It is Closing Day at Keeneland on Saturday and not only does that mean the last race of the year in the Lexington area, but also horseplayers last chance to take advantage of Xpressbet and 1/ST BET’s Late Pick 4 Hit & Split. I am sure you know the drill by now when it comes to adding a share of $1M rewards points to your account, in addition to whatever the wager itself pays, so onto our last crack at this thing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 7:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7 Strike When Ready; 1 Beach Walkn
Backups: 11 Kehoe Beach
Forecast: The pace is likely to be hot in this second-level allowance event given the presence of #3 Neom Beach to the inside and #10 Maxisuperfly and 9-5-favorite #11 Kehoe Beach to the outside. This bodes well for #7 Strike When Ready. The 3YO filly has rattled off back-to-back victories since moving to trainer Nacho Correas barn earlier this year. She definitely gets a class test, but I love the way she overcame traffic issues on the far turn in her first start against winners at Horseshoe Indianapolis last out. Hopefully, she has another move forward in her. #1 Beach Walkn also makes sense. The Cross Traffic filly makes her third start off the bench after a third-place run against similar earlier on at the meet. The cutback to a mile and probable race shape are likely to benefit the Ben Colebrook trainee.
I will use Kehoe Beach as a backup. If the race plays out as I expect, she is going to really have it tough from her outside draw. On the other hand, she has run the fastest races, including her dominant win last out at Kentucky Downs, so if the pace is more moderate, she will be tough to catch late.
Race 8: Fayette (G2)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Tumbarumba (pictured)
Backups: 8 Hit Show
Forecast: #8 Hit Show is the deserving 2-1-morning line favorite in this year’s Fayette after rattling off back-to-back wins for trainer Brad Cox. The Candy Ride colt has not wowed during his victories in the West Virginia Governor’s (G3) or the Lukas Classic (G2), but was good enough to get the job done under regular rider Florent Geroux. The one concern is the pace. Will the 4YO get enough pace to run at to be at his best?
I will gamble that he will not with my old friend #2 Tumbarumba. The son of Oscar Performance has not won since January, but it is not for a lack of trying. Now he gets a field that lacks significant early zip. I am hopeful Luis Saez will do what he does best. Get out of the gate, set the pace, and have enough left late to win the lions’ share of this $350K purse.
Race 9: Bryan Station (G3)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3 Herchee; 11 Trikari
Backups: 6 Brilliant Bertie
Forecast: 2-1-morning line choice #11 Trikari makes his second start of the form cycle after an even fourth-place effort to Johannes in the City of Hope Mile (G2) at Santa Anita in late September. The Belmont Derby (G1) and American Turf (G2) winner brings the strongest resume into the race and is the one to beat, but the draw did him no favors. Perhaps this opens things up for a runner that can work out a better trip at a larger price.
#3 Herchee was good to me on debut at Churchill Downs in late June, so I do have a soft spot for him, but he also has done nothing wrong through three starts for trainer Helen Pitts. The son of Twirling Candy rattled off back-to-back wins before running second to #6 Brilliant Bertie in the Gun Runner at Kentucky Downs. In that runner-up run, the 3YO gelding was up and on a pace that fell apart and encountered some traffic issues at the top of the lane before splitting rivals and battling along the rail. He has not only shown a lot of ability, but some desire to fight to the wire now as well. I love his chances to outrun his 12-1-morning line odds in this one.
Brilliant Bertie merits respect as well. The Klein Racing homebred has shown a nose for the wire winning 4 of 6. His only defeat since his debut in February was to Trikari in the Secretariat (G2) in August. He should run his race once again.
Race 10:
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 8 Free Country
Backups: None
Forecast: The meet concludes with a high-level maiden claimer for 2YOs at six-furlongs where I like the chances of #10 Free Country quite a bit. The Dallas Stewart trainee took a good deal of support going off at 9-2 on debut in a field of twelve at Churchill Downs. In that first start, the Distorted Humor colt battled along the inside on a day where the outside was the place to be. Now, he moves off the inside and retains the services of Tyler Gaffalione. Hopefully, we get close to the 10-1 offering, but either way I will be taking my chances leaning on him in the final Pick 4 of the meeting.
Best of luck on closing day!
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