One wager I have not written about on this blog, but enjoy quite a bit at Keeneland is the All- Turf Pick 3. Other tracks have picked up on this bet in one form or another, but it was created at Keeneland in 2021. It has a $3 minimum denomination, a player friendly 15% takeout, and is conducted over the last three turf races on the card. Hopefully we can get the week off to a good start with a score in this wager on Thursday afternoon.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 4:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3 Justifable Belle
Backups: 2 Lucky Speech; 1 Quality Star
Forecast: I am expecting an honest pace in this third-level allowance at 1 1/16-miles with #2 Lucky Speech drawn to the inside and #11 Join the Dance drawn to the far outside, but nothing too crazy. That should leave 5-2-morning line favorite #3 Justifiable Belle in a perfect spot early after a runner-up effort against similar at Kentucky Downs for trainer Ian Wilkes. In her last try, the Justify filly broke well, worked out a clean outside stalking trip, but was unable to hold off the eventual winner, Lute Warm, who has now rattled off four straight wins for trainer Brittany Russell. The 8.5-furlong distance is a bit of a question mark for the Justifiable Belle, but she is the one to beat nonetheless.
The aforementioned Lucky Speech may get pressed early on in this race, but she comes in off of a pair of victories at Ellis Park for trainer Joe Sharp. She was disrespected by the public in those wins going off at 15-1 in both runs and could be a double-digit price once again with Edgar Morales returning to ride. #1 Quality Star does not appear to be the same mare she once was, but loves it at Keeneland and should get a ground saving voyage under Brian Hernandez Jr. I will use both price options as backups.
Race 6:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Portofino; 8 Cruzin Man; 9 Gilded Ruler
Backups: None
Forecast: #6 Linzer is listed as the lukewarm 3-1-morning line choice in this second-level allowance event at 5.5-furlongs after a runner-up run versus similar at Kentucky Downs last month. The Carl Moore Management colt has the early zip to be involved early after a wire-to-wire score at Kentucky Downs in late August. He has hit the board in 8 of 11, but has had an affinity for running second making him difficult to trust unless he really has things his way on the front end. #4 Double Clutch also appears vulnerable despite a solid runner-up effort against similar last month. The Calumet Farm homebred fits well against these, but I have always thought of this gelding as a horse that wants a bit more ground than he gets in this spot. #2 B D Valeski also makes sense, but at 4-1 is worth fading. The Greg Foley trainee is honest, but is just 2 for 26 and 0 for 7 in 2024.
#1 Portofino is one I will include. The Speightster gelding ships in from Florida off of a third-place effort going one-mile over the Gulfstream lawn. If jockey Axel Concepcion is able to avoid getting caught in a tight spot along the inside, he is highly capable at a solid price for veteran conditioner Joe Orseno. I will also use #8 Cruzin Man. The speedy son of Chitu should be able to outsprint Linzer to the front. If so, he has proven more than capable of forgetting to stop. #9 Gilded Ruler is a big price, but worth inclusion. The 5YO gelding has not raced since February, but has races to go back to that win this. Hopefully we can separate from the public in this leg.
Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 11 Aussie Girl
Backups: 4 Saffron Moon
Forecast: Thursday’s All-Turf Pick 3 concludes with another third-level allowance at 8.5-furlongs and the pace should be hot in this one. #1 Tequilera is likely to go, along with #6 Samay and #12 She’s Lookin Lucky. I am hopeful this benefits #11 Aussie Girl. The Irish-bred filly makes her second start in the States after chasing a wire-to-wire buzzsaw in AG Bullet in the Ladies Turf Sprint (G2) in late August. In that North American debut, the William Walden trainee broke slowly from her far outside draw and really never had a fair shot. Now Walden stretches her out to two-turns and legs up one of the best in the world in Irad Ortiz Jr. I expect a big move forward with the addition of Lasix for the initial time.
#4 Saffron Moon is 2 for 2 at Keeneland and also should benefit from the likely race shape, but has not raced in 11 months. If she is able to relax off the long break and put forth her best, she will be tough to beat, but that is an obvious question for the 3-1-morning line favorite.
Good luck!
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