Editor's Note: These races are also part of a $190K pick 6 carryover that spans Races 4-9.
It is hard to believe, but the final Sunday of the Keeneland Fall Meet is already upon us. However, there is good news too. There are still five Keeneland racing days left to take advantage of Xpressbet and 1/ST BET’s ongoing Hit/Split in the Late Pick 4 this fall. $1M rewards points up for grabs! Closing week runs Wednesday through Saturday next week.
Let’s dive into the final four races on this 9-race Sunday card.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 6:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 11 Unhidden Gem; 3 Leo Toro
Backups: 9 Get Twisted
Forecast: The sequence kicks off with a first-level allowance event for fillies and mares going one-mile over the Keeneland sod. #12 Satin Blue enters this spot 1 for 7 in her career with 3 thirds. The 3-1-morning line favorite needed things her way on the front end at Kentucky Downs last month to finally breakthrough for her first lifetime score. It appears unlikely she will be able to dictate terms in a similar fashion in her first try at two-turns and against winners making her worth taking a shot against.
#3 Leo Toro earned her lone win over the main track at Horseshoe Indianapolis in August, but has been very competitive in her three turf tries as well. She comes in off an off the pace third at Kentucky Downs where she got off to a slow start, but that is not her norm. With a better break, she should get a favorable ground saving voyage under underrated turf rider, Declan Cannon. I will use her, as well as top pick #11 Unhidden Gem who lures Brian Hernandez Jr. back after a half-length score sprinting last month for trainer Al Stall Jr. The outside post is a concern, but the talent is hopefully there at a solid price to overcome the poor draw.
#9 Get Twisted is deserving of her double-digit morning line price since she has only raced once since last October and ran just okay in her first start going a route of ground in August at Ellis Park. That said, she adds the blinkers for the first time and has shown enough ability to believe there is still some upside to this Get Stormy filly.
Race 7:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5 Gunoe
Backups: 2 Piroli; 11 Raise Cain; 6 Red Run
Forecast: I am not in love with the favorite in this third-level allowance event over the main track either. #9 Hero Status has run some fast recent races in Southern California, but swallowing his 5-2-morning line price seems less than ideal. He clearly has soundness issues of some sort since he has been unable to string races together as a 5YO, plus his lone start at Keeneland against similar in April resulted in a last place run.
I like #5 Gunoe best. The $1M son of Into Mischief has not lived up to expectations thus far, but did turn a corner last summer when trainer Paulo Lobo removed the blinkers. He preceded to rattle off four consecutive in the money efforts, including a third place run against the flow at Churchill Downs in his first race off a 9.5-month break. He could be set for a career best at a juicy 10-1-morning line offering.
I will also include #2 Piroli who gets some much-needed class relief for Michael McCarthy, #6 Red Run who goes turf-to-dirt in his second start for Ron Moquett, and #11 Raise Cain who stretches out to 9-furlongs for the first time since last year’s Oklahoma Derby (G3).
Race 8: Dowager (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Surprisingly
Backups: 12 Neecie Marie; 1 Three Priests; 9 Eternal Hope
Forecast: The lone stake on the program is a 1 1/2-mile journey for the ladies over the Keeneland lawn where there is very little speed signed on. This should benefit #6 Surprisingly who stretches out off the freshening for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. The Mastery mare is winless on the year, but also has not found herself setting a moderate early tempo in any of those six starts. I like her chances to outrun her 6-1 odds with a prominently placed voyage under Irad Ortiz Jr.
#12 Neecie Marie is an obvious contender. The Pennsylvania-bred filly comes off a big win in the Ladies Marathon (G3), but has to prove she can replicate that Kentucky Downs effort over the Keeneland lawn. Plus, she is unlikely to get a favorable race shape, which could leave her far too much to do late. European imports #1 Three Priests and #9 Eternal Hope also make plenty of sense. Three Priests ran third to Neece Marie in her Stateside debut and had some traffic issues along the inside, while Eternal Hope has the tactical speed to be prominent if they go slow early. Frankie Dettori rides for the initial time.
Race 9:
Grade: C
Main Ticket: 3 Sell It; 6 Coastertothemoon; 9 Man of Mischief; 5 Bliderberg; 1 Golden Goal
Backups: None
Forecast: The week of racing concludes with a $30k maiden claimer for 2YOs at six panels where I lack a strong opinion. #9 Man of Mischief ran a pair of strong races to kick off his career for Kenny McPeek, but his last couple have left a lot to be desired. The New York-bred drops out of state-bred MSW company in for a tag for the first time. I am not in love with the pattern, but that does not mean he is a total toss in this spot.
#4 All the Luck makes sense on paper, but trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. is just 1 for 12 as of Saturday morning at the meet and is just 7 for 69 at Keeneland over the last three years making him tough to get excited about at 3-1. #3 Sell It makes sense coming off a third-place effort against better at Churchill Downs, but has already had four chances for trainer John Ennis, so his ceiling is limited. I will use him though, as well as the morning line favorite, and a few others that have just one start under their belt.
Good luck!
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