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It is Sunday, April 12, which means it is the second of five chances at our month-long Keeneland Late Pick 4 Hit & Split promotion. If you missed it Wednesday no worries. Just register for the promotion, connect on the late Pick 4 later today in Kentucky, and collect your share of 2 million 1/ST Rewards Points. Here are my thoughts on today’s very playable sequence.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 6:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 Take Charge Omaha
Backups: 2 Landed
Forecast: The Sunday late Pick 4 commences with a second-level allowance at 1 1/8-miles over the main track where #2 Landed was made the 7-5-ML favorite by oddsmaker Nick Tammaro. The NY-bred has won 5 of 11, possesses early speed, and has hit the board in all three tries over this surface, but is far from a cinch. The Wesley Ward trainee is likely to take pressure throughout, which should set things up for #1 Take Charge Omaha. The 4YO filly makes her first start since New Year’s Day when she was beaten handily in a restricted stake in Arkansas. Trainer Matthew Sims has given her time and pointed her to the spring. The Omaha Beach filly has a win and a third in two starts over the Keeneland main track and should get a favorable ground saving voyage off the honest early pace.
Race 7: Giant’s Causeway (G2)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 Movin’ On Up; 8 Big Trouble; 4 Egyptian Mau
Backups: 5 Gratefully
Forecast: There is no doubt that scratches will play a key role in this year’s oversubscribed field for the Giant’s Causeway since one of the favorites is not in the main body of the field. #13 Shining Star needs a defection to get into the Grade 2 turf sprint, but if she gets in, she is a serious contender coming off three dominant wins against lesser for trainer Brad Cox. She changes the math for me if in, because if not I am going to hope to separate from the public by using three prices equally. #1 Movin’ On Up cuts back to a sprint for the first time in ages for Saffie Joseph. The pace should be contentious, so I am giving this mare a chance to save ground throughout and come with a big run on the turnback. #4 Egyptian Mau is a bit of a reach, but has had not a chance in either of her two races back off the break. She finally should get an honest pace to chase. #8 Big Trouble was beaten handily by Shining Star last out, but comes in fresh and draws more favorably off the inside. She could be sitting on a big one at a big price. If Shining Star gets in, she will create more pace, but also be the clear one to beat.
Race 8:
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 8 Civil Liberty; 7 Mo the Merrier
Backups: None
Forecast: A strong MSW at 7-furlongs over the main track is up next where I will go two deep with confidence. #8 Civil Liberty exits the best maiden race for 3YOs at the Classic Meet at Santa Anita Park where he was beaten a neck by next out winner Crude Velocity. The Doug O’Neill runner has taken on high-quality competition in all four career starts and looms the cone to beat on the ship east. That said, the tote will show it, so I will also use second-time starter #7 Mo the Merrier. The son of Uncle Mo debuted at Fair Grounds at the tail end of their meet in New Orleans and put in a solid second from well off the pace. It appeared to be exactly what McPeek/Hernandez like to get out of the first start of horses they believe in. Expect improved speed and a strong run in career start number two.
Race 9:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 End of Romance; 5 Capitol Hill; 7 Tough Little Nut; 10 Tenacious Leader
Backups: 9 Pitkin
Forecast: The favorites in this second-level allowance over the sod to close the week of racing all drew to the outside, which presents challenges for all of their riders making this more wide-open than it might seem on paper. 3-1-ML favorite #11 Iron Man Cal was flat as a pancake in his first start off the bench and against older runners in Southern California last out. He is difficult to get excited about from his outside draw. #9 Pitkin and #10 Tenacious Leader are a bit easier to make cases for if their ML’s stuck, but I still am not in love with their chances. I will get some coverage here in another race that could produce a price.
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