Scott Shapiro: Keeneland Spot Plays for Blue Grass Day Tuesday

It is Tuesday, it is somehow Blue Grass Stakes Day, and I am absolutely looking forward to it!

I am sure at this point most of you know about the weather that wreaked havoc on Kentucky over the past week pushing back the start of the Spring Meet a couple of days. The change of schedule leaves us with a Triple Crown Money Back Special Offer to take advantage of today, as well as a card that includes five graded stakes.


Race 2:

They were back on the grass for the feature on Monday and things went well, so I am hopeful we are back on the lawn for good for this 9-furlong MSW affair for 3YOs where I like #3 Kicking Clear. The Calumet Farm homebred has failed to hit the board in four starts, but has progressed nicely in those tries for trainer Brendan Walsh. Last out, the son of Keen Ice had no shot when stablemate Wait for Me dictated the early tempo and took a field gate-to-wire at one-mile over Turfway’s all-weather surface. That said, this colt finished well against the flow of the race and is bred to relish the added furlong. Hopefully, he takes to the surface switch and gets a lot more pace to chase with Edgar Morales getting the leg up for the initial time.

Play: #3 Kicking Clear (15-1 ML)



Race 7: Commonwealth (G3)

The pace should be contentious in the first leg of the All-Stakes Pick 4 in large part due to 3-1-morning line favorite #2 Montalcino. The Cherie DeVaux trainee is a head away from entering his first graded stakes start a perfect 4 for 4. The son of Take Charge Indy has speed and talent, but will likely have to work from start-to finish from his inside draw. This could make it difficult for him to get that final furlong.

The likely race shape should benefit #6 Hoist the Gold. The 6YO made his seasonal debut in mid-February at Fair Grounds and won convincingly as the 6-5-public choice. The Dallas Stewart trainee has clearly pointed to this spot working steadily in March in preparation for his second try off the bench. He has a win and 2 seconds in 3 starts over this racetrack and has an edge over several of his rivals at seven-eighths of a mile. I like his chances to spring the minor upset.

Play: #6 Hoist the Gold (9-2 ML)



Race 10: Blue Grass Stakes (G1)

The final major piece of the Kentucky Derby puzzle is one of those stakes and it is a challenging race to handicap despite just a compact group of 7. #1 River Thames was made the 5-2-morning line favorite after being nailed at the wire by Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth (G2). The Munnings colt has done little wrong thus far, but you rarely see a Todd Pletcher horse of ability get caught in that spot at Gulfstream Park. He is amongst those with a big chance to win, but I needed him last time and am unwilling to swallow the chalk.

I am hoping #3 Burnham Square puts himself back on the map after a flat fourth-place finish to Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth (G2). The Liam’s Map gelding came back a little quick after two big wins in Florida for Ian Wilkes. The Whitham Thoroughbreds homebred ran well on debut over this surface going far shorter than he prefers and I like the move to Brian Hernandez, Jr. Expect him to save ground early and come with his run when they hit the far turn. Hopefully he gets overlooked in the wagering.

Play:#3 Burnham Square (9-2 ML)

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