Monday's 10-race card at Keeneland is headlined by the Ashland (G1). With undercard races off the turf (the Transylvania is on the grass), I will focus on originally carded dirt races. Here are a few horses I will be leaning on today.
Race 5
The fifth race on a 10-race card means the end of the early Pick 5, as well as the start of the $39K carryover Pick 6. #11 Unwavering Trust makes for a potential single in either. The $750k OBS March 2024 purchase finished second on debut, but lost nothing in defeat following 6-5-favorite Ahavah to the wire. Ahavah came back to finish a very competitive second to undefeated Kentucky Oaks (G1) favorite Good Cheer in her next run. Not only did Unwavering Trust miss by less than two lengths, but did so with an outside stalking voyage while Ahavah was riding a very good rail. The Nyquist filly has a local 4-furlong drill since arriving in Kentucky and should handle this group of protected maidens.
Play: #11 Unwavering Trust (5-2 ML)
Race 7: Lafayette
#2 Colloquial is a nose away from being 2 for 2. The $240k Keeneland September 2023 purchase and comes into his first stakes start after posting a monster number on any metric you choose to use in New York in February. The Vekoma colt should get a fast pace to run at, but regression must be expected. The question is just how much. Trainer George Weaver has been hot of late, but is just 1 for 21 at Keeneland over the last five years making me willing to seek alternatives.
I will try to beat the 6-5-morning line favorite with #5 Gate to Wire. The Donegal Racing colt understandably tried two-turns over the main track last time in the Fountain of Youth (G2) after his dominant off the pace score in the Swale. The Munnings colt found the waters and distance to be too much, but should relish the cutback to one-turn. Hopefully, he gets something close to the setup he got in February in Florida. If he does, he should once again be finishing full of run.
Play: #5 Gate to Wire (9-2 ML)
Race 9: Ashland (G1)
Trainer Brad Cox has the heavy favorite for the Kentucky Oaks (G1) with Good Cheer and hopes to bring some backup power with #4 Muhimma. The Shadwell Stable filly rattled off three straight wins as a 2YO before finishing a disappointing third at odds-on in the Honeybee (G3) in February. It was difficult to make up ground that afternoon at Oaklawn Park, so perhaps it was a forgivable effort in her first start off a 2.5-month break. She is an obvious major player in the Opening Day feature, but I do not fully trust her.
#3 Supa Speed might not be much easier to trust since she is shipping cross-country after a nose defeat at even-money in the Santa Ysabel (G3). However, she should be at least double the price. Trainer John Sadler moved the Justify filly to the main track for the first time last out and she made a strong account of herself on the surface switch. I am only interested in wagering on her at her morning line price or higher since she has to prove herself over a new surface and shipping out of town, but she definitely possesses some serious upside.
Play: #3 Supa Speed (4-1 ML)
Best of luck on Ashland Day!
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