We think we know a lot now, but things will be that much clearer after Tuesday in terms of the Kentucky Derby picture. With The Wood Memorial (G2), and Santa Anita Derby (G1) on Saturday and the Blue Grass (G1) now pushed back to early next week, not only will we have a good feel for who will be in the gate on the first Saturday in May, but who will take the most money. The big 3YO races also give 1/ST BET and Xpressbet customers three more cracks at the Triple Crown Money Back Special where you get up to $10 back if your Win bet finishes 2nd or 3rd. Make sure to register if you are new to the promotion.
Saturday
Wood Memorial, Aqueduct Race 12
It is hard to envision there not being an honest early tempo in this year’s Wood Memorial. #1 Rodriguez is likely to use his speed in his first start outside of California for Bob Baffert with several drawn to his outside also wanting to be involved in the early proceedings. This should bode well for #6 Hill Road. The Quality Road colt showed a strong turn of foot two-back when he rolled home at 61-1 to finish 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Trainer Chad Brown took over training duties following that big late run in California and gave him until last month when he finished a well-beaten third to Owen Almighty in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). Hill Road was slightly underwhelming in the race, but not if you take into account the time off and the lack of pace he encountered. That said, he still finished well and galloped out with intent. This should set him up for a huge run with a more favorable race shape in New York on Saturday.
Play: Hill Road (9-2 ML)
Santa Anita Derby, Santa Anita Race 10
#1 Journalism was very good as a 2YO, but took a big step forward off the 2.5-month layoff last out in the San Felipe (G2). The Michael McCarthy trainee went and got 2-5-favorite #4 Barnes and did so with good looking strides. The $825k FTS August 2023 purchase should relish the added half furlong and has every reason to take another step forward in his second start off the bench. I like his chances to win his fourth in a row and head to Louisville as the prohibitive favorite for the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
Play: Journalism (6-5 ML)
Tuesday
Blue Grass Stakes, Keeneland Race 10
I am sure most of you have heard that Keeneland’s big Saturday card has been pushed back to Tuesday. I prefer this to running in a quagmire since it should give us a better idea of where these colts and geldings stand about a month out from the Derby. The favorite next month is unlikely to exit this year’s Blue Grass, but that does not mean there are not a few potential major players.
I am hoping #3 Burnham Square puts himself back on the map after a flat fourth-place finish to Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth (G2). The Liam’s Map gelding came back a little quick after two big wins in Florida for Ian Wilkes. The Whitham Thoroughbreds homebred ran well on debut over this surface going far shorter than he prefers and I like the move to Brian Hernandez, Jr. Expect him to save ground early and come with his run when they hit the far turn. Hopefully he gets overlooked in the wagering.
Play: Burnham Square (9-2 ML)
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