Kentucky Derby weekend is great for so many reasons. Not only do we get to see the best of the best throw it down for two days, but we get to gamble on it as well!
The wagering menu available on both Oaks and Derby Day is fantastic. Horseplayers have a plethora of options on both Friday and Saturday and then also have the opportunity of attacking two-day wagers that end with the 150th “Run for the Roses.” One of those is the two-day Pick 3, which has a 50-cent minimum and handled over $625K a year ago. The wager kicks off with the Kentucky Oaks on Friday and then features the Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic and the Kentucky Derby on Saturday afternoon.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Kentucky Oaks: Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 13 Just F Y I; 8 Tarifa
Backups: 11 Ways and Means; 5 Thorpedo Anna
Forecast: I wish I was more creative in what has turned out to be really fun edition of the “Run for the Lilies”, but the top tier appears to stand out quite a bit from the rest of the group in 2024. I had a difficult time separating #8 Tarifa and #13 Just F YI, but in the end, I went with the two-year-old champion. The Justify filly’s return race in the Ashland was a great starting point where she was caught wide much of the way, but still finished second. She appears to be training extremely well leading up to her second start off the bench and maybe will offer slightly better value than Tarifa. That said, Tarifa merits major respect as well. The Godolphin filly rattled off three consecutive wins this winter in New Orleans and retains the services of one of the best big race riders in the game, Flavien Prat. #11 Ways and Means and #5 Thorpedo Anna also make a ton of sense and have a lot of talent, but I have slight concerns about them handling more ground.
Turf Classic: Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 I’m Very Busy
Backups: 5 Program Trading
Forecast: Trainer Chad Brown won this race in 2019 with Bricks and Mortar, in 2020 with Digital Age, and dead heated in 2021 when Domestic Spending threw it down big with Colonel Liam. Brown holds an extremely strong hand again in 2024 with #5 Program Trading and #6 I’m Very Busy. I prefer I’m Very Busy who has gotten very good as a four-year-old. The Cloud Computing colt just missed in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Turf at Gulfstream before crushing the group assembled at Fair Grounds in the Muniz Memorial. He once again lures Irad Ortiz, Jr and will be my key horse in this 9-furlong affair over the sod. #5 Program Trading has a big shot as well though. Being entered in this spot in his first try against older runners off a 6-month break tells you how highly regarded this Klaravich Stables ridgling is. He should get the jump on his stablemate in search of his fifth win in six lifetime tries.
Kentucky Derby: Grade: B
Main Ticket: 8 Just a Touch, 2 Sierra Leone
Backups: 17 Fierceness, 4 Catching Freedom, 6 Just Steel
Forecast: The Blue Grass Stakes has not proven to be a live prep for the Derby in some time, but that still feels random to me, at least over the last few years. I am not going to let that trend bother me in 2024. #8 Just a Touch is lightly raced and has only competed over a fast main track at two turns once in his career, but he has done little wrong and still has a ton of upside. Assuming a clean break, he should get a perfect pressing trip under Florent Geroux and should have no issue getting the added ground. I am hopeful he can turn the tables on Sierra Leone, who has been a model of consistency thus far for Chad Brown. The pricey Gun Runner colt has three wins in four tries, with the lone defeat coming by a nose in the mud to Dornoch in the Remsen (G2). It will take the ride of Tyler Gaffalione’s life from down inside to rally past perhaps the entire field, but this horse is classy and he can certainly finish. #17 Fierceness is the kind of horse I usually try to beat in the Derby. He has been awesome in his wins, but his inconsistency and inability to handle adversity are tough to overlook at a short price in a 20-horse field. I will only use him on tickets where I am keying in on prices in other horizontal legs. #4 Catching Freedom is the other Cox. He can definitely handle the distance, but under what scenario does he get the race shape he wants and out finishes Sierra Leone? #6 Just Steel is a big reach on top, but outside of his Rebel effort where he was caught wide, has been extremely consistent. He is a definite use underneath at a big price and perhaps worth including in horizontal spreads.
Good luck this weekend!
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