pedigree leans more to a miler with a 1-run closing kick and her past performances looked sharper going shorter. Gets to save all the ground while likely far back early, but will take a lot of dirt in her face for the first time. Saffie Joseph Jr. barn hasn’t been firing on all cylinders so far at the Spa. Pass for me.
3-LA RASCASSE: Unbeaten filly is the least-experienced CCA Oaks entrant in the lineup and looks for a third straight victory. High-percentage trainer Will Walden has gotten wins from this Authentic filly around 1 turn and 2 and over the surfaces at Keeneland and Churchill Downs. This will be her first true road trip, longest test and first start at 9 furlongs. Expect her into the pace discussion, but an 84 BRIS late pace figure in the Monomoy Girl Stakes over 1-1/16 miles doesn’t give a rousing endorsement that she can shake clear of these and hold sway. But an inner draw at this configuration at Saratoga and early pace presence gives her the best chance. Prefer others.
4-MISS FULTON GAL: Mid-Atlantic based shipper has won 3 of her last 5, including listed stakes at Laurel and Delaware Park. But she failed her class test in the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan and this field rates significantly more talented. The 9-furlong distance suits her fine, but the level of competition likely will be too much to overcome.
5-MEASURE: Stakes debut for June 4 local allowance runner-up to CCA Oaks rival Directive. Second of 2 Mark Casse trainees here will be significantly higher price than barnmate Counting Stars. Just 1 win in 5 starts and will need the pace to come back to her to be successful. Jockey Jose Ortiz jumps saddles to Always a Runner, putting Manny Franco aboard. Strong-enough BRIS late pace figures to pass some runners over 9 furlongs if the track is playing fair, but difficult to project in the winner’s circle.
6-ALWAYS A RUNNER: Kentucky Oaks winner made a rapid ascent in doing so in her third lifetime start. Her Acorn runner-up at 4-5 odds obviously disappointed the betting public, but she was probably ridden a tad too confidently while giving away ground in a small field. Jose Ortiz hasn’t made many mistakes in 2026 and don’t expect him to do so again. I prefer her of the rematched Acorn rivals with an extra workout on the tab compared to Counting Stars. Her BRIS late pace figures are solid 98, 94, 90 but in descension, and for a closer, could find a quality speed horse who keeps going to be her kryptonite. Big threat.
7-DIRECTIVE: Progressive filly makes her stakes debut, fresh off a win over the track and distance in a lively 1:48-1/5. Juddmonte home-bred is a half-sister to Grade 1-winning turfer Segesta out of the accomplished turf mare Antonoe. Gets plenty of dirt stamina from sire Gun Runner and has been consistent with 92 BRIS late pace figures both around 1 turn and 2. Any step forward and she’s the best of the early players and will be a difficult challenge to reel in. Trainer Chad Brown won this race with lightly raced Guarana in 2019, who also was an April debuter and late bloomer. My play.
8-ZANY: The lukewarm favorite never looked like a winner in the Kentucky Oaks when finishing fith and has been fairly quiet since. Only 5 workouts on her tab show, including a concerning, 16-day gap in late June. Blinkers go on a filly who when starting out 3-for-3 was teased as a divisional standout. She’s come back to earth in the Ashland and Oaks. Trainer Todd Pletcher not going well of late in New York, and even though he’s won this race a record 8 times, only 1 of those have come since 2015. I’ll make her beat me.
9-NYCON: Cross-entered Friday at Saratoga in an allowance. No match for Always a Runner in April’s Gazelle has only 4 workouts back for what would be a massive ask if she shows up here. Outside draw does her no favors with short run into first turn and her finishing kick has been lackluster.
Most Likely Exotics Contender:
ALWAYS A RUNNER vies for favoritism and while I'll try to beat her, there's the utmost respect that she'll run her race and be in the exotics hunt.
Best Longshot Contender:
MEASURE will be overlooked in a field of stars and is a decent-enough finisher to bottom the superfecta if any of the name players regress and add some price juice.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win DIRECTIVE.
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