The second Saturday of the 2024 Keeneland Fall Meet is headlined by the $750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1). The nine-furlong affair for 3YO fillies drew a solid group of ten led by 5-2-morning line favorite #3 She Feels Pretty and a pair of European imports #5 Soprano and #10 Candala. The featured event goes as Race 8 making it part of Xpressbet and 1/ST BET’s Late Pick 4 Hit & Split available every day of the 17-day meet. Remember to register if you have not done so thus far. Here are my thoughts:
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 7:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Truthorconsequence; 6 Keepsake
Backups: 11 Super Costly
Forecast: Little went right for #1 Truthorconsequence in her debut run at Churchill Downs last month for trainer Wayne Catalano. The Tom’s d’Etat filly broke a touch slow from her inside draw and then was caught in a very tricky spot in between rivals on the backstretch. This is exactly the trip you are not looking for with a first-time starter. Whether she gets a better one in this MSW event for 2YO fillies at 6-furlongs remains to be seen, but she attracts Irad Ortiz Jr. and is 15-1 on the morning line. #6 Keepsake is much more obvious. The Brad Cox trainee is a full-sister to Pastor T who won first out at Del Mar in August of ’23 and never raced again. She has worked well in preparation for her debut and attracts Flavien Prat.
#11 Super Costly did not run that well against lesser in her first start at Delaware Park, but I expect a move forward in this one at a big price. The Dialed In filly returns to the races for a barn that is 12 for 58 over the last five years with a $2.08 ROI with 2YO’s making their second career start. I will use the McLean Robertson runner as a backup.
Race 8: Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Soprano
Backups: 10 Candala
Forecast: I have been a big fan of #3 She Feels Pretty ever since I saw her debut at Ellis Park last summer. The Karakontie filly has a lot of talent and should have won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf, but I am concerned she has not moved forward much as a 3YO. She has failed in back-to-back-races at odds-on and now takes on a serious group of fillies from across the globe. I am going to try to beat her with the two European imports.
Of the two, I prefer #5 Soprano who ships to the States in the best form of her career. She comes in off a strong third in the Coolmore America Justify Matron (G1) at odds of 14-1 and should relish her first voyage at the nine-furlong distance. I will also include #10 Candala. The French-bred daughter of Frankel has not won since April, but has been freshened up off a pair of third-place performances against Grade 2 foes this summer. She draws to the far outside, which is not ideal, but still makes a lot of sense in her first Stateside try.
Race 9:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 King Kumbalay; 11 Komorebino Omoide
Backups: 5 Parchment Party; 2 Elusive Target
Forecast: This second-level allowance event at two-turns goes through 9-5-morning line favorite #11 Komorebino Omoide. The Japanese-bred has not raced since a pair of third place finishes against Grade 3 competition in West Virginia in August. The son of California Chrome has run the fastest races to date, but has yet to do it on this circuit making him a bit tough to trust at a likely short price. #5 Parchment Party is also an interesting proposition. The Constitution colt showed a ton of talent coming from off the pace to win a pair of 1 1/16-mile races at Churchill Downs last year for Hall of Famer Bill Mott, but has not raced since. His ability is obvious, but will he just find his form after being off for over eleven months? Both are tough to toss, but also difficult to push all in with.
#4 King Kumbalay interests me in his second start off the bench for trainer Nacho Correas. The 6YO gelding has run some races good enough to win this over his 24-race career and shook off the rust last out in a common race in Louisville on September 15. With a better start, he should run well with Jose Ortiz returning to ride. #2 Elusive Target is a bit of a reach, but I like that trainer Mike Maker re-claimed him for $80k last out and moves him back to dirt right away. At 15-1, I will include as a backup.
Race 10:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 5 Blue Coast; 6 The Brigade; 8 Enterdadragon; 14 Look to the Cross
Backups: None
Forecast: #5 Blue Coast is likely to take plenty of support in the finale after being bet down to favoritism in both of his first two starts for Brendan Walsh. The Omaha Beach colt ran faster in his two-turn debut than in his sprint versus allowance foes at Kentucky Downs, so I like the stretch out to eight-furlongs. That said, if he wants the lead, he will have to earn it given the presence of #1 Poster and #12 Curahee. I will include the Qatar Racing colt but also a few runners at bigger prices that hopefully can take advantage of the potential contentious first half-mile.
#6 The Brigade finished off the board in his first start in Kentucky for Mark Casse, but his effort two-back at Colonial Downs fits well with these. I will use the son of War of Will, as well #8 Enterdadragon who attracts Irad Ortiz Jr and moves back to the sod for his fifth career start and #14 Look to the Cross who looks to make it two in a row for Kenny McPeek and Brian Hernandez Jr.
Good luck with another challenging Keeneland sequence!
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