The Keeneland fall meet is nearly upon us, which means a massive Saturday afternoon card that includes five graded stakes, three Breeders’ Cup win and you’re in events, and an all-stakes Pick 5 that kicks off in Race 6. For those that get to go, I am jealous. Let’s see if we can’t beat a few favorites in this all-stakes sequence and have an enjoyable day wagering on one of the nicest venues American racing has to offer.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 6: Woodford (G2)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 7 Governor Sam; 8 Khadeem
Backups: 5 Doncho; 3 Joe Shiesty
Forecast: This 5.5-furlong dash over the Keeneland grass came up competitive. I will use a pair of runners as my top horses, including top pick #7 Governor Sam. Admittedly, I am slightly concerned that we might have seen the best from this George Weaver trainee, but he projects to get a perfect trip on the cutback after going a furlong further in the Franklin-Simpson (G1) at Kentucky Downs last month. He draws beautifully outside the main speeds and has a win already over this surface. I also like #8 Khadeem. The late running 9YO gelding hit the board in the Turf Sprint (G2) at Kentucky Downs for the second consecutive year. This time the Charlie Hills trainee stays in the States and tries the Keeneland turf for the first time in his career. He should be rolling late. #3 Joe Shiesty and #5 Doncho are likely to compromise each other’s chances on the front end, but if one breaks poorly the other is highly capable of taking this group gate-to-wire.
Race 7: TCA (G2)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Taxed; 6 Praying
Backups: None
Forecast: This is far from the strongest edition of the Thoroughbred Club of America, but I am hopeful it is a race I remember from a wagering perspective. #5 Vahva was made the heavy 7-5-ML favorite by oddsmaker Nick Tammaro and understandably so. The $2M earner has had a great career. That said, she is not the same mare she once was making her tough to get excited about wagering on. I will try to beat her with a pair of big prices. #1 Taxed cut back to a true sprint last out in the Open Mind and rode the rail into the lane, but was stopped and cost all chance to win. She certainly has to get back to her faster races to get to the wire first, but she meets a field without any world beaters. I think an improved effort should be expected from the Randy Morse trainee. #6 Praying is much different. She does not have the resume or experience of Taxed, but really put it altogether last out in the Prioress (G3). Regression is certainly within the range of outcomes, but a repeat puts the 3YO filly in the mix at a good price.
Race 8: First Lady (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3 Nanda Dea; 10 Ozara; 2 Raqiya
Backups: 7 Heredia; 1 Choisya; 13 Special Wan
Forecast: This one-mile Grade 1 for the ladies has been won by trainer Chad Brown in seven consecutive years. Brown has two entered this year, but I will try to beat lukewarm ML favorite #5 Dynamic Pricing and #9 Segesta with a number of rivals, including long shot top choice #3 Nanda Dea. No doubt it is concerning that the Nacho Correas IV trainee has not competed since a pair of wins in her first two North American starts. If she was a short price, I would probably look elsewhere, but Correas is retiring at the end of this year and moving to his home of Argentina. He has worked this mare regularly locally dating back to the start of August without missing a beat. It feels like this is his last big shot, so my hypothesis is this gal is ready to roll off the layoff. The fact Jose Ortiz is back to ride and she draws favorably along the inside both should work to her advantage. Hopefully, she outruns her odds.
Race 9: Breeders’ Futurity (G1)
Grade: X
Main Ticket: 6 Ted Noffey *pictured*
Backups: None
Forecast: I am swinging against the favorites in the first three legs, but I have zero desire trying to beat #6 Ted Noffey. The Spendthrift Farm colt ran well on debut and then took a huge step forward in his win in the Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga. He has to answer the two-turn question and run outside of New York for the first time, but he looks like a serious one for trainer Todd Pletcher.
Race 10: Turf Mile (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Program Trading; 10 Brilliant Berti
Backups: 4 Diego Velazquez; 9 Rhetorical
Forecast: The pace should be honest in this $1.25M race at one mile over the lawn, which should benefit both of my top horses in the final leg. #8 Program Trading makes his second start off a long layoff for trainer Chad Brown. The 5YO son of Lope De Vega ran well to finish second beaten just a neck in his return race at Saratoga. #1 Donegal Momentum held him off that day, but the circumstances are almost certain to be much different on Saturday. The Klaravich Stables ridgling appears poised for a big effort from off the pace. #10 Brilliant Berti has not had things his way very often of late. The Klein Racing runner needs to avoid a wide voyage from his outside draw, but should get a favorable race shape for his off the pace style. Expect him to be finishing with serious energy under Jose Ortiz after racing against the flow last out at Kentucky Downs.
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