After a speed favoring Opening Day and an action-packed first Saturday, Keeneland closes their opening week of racing at the 2024 Fall Meet out with a strong 10-race card headlined by the $600k Spinster (G1). The 9-furlong affair for fillies and mares makes up the third leg of today’s late Pick 4, which once again offers a Hit & Split for 1 million rewards points on 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Just remember to register if you did not over the first couple of days. It is certainly worthwhile since it is continuing throughout the entire meet.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 7:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Tuscaloosa
Backups: 7 Dr. Saikali; 4 Built
Forecast: This MSW event for 2YOs at 7-furlongs looks a little top heavy with a pair of first-time starters that are likely to take a good deal of money. Of them, I prefer #8 Tuscaloosa. The $700k Keeneland September 2023 purchase is out of a Malibu Moon mare that won her debut by six lengths. His trainer Rodolphe Brisset used to clearly give his horses a race, but is far more likely now to have his runners ready to fire a big shot on debut. I think this colt does just that.
#7 Dr Saikali is the 3-1-morning line favorite. The son of Bolt d’Oro is a half-brother to Fire On Time, who was 6 for 16, earned over $500K, and won her first start back in 2021. Trainer Brad Cox is obviously capable. #4 Built finished a well-beaten fourth on debut, but chased yesterday’s Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner East Avenue to the wire. A move forward is certainly capable for the Wayne Catalano trainee.
Race 8: Indian Summer S.
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Pharoah’s Dynasty; 2 Chasing Liberty
Backups: None
Forecast: As often is the case, there appears to be a lot of early speed signed on in this 5.5-furlong turf sprint for 2YOs. In theory this should work out well for #2 Chasing Liberty who came with a big late run and was deservingly placed first via DQ when we saw him last at Kentucky Downs. It remains to be seen though how much that huge effort last month took out of him. I will use the Rob Atras runner, but prefer a horse he handled by double-digit lengths last out in #6 Pharoah’s Dynasty. The Wesley Ward trainee dominated a field on debut at Aqueduct in June before chasing and tiring in the Juvenile Sprint. Look for a potential change in tactics with Frankie Dettori jumping aboard for the first time. Hopefully, one of the best to ever ride the lawn can relax this colt early and come with a strong run late.
Race 9: Spinster (G1)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 Idiomatic (pictured)
Backups: None
Forecast: I was way against #1 Idiomatic last out in the Personal Ensign (G1) thinking that the star mare had seen better days. The daughter of Curlin got beat a head, but I could not have been more wrong. She did all the dirty work and got nailed on the wire by Raging Sea. That huge effort this summer at Saratoga may have taken a lot out of Idiomatic, but she is an absolute stand out in her attempt to win this Grade 1 event in back-to-back to years. Her lack of value is obvious making avoiding spreading deep elsewhere in the sequence a must, but she should handle this compact group under regular rider Florent Geroux.
Race 10: Bourbon (G2)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 9 Papiamento; 2 Warlander
Backups: 6 Cavallo Bay
Forecast: The card closes with a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf on the line in the $350k Bourbon for 2YOs traveling 1 1/16-miles. #2 Warlander is the understandable 7-2-morning line favorite. The Winchell Thoroughbreds colt has done little wrong thus far finishing third to the good-looking Cherie DeVaux runner States’ Rights before breaking his maiden at Kentucky Downs last out. The inside draw is also a positive. He makes a lot of sense, but the pace could be hot, which could put him in chase mode early on and set things up for a runner from further off the pace.
Trainer Whit Beckman added the blinkers to #9 Papiamento in his second career start and it led to an impressive victory at Saratoga at this same distance. The Medaglia d’Oro colt did get a perfect trip that day, but I loved the way he finished. He should offer fair value in the finale. #6 Cavallo Bay is likely to take public support returning to the races for trainer Charles Appleby. He makes his second start in the States and also could benefit if the pace is lively early on.
Best of luck on this Sunday Funday at Keeneland!
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